Research On The Effect Evaluation Of Targeted Reduction Of Reserve Requirements Policy And The Impact Of Central And Local Policies And Measures

The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out: "China's economy has changed from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality development,and is in the crucial period of transforming the development mode,optimizing the economic structure and transforming the growth momentum." the "flood flooding" monetary policy is obviously out of date,and may even be brought into the field of policy restrictions by arbitrage funds,so the economy requires the monetary policy to have a certain structural attribute,otherwise the overall monetary policy will only aggravate the economic distortion.Through structural monetary policy guiding financial institutions to increase support for specific regions,specific industries and specific groups has become the main theme of the central bank's monetary policy operation.In recent years,financial support for private small and micro enterprises has been raised to an unprecedented height.Because it can increase the bank's capital position,reduce capital cost and prevent the release of excessive liquidit,Targeted Reduction of the Reserve Requirements(TRRR)cuts has become the most frequently used structural monetary policy tool since it was launched in April 2014.It has been used for 20 rounds.However,there are still disputes about whether the targeted reduction of the reserve requirements has actually supported the small and micro enterprises and the three rural enterprises as expected by the policy.With the accumulation of empirical data,it is possible to scientifically and quantitatively evaluate the policy effect of TRRR.Therefore,selecting real and accurate empirical data to scientifically evaluate the effect of TRRR and its possible negative impact has become an important topic faced by the academic circles and monetary authorities,which is also the first problem studied in this paper.For a period of time,it is relatively easy for funds to enter financial institutions,but there are many difficulties in entering the real economy field from financial institutions,especially for small and micro businesses,agriculture,rural areas and other economic weak areas.In the final analysis,it is the question of the transmission channel of monetary policy is not smooth.This is due to the problems of financial supervision,which leads to the self circulation of “water” released by the central bank in the financial system,and the imperfect credit information of small and micro enterprises leads to the banks' fear of loans.It is undoubtedly a good start to further support the development of private small and micro economy that the sustained exertion of targeted adjustment of monetary policy.In order to promote the continuous "smooth flow" of monetary policy transmission mechanism,it needs the joint protection of banking supervision department and local government.Therefore,this paper attempts to answer the second question,that is,why does the central bank's TRRR needs the active coordination of financial supervision? What are the consequences? Furthermore,the market economy is a credit economy.Under the Political Promotion Tournament mode,local governments actively participate in the construction of social credit system in order to enliven the economy and support the development of local small and micro enterprises.Under this background,the third question is whether the construction of social credit system of local governments has an obvious "lubricating" effect on the transmission of directional regulation and control of monetary policy?At present,the governments at all levels try to alleviate the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises and promote employment.The study of the above problems can provide beneficial theoretical and empirical support for opening up the "last kilometer" of the real economy and strengthening the support for weak links in the economy.This paper combines theoretical analysis with empirical analysis.In the empirical analysis,it uses the actual survey data of 81 rural commercial banks in Zhejiang Province(Including Rural Credit Cooperatives and Rural Cooperative Bank of China),and successively uses the methods of Difference in Difference(DID),PVAR,Synthetic Control Method and panel econometric regression to answer the above three questions,from the perspective of how to promote the inflow of central bank's TRRR funds into small and micro enterprises,and better serve the real economy.The following six conclusions are drawn: Firstly,the TRRR policy tools can make up for the "market failure",which significantly increases the proportion of loans granted to small and micro enterprises of rural commercial banks who enjoy the incentive of TRRR policy;Secondly,from the perspective of banks,different banks have different enthusiasm for granting loans to small and micro enterprises,and the banks with stronger profitability(higher return on assets)are less active;Thirdly,from the perspective of ownership of loan enterprises,the funds released by the TRRR policy is finally flood into non-state-owned small and micro enterprises,which outcome is in line with the original intention of the policy;Fourthly,from the perspective of bank risk-taking,the risk-taking of rural commercial banks which stimulated by the TRRR policy increased significantly,and the non-performing loan rate of its small and micro enterprises loans increased significantly;Fifthly,during the research period(2014-2015),the banking supervision was divorced from the main responsibility of supervision and focused on promoting the development of the bank industry,and there was no effective coordination and coordination between the bank supervision and the loose monetary policy(general and targeted reduction of the reserve requirements),which led to the "accumulation" of funds released by the central bank's RRR policy and "idling" within the financial system,forming financial leverage and hindering regional economy growth;Sixthly,the credit environment construction measures carried out by the local government in the form of building a credit information sharing platform can jointly promote the central bank's TRRR funds to "Irrigate" the small and micro enterprises.Compared to previous thesises,the innovation of this paper lies in the following aspects: Firstly,the research perspective has shifted from the enterprise side to the bank side of the TRRR tool targted,and the data used is also the actual survey data,so the data quality is relatively high.The analysis of the effect of the TRRR policy in alleviating the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises is more direct,and the research conclusion has strong theoretical significance;Secondly,the research period is relatively special,which just captures the period when the banking regulatory policy pays more attention to the industry development than to the specific behavior supervision,Under this kind of regulatory policy collocation,this paper analyzes the possible consequences of the RRR easing monetary policy and the support of the RRR funds to the real economy,which enriches the research results of the coordination of financial supervision and monetary policy;Thirdly,the research on the policy collocation between central and local governments selects the perspective that local governments carry out the construction of credit environment,which is less concerned in previous studies,to analyze whether the synergistic effect of the central bank's policy on targeted reduction of reserve requirements is obvious,which provides empirical evidence for local governments to carry out business environment construction.