Research On The Impact Of Fiscal Expenditure On The Development Of Urbanization

Urbanization is the carrier of industrialization and information,and the basic characteristics and the only way of modern economic and social development.Japan's urbanization development has been basically completed at the end of last century,and has a lot of experience,which can provide useful reference for China's urbanization development.The development of modern urbanization in China began with reform and opening up.The urbanization rate has risen rapidly from 17.9% in 1978 to 60.6% in 2019 with remarkable achievements.However,compared with nearly 80% of the urbanization level of mature industrialized countries,China still has more room for development.At the same time,under the background of the slowdown of economic growth and the centralized release of urbanization problems accumulated in the early stage,China is facing new challenges in the current and future urbanization development.Whether from the previous theoretical research or from the development practice of urbanization in developed countries in the world,fiscal expenditure plays an important role in the healthy development of urbanization.After China's reform and opening up,the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization is inseparable from the role of fiscal expenditure,but some problems in the development of urbanization are partly caused by the fiscal expenditure,and most of the urbanization problems must be solved by means of fiscal expenditure.Facing the defects of market mechanism and the block of some institutional problems in China,it is urgent to solve the problems of urbanization in China by optimizing the fiscal expenditure and innovating the fiscal expenditure mechanism,so as to promote the healthy and sustainable development of urbanization.The core of this dissertation is to study the impact of fiscal expenditure on the development of urbanization.Firstly,the dissertation decomposes the core concepts into four dimensions: the scale of fiscal expenditure,the structure of fiscal expenditure,the decentralization of fiscal expenditure,the distribution of fiscal expenditure between urban and rural areas;the urbanization is divided into four dimensions: urbanization efficiency,urbanization quality,urban spatial form and urban-rural relationship;then,the important relationships between the corresponding dimensions of the two core concepts are determined as the key research objects.This dissertation takes the multi-dimensional analysis of the characteristics of urbanization development and the role of fiscal expenditure in urbanization development in Japan as the starting point,and determines the research direction and research framework on the basis of Japanese experience.In the arrangement of Chinese practice part,this dissertation adopts the research context of development practice overview,theoretical and mathematical analysis and empirical analysis.The main research contents and conclusions of this dissertation include the following five aspects.First,the urbanization of Japan is developing rapidly,population urbanization is high(mainly after the World War II),the urban spatial layout has experienced a sequential growth process from imbalance to equilibrium,and the urban-rural relationship is in good condition(mainly after the World War II).The pre war and post war practice showed that there is a positive correlation between the development of urbanization and the scale of fiscal expenditure in Japan.But the deficiency and excess of the scale of fiscal expenditure at a certain stage will have a negative impact on the development of urbanization.The productive fiscal expenditure level of Japan before the war was very high,the proportion of productive fiscal expenditure decreased slowly in the period of high-speed growth of urbanization after the war,and the consumption or livelihood fiscal expenditure increased significantly in the later period of urbanization.The centralization of fiscal before the war led to polarization of urban spatial development.After World War II,the fiscal decentralization of Japanese cities and towns is relatively balanced,and the spatial form of urbanization also presents the sequential characteristics of "gathering" first and then "scattering",and the overall development of large,medium and small cities is relatively balanced.Japan's fiscal expenditure plays an important role in agricultural development,rural industrialization,agricultural concurrent operation and rural basic public service improvement.Second,in the non overcrowded state of public goods,the supply of public goods helps to improve the level of economic agglomeration,and the improvement of economic agglomeration level will also improve the efficiency of public goods supply.In reality,it shows the mutual promotion relationship between the scale of fiscal expenditure and the development of urbanization in the aspects of housing security,education,medical care,infrastructure,income distribution and welfare equity demand.The spatial economic mathematical model analysis of the scale of fiscal expenditure,economic agglomeration and urban-rural labor transfer shows that there is a reverse "U" relationship between the scale of fiscal expenditure and economic agglomeration or urbanization.Based on the provincial panel data from 1982 to 2018,this dissertation makes an econometric analysis of the impact of China's fiscal expenditure scale on urbanization efficiency by static panel model and spatial dynamic panel model respectively,and the empirical results are consistent with the theoretical analysis results.Third,the timely adjustment of the structure of fiscal expenditure can promote the improvement of urbanization quality and efficiency from four aspects: improving the level of economic growth,better meeting the preference structure of public goods,improving the income distribution gap and the unfair welfare,and improving the comprehensive bearing capacity of urban space.The mathematical model analysis of fiscal expenditure structure and urban-rural labor transfer shows that the adjustment of fiscal expenditure structure driven by the change of public capital efficiency and preference structure of public and private products has an important impact on the decision-making of urban-rural labor transfer and the balance of labor flow.Based on the measurement analysis of time series cointegration model of China national data from 1982 to 2019,it is found that there is a reverse "U" relationship between the proportion of service expenditure and urbanization quality in the fiscal expenditure structure.Further,the provincial panel data model analysis shows the specific impact of various service fiscal expenditures on the urbanization quality in the fiscal expenditure structure.Fourth,fiscal decentralization can improve the urbanization efficiency through fiscal incentive,fiscal competition and the improvement of the efficiency of regional public goods supply.However,it will also lead to two-level differentiation in urban development due to the "Matthew effect" caused by the gap in the distribution of financial resources.The mathematical model analysis of fiscal decentralization,urban spatial form and urbanization efficiency shows that the degree of fiscal decentralization will have an inverted "U" effect on the level of urbanization under the condition of crowding of public goods.Under the assumption of land crowding,it is concluded that the urban agglomeration form is the optimal form of urban spatial layout.According to the results of accounting for the fiscal selfsufficiency rate and fiscal expenditure decentralization index of cities at the levels of municipalities directly under the central government,sub provincial cities,prefecture level cities and county-level regions in China,the results show that the higher the level,the higher the self-sufficiency rate and the decentralization index of fiscal expenditure,and the larger the average inflow of population.The regression results of dynamic panel model and quantile model based on China's provincial panel data from 2007 to 2019 show that fiscal expenditure decentralization helps to improve the urbanization level of permanent residents,and the higher the level of urbanization,the greater the marginal impact.Fifth,the fiscal expenditure can expand the market scale of urban-rural areas,support the development of rural industry and promote the improvement of public service level in rural areas.However,the gap between urban and rural development is often caused by the imbalance of urban and rural fiscal allocation structure in practice.The mathematical model analysis of fiscal expenditure,agricultural output and urban-rural income shows that when there is public investment in cities and towns but not in villages,agricultural output will decrease and urban-rural income gap will widen;when there is public capital and it is transferred to rural agriculture in an appropriate proportion,it will not only improve the level of agricultural output,but also help to narrow the urban-rural income gap.Based on the LMDI analysis of China's national data from 1997 to 2019,it is found that fiscal agricultural expenditure has a positive impact on the increase of agricultural output.Based on the fixed effect model analysis of China's provincial panel data from 2007 to 2019,it is found that fiscal social security and employment expenditure have different impacts on the equalization of urban and rural public services in different periods.Based on the panel correction standard error fixed effect model from 2007 to 2019,the empirical results show that the increase of the relative scale of fiscal expenditure,the increase of service fiscal expenditure and productive fiscal expenditure can effectively narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.Although there is a negative correlation between the proportion of fiscal expenditure on agriculture,forestry and water affairs and the proportion of urban and rural income,it is not significant.The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows:(1)In this dissertation,fiscal expenditure scale,fiscal expenditure structure,fiscal expenditure decentralization and fiscal expenditure urban-rural distribution(fiscal expenditure dimension)are associated with urbanization efficiency,urbanization quality,urban spatial layout,urban-rural relationship(urbanization dimension),and a multi-dimensional analysis framework of fiscal expenditure's impact on urbanization development is constructed based on Japanese experience and the current problems faced by China's urbanization development.(2)The dissertation introduces the fiscal expenditure into the traditional Dixit-Stiglitz monopoly competition spatial economic model;according to the needs of theoretical analysis,the dissertation establishes the model of fiscal expenditure structure and urban-rural labor transfer,the model of fiscal decentralization,urban spatial form and urbanization efficiency,the model of fiscal expenditure,agricultural output and urban-rural income change model,and obtains valuable analysis results.(3)In the empirical research method,the dissertation choose the applicable and more cutting-edge dynamic spatial panel econometric model,time series cointegration analysis model,dynamic panel model and other econometric methods to carry out multi angle,multi method,multi data type empirical analysis of the problem,in order to ensure the comprehensiveness and accuracy of empirical research.