Research On The Impact Of Financial Revenue And Expenditure On The Credit Scale Of Commercial Banks ——A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Based On The Perspective Of The Macro Accounts

The Chinese government pays great attention to the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies.Since the reform and opening up,China has gradually changed into a macro-regulation system with fiscal and monetary policy as the mainstay and supplemented by other policies.Although Chinese government have emphasized the importance on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies for several times,there still exists difficulties in strengthening the coordination in market economic operations.Fiscal policy and monetary policy are in terms of policy tools,mechanisms,and policies.There are differences in policy hysteresis,meanwhile the policies may influence each other through both direct or indirect channels,which makes it harder to achieve the desired policy goals effectively.Whether fiscal policy and monetary policy can cooperate with each other has an impact.Therefore,the research on the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy,and discussion of the impact of fiscal policies implemented by government departments on monetary policy objectives in the context of macroeconomic regulation are extremely significant for academic research and policy formulation.Although the coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy has always been an arguable topic in theories and practices.However,in the relevant theories of mainstream finance,there is no in-depth analysis of the possible impact of the revenue and expenditure activities of government departments on the credit scale of commercial banks,resulting in the defects of the basic theory of Finance and the lack of realistic explanatory power and predictive power in the interaction between fiscal policy and monetary policy.Therefore,this paper will follow the research paradigm and theoretical framework of new market finance,based on the "dual subject" monetary regulation mechanism of finance central bank under the framework of new market finance,and use the methods of policy text analysis,macro account analysis and empirical research to explore the heterogeneous impact of fiscal revenue and expenditure on commercial bank credit.Firstly,this paper will comb the policy of China's treasury fund operation and commercial bank management in detail,and link the relationship between China's fiscal revenue and expenditure and commercial bank credit from policy aspect.Moreover,based on the macro account analysis,this paper will comb the circulation mode of fiscal revenue and expenditure between individuals,enterprises,commercial banks and other different economic entities,and focus on the fiscal revenue and expenditure behavior.Finally,by using the economic data of Chinese government departments,commercial banks and so on,this paper makes an empirical test on the research conclusion of the full text,so as to ensure the effectiveness of the conclusion of the full text.Specifically,this paper is divided into five parts:The first part includes the first and second chapters of the thesis.The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly explains the research background of this dissertation,and then puts forward the relevant research questions and research positioning of this article.The second chapter is a literature review.This chapter reviews the impact of fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure,and treasury cash management on commercial bank credit at home and abroad,as well as reviews related literature in the fields of fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination,and policy evaluation methods.On the basis of clarifying the deficiencies of the existing research,the angle and direction of possible improvement in the next step are explained.The second part includes the third and fourth chapters of the dissertation.Chapter3 is based on the policy texts of the Ministry of Finance,the People's Bank of China and other government agencies,focusing on the construction process and development status of the state treasury centralized receipt and payment system and the state treasury cash management system that are most relevant to my country's fiscal revenue and expenditure,and proposes the state treasury The centralized collection and payment system is the institutional basis for financial activities to affect the credit of commercial banks,and the view that my country's fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure and treasury cash management are the channels through which fiscal affects the credit of commercial banks.The fourth chapter is the concept definition and theoretical basis.In this chapter,this article sorts out and defines the three key concepts of fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure and commercial bank credit,and further analyzes mainstream finance,new market finance and modern finance.The monetary theory and other related academic theories are summarized and analyzed.By comparing the monetary theory of different theoretical schools and how different theoretical schools view the relationship between market entities,the new market finance is finally determined as the theoretical basis of this doctoral thesis.The third part presents the fifth chapter of the thesis.This chapter mainly elaborates the theoretical research on the impact of fiscal revenue and expenditure on commercial bank credit.This article uses policy text analysis and macro account analysis to sort out the impact mechanism and path of fiscal revenue and expenditure on commercial bank credit scale,and discuss When fiscal revenues and fiscal expenditures change,what impact will it have on the macro accounts of various economic entities,and then analyze the effects and extent of the impacts of commercial bank credit scale caused by changes in fiscal revenues and expenditures.In addition,my country's fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditures are always incompatible in terms of use time,use space,and use efficiency.Part of the government deposits will inevitably remain in the single treasury account system.Therefore,this article further studies the categories of impacts on the macro accounts of various economic entities and the scale of commercial bank credit,etc.it have on the macro accounts of various economic entities when our government conducts treasury cash,in order to improve the relevant research of the full text.The fourth part includes the sixth chapter of the thesis.This part is the empirical analysis part of this doctoral dissertation.Based on the data of China's financial sector,central bank and commercial banks,this article uses the intermediary effect model to determine the impact of my country's fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure,and treasury cash management activities on the credit scale of commercial banks.Empirical research has been conducted on the effect and mechanism of the influencing factors,verifying the research theorem proposed in the previous article.On this basis,this article further divides the credit data of China's commercial banks,and examines the heterogeneity of fiscal revenue and expenditure behavior for different types(state-owned and other commercial banks)and different maturities(long-term and short-term loans)of commercial bank credit scale.The fifth part is the seventh chapter of the paper.This part summarizes the research results of the full text,and summarizes five main conclusions in total.On the basis of the full text research,it systematically puts forward relevant policy recommendations,hoping to be able to help my country's Ministry of Finance,The People's Bank of China and other relevant departments have made suggestions for policy formulation,and contributed to the coordination of my country's fiscal and monetary policies.Based on the above research ideas,this article has mainly obtained the following five research conclusions:First,since 2001,China began to establish a centralized treasury collection and payment system with a single treasury account system as the core.Under the current fiscal system,the centralized collection and payment system of the treasury is a result of the financial activities of Chinese financial departments affecting the credit scale of commercial banks.Based on the system,fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure and treasury cash management activities are the channels through which the fiscal activities of the fiscal sector affect the credit scale of commercial banks.Second,China's fiscal revenues and expenditures affect the general deposit scale of commercial banks,thereby affecting the overall credit scale of commercial banks,and the effects of the two are opposite.When the government raises funds through fiscal revenue,the scale of fiscal deposit funds in the treasury system increases,the scale of funds in the currency circulation system decreases,and the scale of loanable funds for commercial banks decreases,which ultimately leads to a decrease in the overall credit scale.When the government makes fiscal expenditures,the scale of fiscal deposit funds in the treasury system decreases,the scale of funds in the currency circulation system increases,and the scale of loanable funds of commercial banks increases,which in turn increases the overall credit scale.Third,China's treasury cash management activities affect the scale of treasury cash management time deposits in the commercial banking system,which in turn affects the overall credit scale of commercial banks.In actual fiscal practice,treasury cash management activities do not change the amount of government assets,but only change the structure of assets held.By transferring government deposits in the treasury to fixed deposits in commercial banks,the commercial banking system is increased.The internal treasury cash management time deposit scale,which in turn affected the overall commercial bank credit scale.Fourth,China's fiscal revenue and expenditure and treasury cash management activities will have a heterogeneous impact on the credit scale of different types of commercial banks.Related research on state-owned and other types of commercial banks found that treasury cash management activities can significantly increase the credit scale of other types of commercial banks,but they have not had a significant impact on the credit scale of state-owned commercial banks.Relevant studies on longterm and short-term loans have found that fiscal revenue has not significantly affected the short-term credit scale of commercial banks,while fiscal expenditure has not significantly affected the long-term credit scale of commercial banks.Fifth,based on the centralized treasury collection and payment system,China's financial sector increases or decreases treasury funds through channels such as fiscal revenue,fiscal expenditure,and treasury cash management,thereby affecting the entire process of the scale of funds in the currency circulation system and the scale of commercial bank credit.The political power conferred by relevant laws and regulations,from a legal perspective,my country's financial sector is relatively independent in its ability to regulate and control the scale of commercial bank credit,and is not subject to the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China.Therefore,China's financial sector can relatively independently regulate the scale of commercial bank credit and currency circulation based on the centralized treasury collection and payment system.The relevant research conclusions of this article further corroborate and improve the theoretical research of the fiscal-central bank "dual subject" monetary control framework system composed of the fiscal department and the central bank department.By discussing the impacts on China's fiscal revenue and expenditure on the credit scale of commercial banks,this dissertation puts forward the following five policy recommendations.Firstly,the coordination mechanism between the Treasury Department,the People's Bank of China and other relevant institutions should be strengthened and the endogenous link between fiscal policy and monetary policy should be enhanced,so that the fiscal policy and monetary policy can better play a synergy.Secondly,the policy tools of treasury cash management should be enriched.The government could try to complete treasury cash management operations directly in the capital market through treasury bond reverse repo and other operations,so as to alleviate the impact of the government's fiscal behavior on monetary policy objectives.Thirdly,the Chinese government needs to pay attention to the heterogeneous effects on different types of economic entities in order to maximize the effect of the policies.Fourthly,both policy formulation and academic research should be paid great attention to the objective existence of the "dual subject" framework of money regulation from Treasury Department to the People's Bank of China.Consequently,scholars should build a basic theory of finance with Chinese characteristics,in line with Chinese conditions and capable of solving China's real problems.Fifthly,against the background of the unprecedented changes in a century,the Chinese government must actively promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity,actively construct the method of national resource allocation under the new era.In the meantime,the government should rethink and improve the coordination mechanism between the Treasury Department and the People's Bank of China.