Research On Manufacturing Upgrading Effects Of Enterprises' Investment And Financing Behavior Under Demand Shocks

The structural evolution,transformation and upgrading of the industry are not only the objective result of the competitive behavior of enterprises under the market mechanism,but also a concrete manifestation of the guidance of industrial policies and the impact of external shocks.One of the long-term issues raised by the “supply-side structural reform” to the Chinese economics community is how to scientifically grasp the market's transmission paths,mechanisms and effects,accurately determine the possible impact of exogenous shocks on various industries,and reasonably anticipate policies The market effect of the market,and then precise policies for industrial upgrading and even the high-quality development of the national economy.The manufacturing industry is an important part of the real economy,the key support for the development of the national economy and the ultimate manifestation of the country's core competitiveness.It is undoubtedly of great strategic significance to study the market mechanism and transmission path of manufacturing upgrades.In recent years,the Sino-US trade friction and the new crown pneumonia epidemic have brought severe demand shocks and industrial chain destruction to China's manufacturing industry.During the period of demand shocks,how to ensure the manufacturing industry on the basis of a better combination of an effective market and a promising government? Upgrading and high-quality development are issues that urgently need to be considered and resolved at this stage.To answer this question,this paper studies the manufacturing upgrade effects of corporate investment and financing under demand shocks,and reveals the micro transmission mechanism of manufacturing upgrades during the demand shock from the perspective of micro-firm investment and financing behaviors.The research in this paper hopes to provide theoretical basis and empirical support for realizing the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry and building a manufacturing power in the current increasingly complex domestic and international environment,and to provide a realistic basis and guarantee for deepening the supply-side structural reform.Based on the perspective of micro-enterprises,this dissertation combines the basic national conditions and economic conditions at the current stage of development,adopts a combination of theoretical deduction and empirical analysis,and uses listed company data to develop a more systematic view of the manufacturing upgrade effects of corporate investment and financing under demand shocks.Research.First,from the two dimensions of the micro transmission mechanism of investment and financing of manufacturing upgrade and the dynamic evolution mechanism of enterprise investment and financing behavior under the framework of demand shock,the micro transmission mechanism of manufacturing upgrade under demand shock is sorted out,and on this basis,proposed The theoretical expectation of the manufacturing upgrade effect of corporate investment and financing behavior under demand shocks;secondly,based on the data of listed manufacturing companies,a reasonable method of using micro-enterprise data to characterize demand shocks and industrial upgrading is proposed,and the demand shock's impact on corporate investment and financing behaviors is analyzed.It describes the dynamic characteristics of manufacturing upgrades under demand shocks in the new era.Finally,based on theoretical analysis,combined with the data of listed manufacturing companies,from the perspective of corporate innovation investment behavior selection,it explores corporate investment behaviors under demand shocks.And test the effect differences of enterprises with different ownerships;combined with the choice of corporate innovation investment behavior,from the perspective of financing mode selection,this paper studies the manufacturing upgrade effect of corporate financing behavior under demand shocks,and explores the effects of enterprises with different ownerships.Heterogeneity;the introduction of economic stimulus policies into the analysis framework of the micro-transmission mechanism of manufacturing upgrades,combined with the "four trillion" stimulus plan of the Chinese government after the international financial crisis in2008,the impact of economic stimulus policies on manufacturing upgrades under the impact of demand Start research.The main research content and related conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,combining mathematical and logical deduction methods,it analyzes the impact of demand shocks on micro-enterprises' investment and financing behaviors,which in turn affects the transmission mechanism of manufacturing upgrades,and further proposes the theoretical expectations of manufacturing upgrade effects of companies' investment and financing behaviors under demand shocks.First,from the perspectives of micro-enterprise investment behavior and financing behavior,we sorted out the micro-transmission mechanism of manufacturing upgrading,and found that manufacturing companies can achieve industrial upgrading through two innovative investment paths: R&D innovation and raising capital-labor ratio.Restrain the upgrading of the manufacturing industry,and the increase in equity financing will promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Secondly,from the perspectives of the role of demand shocks on corporate investment and financing behavior and the role of policies on corporate investment and financing behavior under demand shocks,the dynamic evolution mechanism of corporate investment and financing behavior under the framework of demand shocks was sorted out,and the increase in demand levels was found.There is a positive impact on the scale of corporate investment and financing,but the impact of changes in demand on innovative investment under different conditions is different;fiscal and industrial policies can promote investment levels through subsidies and tax channels,and monetary policy through interest rates and credit rationing Channels affect the financing behavior of companies.Finally,from three perspectives: the manufacturing upgrade effect of corporate investment,the manufacturing upgrade effect of corporate financing,and the impact of economic stimulus policies on the manufacturing upgrade,the theoretical expectations of the manufacturing upgrade effect of corporate investment and financing behavior under demand shocks are given.The product innovation behavior selection model puts forward the theoretical expectation that the greater the market demand,the more prominent the manufacturing upgrade effect of corporate investment;through the introduction of demand shocks into the financing model selection mechanism framework for manufacturing upgrades,it is proposed that negative demand shocks will enhance debt financing The inhibitory effect on manufacturing upgrades will strengthen the theoretical expectation that equity financing will promote manufacturing upgrades;combined with the mechanism of fiscal policy and monetary policy on corporate innovation investment and financing during the period of negative demand shocks,a period of negative demand shocks is proposed,The economic stimulus policy may promote the industrial upgrading of non-state-owned enterprises in the manufacturing industry stronger than the theoretical expectations of state-owned enterprises.Secondly,based on the data of Chinese manufacturing A-share listed companies,the law of corporate investment and financing behavior under demand shocks and the dynamic characteristics of manufacturing upgrades are studied.First,clearly use the operating income growth rate as an observation indicator of demand shock.After comparing the difference between the micro demand shock measurement method and the macro and industry data measurement method,it is found that the demand shock measurement method using listed company data can be used to a greater extent.The above reflects the characteristics of the industry and macroeconomic operations.Secondly,empirically tested the impact of demand shocks on corporate investment and financing behaviors,and found that demand shocks have a significant positive impact on corporate investment and financing behaviors;during periods of negative demand shocks,the magnitude of investment changes brought about by increased demand is relatively low;during periods of positive shocks Increased demand has a greater positive effect on debt financing;increased demand during positive shocks has a positive impact on equity financing,but the increase in demand during negative shocks will inhibit the rise of equity financing;during positive demand shocks,demand will increase At times,the investment behavior of state-owned enterprises and equity financing are more sensitive to changes in demand;in the period of negative demand shock,state-owned enterprises can obtain more debt financing when demand decreases,and the distortion of credit resource allocation is more obvious in the period of negative demand shock.Finally,it is determined that in the research of this dissertation,R&D expenditure and capital-labor ratio are used as the observation indicators of the manufacturing upgrade process,and the labor productivity level is used as the observation indicator of the results of the manufacturing upgrade,and the dynamic evolution characteristics of the manufacturing upgrade under the demand shock are further analyzed.,Found that negative demand shocks can promote the increase of capital-labor ratio,but have a strong inhibitory effect on R&D innovation and labor productivity;under the same shock level,non-state-owned enterprises have higher R&D expenditure and labor productivity,while state-owned enterprises Have a higher ratio of capital to labor.Thirdly,from the perspective of enterprise investment selection behavior under demand shocks,based on the theoretical analysis framework of enterprise innovation investment decision-making,combined with the threshold effect model of investment and capital labor ratio,investment and labor productivity,it analyzes the enterprise under different demand shocks.The choice of innovative investment behavior and the manufacturing upgrade effect of corporate investment behavior.The study found that for the manufacturing upgrade process represented by the capital-labor ratio,overall corporate investment behavior has a significant positive impact on its changes;when the degree of the positive demand shock gradually increases,the corporate investment level will affect the capital-labor ratio change The positive impact of the value is gradually weakened;compared with the positive demand shock,the negative demand shock is easier to raise the level of innovation investment of enterprises.For the results of manufacturing upgrades characterized by labor productivity,overall corporate investment behavior has a significant positive impact on its improvement;when the degree of positive demand shock gradually increases,the positive impact of corporate investment level on productivity improvement first increases and then It has gradually weakened;a moderate positive demand shock is more conducive to enhancing the manufacturing upgrade effect of corporate investment.In the division of ownership,when the demand shock is within a certain range,state-owned enterprise investment is more conducive to the improvement of capital-labor ratio and productivity.When the demand shock exceeds a certain limit,the manufacturing upgrade effect of non-state-owned enterprise investment is more dominant;state-owned enterprises and There is a difference in the demand shock threshold of the impact of non-state-owned enterprise investment behavior on the change of capital-labor ratio.The manufacturing upgrade effect of state-owned enterprise investment decreases with the deepening of the positive demand shock,while the manufacturing upgrade effect of non-state-owned enterprise investment increases with the increase.The deepening of the impact of positive demand presents an inverted U-shaped characteristic.Fourthly,the demand shock is introduced into the analysis framework of the mechanism of financing behavior on manufacturing upgrades.Based on the panel fixed effect model and the panel logit model that include interaction terms,it studies the impact of debt financing and equity financing on manufacturing upgrades under different demand shocks.Mechanism.The study found that negative demand shocks will reduce the scale of corporate financing,and the decline in debt financing is very significant,while equity financing has declined relatively slowly;in general,debt financing has shown a restraining effect on the upgrading of manufacturing,while equity financing has shown an effect on the upgrading of manufacturing.Positive impact;compared with positive demand shocks,debt financing under negative shocks has a more serious negative impact on manufacturing upgrades,but equity financing has a more prominent role in promoting manufacturing upgrades;after distinguishing ownership,it is found that negative demand Under the shock,state-owned enterprises have the advantage of debt financing,but due to the rapid capital deepening,it is difficult to promote the upgrading of manufacturing through debt financing;debt financing has a stronger inhibitory effect on the R&D expenditure of non-state-owned enterprises,and non-state-owned enterprises under the negative demand shock It is easier to raise the level of R&D expenditure through equity financing,thereby promoting the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.Fifthly,in order to explore the role and mechanism of economic policies on the upgrading of manufacturing under demand shocks,the "four trillion" economic stimulus policy is introduced into the analysis framework of the manufacturing upgrading mechanism,and the impact of the construction of economic stimulus policies on the upgrading process and results of enterprises The double difference model found that the attributes of state-owned enterprises have a significant negative impact on the capital-labor ratio and labor productivity;compared with before the implementation of the economic stimulus policy,after the implementation of the economic stimulus policy,the capital-labor ratio and labor ratio of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises The significant increase in productivity differences indicates that economic stimulus policies have not effectively promoted the industrial upgrading of state-owned manufacturing enterprises.By constructing a double differential model of economic stimulus policies affecting corporate investment and financing behaviors,we further tested the transmission mechanism of economic stimulus policies on manufacturing upgrades,and found that compared with before the implementation of economic stimulus policies,state-owned economic stimulus policies during the The difference in investment scale between enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises has expanded significantly,and economic stimulus policies have allowed more financial resources to flow to state-owned enterprises through debt financing,but they can encourage non-state-owned enterprises to raise more funds in the stock market,thus promoting state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises.The continuous differentiation of the enterprise's industrial upgrading behavior and characteristics.