| In 2016,China jumped from the tenth largest source of FDI to the third largest source of FDI in Indonesia,marking China has become the main source of FDI in Indonesia.However,with the growth of China's investment,various kinds of adverse factors are accumulating rapidly.They interact and resonate with each other,and develop into systematic risks that have wide impact on China's investment.The rapid rise of systematic risks in China's investment has brought a large number of risk signs.Indonesia's nationalism,extreme religion,anti-Chinese and anti-China sentiments,corruption and rent-seeking,high-cost economy and other risk factors continue to increase the pressure on China's investment,demonstrations and negative public opinion hype against China's investment continue to take place,some even develop into violent conflicts.In this context,research on risk theory and risk control of China's investment has become urgent practical needs,and also an important theoretical problem to be solved urgently.The object of this paper is the systematic risks of China's investment in Indonesia,the research questions are: From theoretical and practical perspectives,what are the reasons for the systematic risks of China's investment? Specifically speaking,what are the principles,processes and mechanisms generate the systematic risks? What are the influencing factors?Current academic community has carried out a lot of research on China's investment risks,but in general,they attributed different risks to specific problems of Indonesian society,and failed to define the causes of the risks from a systematic perspective.In order to make up for the deficiency of academic research,this paper mainly adopts the methods of systematic analysis,case study and field investigation.Systematic analysis focuses on Indonesia's institutional system and its structural interaction,and analyzes the systematic causes of China's investment risks from the perspective of structural interaction.In case study,the author collected a large number of practical cases during his work in Indonesia from 2015 to2019.Accordingly,this paper alternatively uses case study methods of single case process tracking research,qualitative analysis of collective samples and comparative analysis of small and medium samples.In field survey,this paper mainly adopts the methods of observation,ethnography,interview and questionnaire survey.The arrangement of this paper is: Chapter 1 summarizes the risk types and risk distribution characteristics,reviews the current academic research,raises the research questions.Chapter 2-6 focus on the institutional systems in Indonesia's five social fields,summarizes China's investment risks caused by different institutional systems,and analyzes impact of structural interaction on systematic risks of China's investment.Chapter 7 makes an empirical study on the risks of “illegal labor” and “difficulty on land acquisition” of China's investment,as well as the investment risks of “Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway Project”.Chapter 8 is the conclusion of this paper.Based on the summary of this study,this chapter deliberates on the risk management and risk control of China's OFDI,and puts forward policy suggestions from the perspectives of investment and financing mode reform,optimizing the agent system,deepening the localized operation,breaking through the social closed loop etc.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: When investment cooperation occurs,China's investment will embed into Indonesia's institutional system.China's investment needs to adapt or be forced to adapt to Indonesia's institutional environment,which will inevitably lead to conflicts and contradictions,and will generate various risk factors.The systematic risks of China's investment results from the interaction between different structures in Indonesia's institutional system.Specifically speaking,after the emergence of risk factors,the structural interaction between different institutional systems in Indonesia,as well as the structural interaction within each institutional system,will act on the risk factors,resulting in the upgrading of risk factors,as well as the mutual influence,superposition and diffusion of risk factors in different fields,forming systematic risks.In the process of generating systematic risks,the main role of structural interaction is to make the risks produce spillover effect.The spillover effect of risk depends on its spillover ability and structural conditions.When the risk has spillover ability and the structural conditions are met,the spillover effect of risk will occur.The main contributions of this paper are: From the theoretical perspective,this paper explains the causes of the systematic risks of China's investment by analyzing the structural interaction within Indonesia's institutional systems,improves the academic and theoretical value of risk research on China's OFDI.In this process,the paper uses a large number of first-hand data and practical cases to demonstrate the principles,processes and mechanisms of systematic risks of China's investment.From the practical perspective,the paper puts forward policy suggestions aiming at promoting the institutional reform of China's OFDI,and provides theoretical basis for the implementation of “one country,one policy” principle of risk prevention and control.There are also some deficiencies in this study: First,the author has consulted a large number of Indonesian translation materials,but due to language constraints,the Indonesian materials is still insufficient;Second,the author has been engaged in practical work for a long time,the theoretical analysis also has some shortcomings. |
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