The Production Routing Problem Under Uncertain Environment

Uncertainty generally exists in all part of the supply chain,and the cost,market demand,and time in the supply chain may be uncertain.These uncertain factors have become more and more significant with the rapid development of e-commerce on the supply chain.The uncertainty in the supply chain affects or interweaves and affects the operation of the supply chain,so it is very necessary to study the uncertainty of the supply chain.In addition,under the background of globalization and informatization,enterprises are facing increasingly fierce and complex market competition environment,and the competition between enterprises has gradually evolved into competition between enterprise groups and even between supply chains and supply chains.This puts forward higher requirements for the company and its supply chain,requiring the company to regard itself as a member of the entire supply chain,share information with other members,coordinate plans and process business processes,in a brand-new business operation model provides fast,flexible and efficient support and services to the final customers.Under this model,the overall coordinated decision-making of the supply chain will replace the traditional partial decentralized decision-making in order to quickly respond to market demand and changes.The overall coordinated decisionmaking of the supply chain involves multiple business flow links in the supply chain,and the uncertainty of each link in the supply chain will also have an important impact on the overall coordinated decision-making of the supply chain.Based on this,this paper studies the production-path collaborative decision-making optimization problem under uncertain environment.Based on the uncertainty theory,we pay attention to the cost uncertainty,demand uncertainty,time uncertainty,etc.in the supply chain,and introduce a production-path coordination model with a high degree of coordination.Through the joint scheduling of production and transportation,supply The production,distribution,storage and transportation routes in the chain make coordinated decision-making.At the same time,the uncertainty sensitivity analysis is carried out to explore the influence of uncertain factors on the production-route coordinated decisionmaking.(1)Production path collaborative decision optimization in uncertain environment based on cost optimizationthe market demand uncertainty and cost uncertainty are both considered,including production cost,storage cost,transportation cost and other uncertainties.In order to meet different decision-making needs,based on the common uncertain decision-making criteria,three kinds of uncertain collaborative decision-making optimization models are constructed:expected minimum cost model;(?,?)-minimum cost model;maximum credibility model.Then,the inverse distribution criterion is used to transform the uncertain decision optimization model under three kinds of common uncertain situations,such as linear,zigzag and normal,to obtain the deterministic decision optimization model with uncertain variable characteristic parameters and reliability level.Finally,the model is solved by numerical experiments,and the influence of reliability level and uncertain variable characteristic parameters on the model solution is analyzed,and the influence of uncertain demand and uncertain cost on production path collaborative decision-making is discussed.(2)Research on production-route collaborative decision-making optimization under uncertain environment with multiple heterogeneous vehiclesRefine the prohibition of short-selling in the environment of uncertain demand,and expand the transportation optimization to the case of multiple heterogeneous vehicles:propose a(?,?)-minimizing cost model based on homogeneous vehicles in the case of multiple vehicles and based on heterogeneous vehicles(?,?)-minimize the cost model;In order to improve the efficiency of model solving,a number of uncertainty inequalities are proposed;further analyze how the reliability level,demand uncertainty and cost uncertainty under the prohibition of short sales are comprehensively affected The solution of the model.(3)Research on storage policy in an environment with uncertain demandThis part mainly focuses on the research of storage policy under the situation of uncertain demand.Uncertainty in demand often derives from uncertainty in the number of remaining products at retailers in each cycle.At this time,storage policies such as ML and OU under certain circumstances will no longer apply.Therefore,first define the three storage policies UMLI,UML and UOU under the uncertain demand environment;then conduct the analysis of the influencing factors of the uncertain storage policy,the comparison with the certain storage policy and the comparative analysis of the three uncertain storage policies;finally Based on the(?,?)-cost minimization model of heterogeneous vehicles,the uncertain storage policy is incorporated into the(?,?,?)cost minimization model considering storage constraints and numerical experiments are performed to verify the analysis conclusions.(4)Research on production-path collaborative decision-making optimization under uncertain environment considering response timeWith the intensification of market competition and the increase of uncertainty,the rapid response of enterprises and their supply chains to market demand is crucial.This part focuses on time uncertainty,and studies the production-path collaborative decisionmaking optimization problem in an uncertain environment considering response time.Since the production-path collaborative decision-making optimization problem can be regarded as the integration of the mass production planning problem and the vehicle scheduling problem,the response time is defined as the sum of the mass production time and the vehicle transportation time.The uncertainty of response time includes the uncertainty of product production time and vehicle transportation time under the mass production planning mode.First,a minimum-maximum expected completion time decision model is proposed,and then based on the pessimistic value and optimistic value criteria,the response time pessimistic value constraint and the response time optimistic value constraint are proposed,and then the time window constraint(?,?,?,?)minimize the cost model.Similarly,the deterministic equivalent conversion of the uncertain decision-making optimization model is carried out,and finally the converted deterministic decision-making model is solved through numerical experiments,and the sensitivity analysis of time uncertainty is carried out to explore the influence of time uncertainty on production-path the impact of collaborative decision-making.This paper studies the overall production-path collaborative decision-making and optimization problems in an uncertain environment,focusing on the uncertainties of demand,cost,time,etc.,first of all,the cost uncertainty problem in the production-path collaborative decision-making optimization problem,based on Three common uncertain decision criteria propose three uncertain collaborative decision-making optimization models;then focus on the demand uncertainty problem in the production-path collaborative decision-making optimization problem,and refine the prohibition of shortsale constraints under the uncertain demand environment.Expand to the situation of multiple heterogeneous vehicles;then focus on the storage policy research under the uncertain demand environment,define three uncertain storage policies under the uncertain demand,and further analyze their impact on the production-path collaborative decision-making;finally focus on the production-The time uncertainty problem in path collaborative decision-making optimization,based on response time optimization and cost optimization under time constraints,two uncertain collaborative decision-making models are constructed.Based on the uncertainty theory,the constructed uncertain collaborative decision-making model is transformed into a deterministic equivalent,and then the model is solved through numerical experiments.Further carry out uncertainty sensitivity analysis and draw relevant analysis conclusions.The total cost of the production-path coordination system increases with the increase in the level of reliability;the uncertainty of demand,cost and time also affects the total cost,but it depends on the level of reliability.Under the environment of demand uncertainty,demand uncertainty and reliability levels have an impact on UML and UOU storage policies,and further affect the total cost of the production-path coordination system:when the reliability level is high,the variance of the uncertain demand increases,the cost under the UML policy gradually increases,while the cost under the UOU policy gradually decreases.When the variance and reliability level increase to a certain level,the relative cost difference under the two storage policies approaches zero.The research in this paper provides technical solutions for enterprises and supply chain decision makers to make overall collaborative decision-making under uncertain environments,and helps enterprises and supply chains to make reasonable decisions and respond quickly when faced with complex uncertain environments,and improve customer satisfaction.Degree and enhance competitiveness.