Research On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Enterprise Total Factor Productivity

The thesis is about the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the total factor productivity of enterprises.In the new stage of development,the increase in total factor productivity is an important thrust for high-quality economic development,and it is also a key factor in promoting economic growth.In order to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,adjust the economic structure,curb the deep recession of the real economy,and maintain stable economic growth,the state has proposed a policy of supply-side structural reform,and the government has issued a series of macroeconomic regulation and control policies.The promulgation of these policies is conducive to adjusting the economic structure and promoting market development.At the same time,it may also increase the uncertainty of economic policies.As the key external environment of an enterprise,various government policies are closely related to various business management activities of the enterprise.In other words,the government influences the total factor productivity level of enterprises through economic policies.The total factor productivity of micro-enterprises is the basis of macroeconomic input efficiency,which in turn provides the basis for government policies.Considering that the manufacturing industry is the main body of my country's real economy,studying the factors that affect the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry is of great practical significance for promoting high-quality development and increasing economic growth.Therefore,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the total factor productivity of enterprises and the conditions of their transmission channels have become important issues that need to be clarified in modern economic reforms,and are of great significance to the study of the external environment of enterprises.The main research content of the thesis is as follows:(1)Based on the systematic analysis of the relevant theories and empirical research on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the total factor productivity of enterprises,clarified the connotation of related concepts such as policy uncertainty and enterprise total factor productivity,and tried to build Develop the theoretical framework of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the total factor productivity of enterprises,analyze the mechanism of the internal relationship between the two,and explore the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty affecting the total factor productivity of enterprises.(2)Reconstructed China's economic policy uncertainty index using the data reported by China's provincial party newspapers,and conducted a comparative analysis of the economic policy uncertainty index to summarize its development trends.At the same time,using the data of listed companies in China's manufacturing industry from 2007 to2019,comprehensively measure the financialization of corporate assets and the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry.(3)With the help of various measurement methods such as systematic generalized moment estimation,OLS,GLS,etc.,empirically test the impact of economic policy uncertainty on manufacturing total factor productivity and its mechanism.From the perspective of innovation activity and asset financialization,it reveals an important transmission path through which economic policy uncertainty hinders the improvement of manufacturing total factor productivity.Furthermore,the paper explores the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the total factor productivity of enterprises under the institutional environment,and uses government subsidies and enterprise rent-seeking as representatives to test its regulatory effect.(4)Based on the research conclusions of the thesis,combined with the current realistic background,put forward policy recommendations to ease the uncertainty of economic policies and inhibit the overall productivity of enterprises,and discuss the possible shortcomings and expansion directions of the thesis.Compared with existing research,the possible innovations of the thesis are:(1)Different from the research on the specific impact of economic policy uncertainty on micro-enterprises' operating behavior in the existing literature,the thesis attempts to establish a way for economic policy uncertainty to affect the increase in enterprise total factor productivity.The theoretical framework considers the comprehensive impact of economic policy uncertainty on business operations,and reveals the inherent connection between economic policy uncertainty and corporate total factor productivity.(2)The thesis establishes a transmission mechanism through which the uncertainty of economic policy affects the total factor productivity of enterprises,reveals the inherent relationship between the uncertainty of economic policies,the business behavior of enterprises and the total factor productivity of enterprises,and the influence of the institutional environment on the uncertainty of economic policies.The role of factor productivity.Clarify the micro-action mechanism behind the uncertainty of economic policy that inhibits the total factor productivity of enterprises,provide empirical evidence and theoretical support for relevant policy formulation,and provide path options for achieving high-quality economic development.(3)The existing literature mostly uses Baker et al.The data of Hong Kong's South China Morning Post or the information of changes in local officials is used to construct the economic policy uncertainty index,and the paper uses the data of the domestic provincial party newspaper to reconstruct the economic policy uncertainty index.,In theory,it is more in line with China's actual situation,and can more comprehensively and objectively reflect the uncertainty of China's economic policy.The main research conclusions of the thesis are as follows:(1)In recent years,affected by changes in the political environment,the global economic recession,and the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the uncertainty index of economic policies in various economies around the world has generally risen.China's economic policy uncertainty index has shown a volatile upward trend,and the peaks and troughs of China's economic policy uncertainty index are basically higher than the global economic policy uncertainty index and higher than those of major developed economies.Emerging market countries,due to their domestic political turbulence or economic transformation and reform,their economic policy uncertainty index level is generally higher than that of major developed countries.(2)The uncertainty of economic policy makes the external environment of the enterprise turbulent,which has a significant impact on the business behavior of the enterprise.The overall impact of economic policy uncertainty on the improvement of total factor productivity is significantly negative.The frequent release of economic policies is not conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity.Its main channels are technological progress and corporate financial asset allocation.The impact of economic policy uncertainty on technological progress and corporate financial asset allocation is significantly negative,and the impact of technological progress and corporate financial asset allocation on the improvement of corporate total factor productivity is significantly positive,that is,economic policy uncertainty inhibits technological progress And the allocation of corporate financial assets has a negative impact on the increase in total factor productivity.In addition,this article also finds that loose monetary policy will inhibit the increase in manufacturing total factor productivity.This may be because the loose monetary policy has reduced corporate financing constraints,and companies have relatively ample funds,but companies are biased towards industries such as real estate with higher profits,causing companies to over-allocate financial assets and appear "avoidance from reality to virtuality".(3)This paper takes government subsidies and enterprise rent-seeking as the representatives of the institutional environment.The research finds that the institutional environment has a certain moderating effect on the effect of the uncertainty of economic policies on the total factor productivity of enterprises.Enterprise rent-seeking has a significant moderating effect in the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise total factor productivity.Enterprise rent-seeking weakens the inhibitory effect of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise total factor productivity;government subsidies play a role in economic policy uncertainty There is a significant moderating effect in the impact on the total factor productivity of enterprises.Because the impact of government subsidies on the total factor productivity of enterprises has an inverted U-shaped structure,when the uncertainty of economic policy increases,moderate government subsidies can slow down the economic policy.Uncertainty has an unfavorable impact on the overall productivity of enterprises,but beyond a certain level,government subsidies can also increase the unfavorable impact of economic policy uncertainty on the overall productivity of enterprises.Based on the research conclusions of the paper,the following policy recommendations are put forward: First,maintain the continuity and stability of economic policies,improve the transparency of economic policies,and ensure the relative stability of the external environment for business operations;further improve the pertinence and flexibility of economic policy implementation,Taking into account the specific aspects of the micro-management of enterprises,effectively adjust the adverse effects brought about by the uncertainty of economic policies.The complexity and uncertainty of the situation facing macroeconomic regulation and control determines that policies must "take one step at a time".It is of great practical significance to focus on improving the pertinence and flexibility of policies;second,to encourage enterprises to invest in innovation and increase their commitment to product patent innovation.Provide support to prepare for the high-quality development of the economy;thirdly,give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation,gradually reduce unreasonable government subsidies for listed companies,and gradually withdraw from overcapacity companies,zombie companies,and competitive industries Government subsidies for enterprises;fourth,strengthen the information disclosure of listed companies,improve the transparency of listed companies,strengthen legislation to supervise the trading behavior of major shareholders,and avoid enterprises using information advantages for rent-seeking activities.