Research On The Measurement Of China's Tax Reduction Space And The Effect Of Economic Growth

The macro tax burden reflects the concentration degree of the government in the distribution of the total national economy,and is an important indicator to measure the tax burden of residents and enterprises in a country.China's economic growth has entered a "sub high speed era".It is of great significance to implement a dynamic balance of macro tax policies for economic development and social welfare.At present,China's social and economic development is facing some new situations and challenges,and the macro adjustment space left by tax policy is greatly squeezed.Therefore,based on the theoretical perspectives of tax burden,macroeconomic growth and public goods supply,this paper explores the economic growth effect and action mechanism of China's macro tax burden through the comparison of different caliber macro tax burdens,the calculation of optimal macro tax burden,and the estimation of tax reduction scale space,so as to comprehensively design and implement the optimal macro tax policy for the government The economic and social effects of the tax reduction policy can provide decision-making reference.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the overall level of China's macro tax burden is not high,showing a "U-shaped" evolution trend with obvious regional differences.China's macro tax burden is not high.The average macro tax burden of small,medium and large caliber is about14.98%,18.26% and 29.36%,which is also lower than the average level of major middle and high-income countries in the world.Since the reform and opening up,the evolution of China's macro tax burden with small,medium and large caliber shows a "U-shaped" curve trend,and the tax structure has changed greatly.In 1985,the macro tax burden of small,medium and large caliber "converged",reached the historical lowest point in 1996,and then gradually fell back after reaching a new peak in 2015.At the same time,China takes value-added tax,business tax,enterprise income tax,personal income tax and consumption tax as the main taxes,accounting for about 77.6%of the total tax revenue.The sum of enterprise income tax and personal income tax accounts for about one third of the total tax revenue.On the whole,China has formed a modern tax system structure with "tax revenue as the main part,non tax income as the supplement","turnover tax and income tax as the main category,property tax,resource tax and specific behavior tax as the supplement","indirect tax as the main and direct tax as the auxiliary".Of course,there are obvious regional heterogeneity in China's eastern,central and western regions and 31 provinces.The eastern,central and western regions show a "V-shaped tax collapse" pattern of "high tax burden in eastern and western regions and low tax burden in Central China",and there are some differences in tax burden structure and optimal tax rate.Second,the economic growth effect of provincial macro tax burden level and tax structure is obvious,and there is an optimal tax point.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 1999 to 2018,this paper studies the relationship between macro tax burden level,tax burden structure and economic growth and its transmission mechanism.Firstly,there is a significant "inverted U" relationship between provincial macro tax burden and economic growth.The optimal macro tax rate may be between 19.78% and22.93%,and the optimal tax point may be about 20%,and there is regional heterogeneity.Secondly,there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between tax burden structure and economic growth,and there is a complex mechanism.In terms of different taxes,there is a U-shaped relationship between value-added tax,business tax and economic growth;there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between consumption tax,enterprise income tax and economic growth,while individual income tax has a significant positive impact on long-term economic growth;in terms of different types of taxes,there is an unstable inverted U-shaped relationship between turnover tax,property tax and economic growth,and there is a significant difference between income tax and economic growth In the inverted n-type relationship,there is a significant positive relationship between resource taxes and economic growth,while specific behavior taxes have no significant impact on economic growth.On the whole,in order to achieve the optimal tax collection,the national and regional provinces need to comprehensively consider the dynamic role of the core elements such as economic development,fiscal deficit,policy expectations,collection and management capacity,tax burden structure,international environment and so on.According to the actual macroeconomic situation,the government should optimize and adjust the level and structure of tax burden in a timely manner,gradually adjust and control the macro tax burden in a reasonable range and maintain it near the optimal tax rate on the whole,so as to realize the sustainable development of economic growth scale and economic growth rate.Third,the provincial industrial structure,investment and consumption structure,and labor capital factor production are important transmission mechanisms of the relationship between macro tax burden and economic growth.Industrial structure upgrading,investment and consumption structure,labor capital factor production and other endogenous growth factors have positive and negative effects on economic growth.These core elements play a key intermediary role in the relationship between macro tax burden,tax burden structure and economic growth,which will greatly affect the macro tax burden level and tax structure to achieve optimal economic growth.On the whole,the impact of macro tax burden on economic growth is mainly realized through the upgrading of industrial structure,government investment and labor productivity.On the one hand,the level of macro tax burden directly affects the upgrading of industrial structure,government investment and labor productivity,and there is an optimal tax rate.These core elements not only have an obvious direct positive effect on economic growth,but also interact with the macro tax burden level to promote economic growth.On the other hand,the adjustment of the proportion of the main tax burden structure such as consumption tax,enterprise income tax and income tax can also promote the continuous improvement of economic industrial structure and labor productivity,and promote the long-term economic development.In particular,increasing the proportion of corporate income tax and personal income tax may produce short-term inhibition and long-term promotion effect on economic growth.On the other hand,property tax and resource tax may have a long-term positive impact on economic growth on the basis of effective coordination with labor productivity and capital productivity.The government should gradually increase the proportion of direct tax such as income tax,reduce the proportion of indirect tax such as turnover tax and reduce the proportion of resource tax and specific behavior tax,and establish a modern tax system with tax efficiency and fair tax burden.Fourth,tax reduction has a significant positive impact on economic growth.In the future,there will be some structural tax reduction or tax increase space in China.Based on the national data from 1978 to 2019,it is found that in the short term,the scale of economic growth will decrease by 0.92% for every 1% increase in macro tax burden level,and 0.93% for every 1% increase in government public expenditure;the absolute value of economic growth rate will increase by 0.12% for every 1% increase of macro tax burden in the short term,which can be ignored ? According to the calculation,the optimal macro tax rate of China is about 20.07%,and the future tax burden reduction proportion is about 5.07 percentage points.The space scale of tax reduction is about5270.246 billion yuan,5220.053 billion yuan and 5169.860 billion yuan respectively in the future economic growth rate of 5%,4% and 3%.But in 2020,the actual tax reduction scale will be about 1785.646 billion yuan,1768.64 billion yuan and 1751.634 billion yuan.At the same time,through impulse response and variance decomposition analysis,we find that: first,there is a long-term dynamic relationship between macro tax burden,government public expenditure and economic growth.Second,economic growth is mainly affected by its own lag,and there is a certain lag in the level of macro tax burden and the impact effect of government public expenditure.Third,under the impact of macro tax burden,it presents a dynamic relationship of short-term negative,medium-term positive and long-term unresponsive.After the impact of government public expenditure,it presents a dynamic relationship of short-term non response and medium and long-term positive response.Fourth,the medium and long-term positive effect of government public expenditure can offset the short-term negative effect of macro tax burden level,so as to promote the healthy development of economic growth.This paper holds that China should adjust its macro tax burden level and optimize its tax structure from the following aspects: first,optimize the tax structure,including adjusting the structure of direct tax and indirect tax,optimizing the proportion of various tax structures,appropriately reducing tax burden and regulating non tax income.Second,to promote the construction of tax collection management mechanism,mainly to improve the tax planning management,promote the budget management of tax preference,and establish a tax collection and management system suitable for natural persons to pay taxes.Third,we should improve the local tax competition coordination mechanism,including the implementation of regional differential tax burden policy,optimizing the horizontal tax distribution mechanism,and promoting the rational flow of regional labor capital elements.Fourth,to promote the structural tax reduction and fee reduction policy,we should increase preferential tax policies,improve the income tax system,strengthen the income redistribution function of income tax,and accelerate the implementation of resource tax reform.Finally,the government should reduce the "pain of tax burden" of micro subjects through the construction of modern fiscal and taxation system,and promote the transformation of China's tax system from urban-rural dual structure to "unitary" tax system.This is helpful to propose a tax system interpretation framework and reform path to achieve the optimal macro tax burden level,which has important theoretical significance and practical value for China's tax reform optimization,economic growth,consumption and investment,fair distribution and regional balanced development.