Research On The Development Of RMB International Bond Market From The Perspective Of Currency Internationalization

The development path of RMB internationalization-"Trade settlement + offshore center",is facing certain bottlenecks at this stage.Economic strength and trade scale are not enough to fully support the RMB internationalization.International experience shows that the internationalization of currency in the financial field plays an increasingly critical role in the currency internationalization,especially for international bonds.The RMB internationalization also needs the support of a well developed financial market.The reform and opening up of the financial market which will promote the steady development of RMB internationalization is a subject worthy of further study.Based on this,the RMB international bond as a breakthrough in the financial field to help the RMB internationalization can be a feasible idea.For the past few years,the optimization of the development environment,such as the innovation of the financial system,the enhancement of the attraction of RMB assets,and the expansion of "The Belt and Road" circle of friends,has opened up new development space for the RMB international bond market.Although more and more attention has been paid to the development of the RMB international bond,there are still few special studies on it,mainly because the RMB international bond market is still in the early stage of development.The "Panda bonds" and offshore RMB bonds have been widely recognized for their role in promoting the internationalization of RMB,but there is a lack of systematic theoretical analysis and quantitative empirical research.This paper brings international bond and currency internationalization into a research framework,and discusses it according to the idea of putting forward question-> analysis question-> solve question.Three core questions are intended to answer in this paper: The first one tries to answer the influence mechanism between international bond and currency internationalization.The second one aims to point out the significance of developing RMB international bond market at present stage,and find out the factors that influence the development of RMB international bond market.The third one tries to work out the measures that can better boost the development of RMB international bond market with the perspective of the RMB internationalization.First,present the question.This part makes theoretical research and literature review from three aspects: international bond,currency internationalization,and the relationship between international bond and currency internationalization.Part of important content is discussing two mechanisms of international bond affecting currency internationalization.On the one hand,it clarifies the subject of this paper,and on the other hand,it provides the necessary theoretical basis for the empirical research in the following chapters.Second,analysis the question.This part includes analytical research and empirical research.In terms of analytical research,firstly,through the comparative study of international cases,the paper analyzes and summarizes the development experience of the major international bond markets.Secondly,it analyzes the development status of "Panda bond",offshore RMB bond and SDR bond,and further points out the obstacles that RMB international bond market faces.In terms of empirical research,firstly,a dynamic panel data model was built to test the impact of international bonds on currency internationalization.The results show that the development of international bonds play a positive role to currency internationalization.The next step is to study how to develop.This paper further constructs an SVAR model to analyze the influencing factors of RMB international bonds,in order to provide more efficient suggestions for the development of RMB international bonds.The results of structural impulse response and variance decomposition show that exchange rate volatility,financial market development and economic strength are the top three factors.The contribution rate of capital account opening is relatively low,mainly because China is still a country with high capital control.The contribution rate of trade was less than expected,and inflation contributed less to the development of RMB international bond market.Finally,solve the question.Based on the research conclusions and the realistic conditions for the development of RMB international bonds,this paper puts forward suggestions from the perspective of currency internationalization.Innovation of this paper lies in: Firstly,this paper puts forward the theoretical and logical relationship between international bond and currency internationalization from the perspective of monetary circulation mechanism and international monetary function.Empirically,the promoting effect of international bonds on currency internationalization has been generally recognized,but there is a lack of theoretical argumentation and research.Secondly,quantitative research on RMB international bonds by using quantitative methods makes the research conclusion more convincing,while previous studies mainly focus on qualitative research.Thirdly,both the international paradigm provided by the development experience of international bonds of major currencies and the qualitative and empirical analysis based on China’s reality make the research conclusions and policy recommendations more referential.