| Asset price bubbles and high leverage have recurred in history,but the mechanism of asset price bubbles and the mechanism of high leverage are more complex after the subprime crisis.Shadow banking and financial derivatives such as the development of modern financial technology not only increase China's financial leverage but also complicate the problem.The various distortions in the structure of the economic transition period make the new problems and new situations that arise in the evolution of asset price bubbles caused by the excessive expansion of financial leverage.The original traditional theories can not explain the asset price bubbles in the economy better.At present,China is at an important stage of economic transformation and structural upgrading.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly proposed that "China's economy has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage",and the economic growth rate has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a medium high-speed growth stage.However,the financial leverage is still rising,the mismatch between the growth of financial leverage and economic development is serious,and the capital market is too complex Rong caused capital to slip in the financial system,resulting in asset price bubbles and systemic financial risks expanding and accumulating.After the financial crisis,the above-mentioned problems have become the focus of economic research and caused widespread concern from all walks of life.In this context,first,by reading and summarizing the classic works and cutting-edge literature on financial leverage,asset price bubbles and economic growth at home and abroad,we clarify the development context,research status,existing problems,the focus of controversy and blind spots of research.Secondly,the accurate definition of asset price bubbles is the logical starting point of the study.Following the three mainstream viewpoints of the domestic and foreign economists,the definition of asset price bubble is defined and its general characteristics are analyzed.From the theoretical point of view and the influence factors,the formation mechanism of asset price bubbles is analyzed.Asset price bubble recognition methods such as ADF,SADF,GSADF and RADF are used.The existence,existence cycle,frequency and degree of asset price bubbles are identified and tested.The empirical results show that there are significant cyclical asset price bubbles in the sample research period,and asset price bubbles are extracted from the co integration model and the vector error correction model(VECM).Thirdly,taking the research on the nature of financial leverage economy as the starting point,financial leverage is defined and measured respectively from the micro and macro perspectives,revealing the causes and essence of the deviation between micro financial leverage and macro financial leverage;using debt to income ratio method and instant split method(TD)to measure China's financial leverage;focusing on revealing and studying the root,essence,power,and the impact of financial leverage The channel,characteristics and causes,etc.,not only set up a financial leverage driven asset price bubble model,but also clarify the inherent logical relationship between them,and combine the rolling wide window Granger causality test model with the Bootstrap statistical test to verify the degree,frequency and direction of the dynamic impact mechanism of financial leverage and asset price bubbles,as well as economic matters.The relationship between pieces.Fourth,high leverage and asset price bubbles are just appearances.The essence behind it is the imbalance between the virtual economy and the real economy.Therefore,we should add economic growth factors,from the representation analysis to the substantive research,and further reveal the influence of financial leverage,asset price bubbles and finance and economy.The main contents are as follows:(1)using DGMM and threshold effect,this paper tests the effectiveness of leverage mechanism of bank risk-taking channel conducted by monetary policy in 16 domestic listed banks from two stages.The empirical results show that: monetary policy can have a significant impact on bank risk-taking through leverage ratio;there is a relationship between monetary policy and bank risk-taking Double leverage rate threshold effect;(2)Fourier transform and spectral analysis method are used to study the cyclical linkage effect between asset price bubbles and economic growth.The empirical results show that the cyclical linkage relationship between asset price bubbles and economic growth is more complex,and there are more deviating phenomena between them in the cycle linkage.(3)based on the R&D model,financial leverage is added.It studies the equilibrium results of economic growth when there is no asset price bubble and deduce the conditions for the co existence of asset price bubbles and economic growth.(4)using MCMC algorithm and SV-TVP-SVAR model to verify the time varying relationship between financial leverage,asset price bubbles and economic growth three times from two angles of time and time.The empirical results show that there is a very significant time-varying characteristic between three economic variables.Finally,leveraged leverage is an inevitable choice.The definition of deleveraging is clarified and the misunderstanding of deleveraging is clarified.The paths of entity deleveraging and financial deleveraging are explored respectively.The synthetic control method(SCM)is used to test whether the loan restriction policy can restrain the real estate bubble.The empirical results show that: in the 4 research samples,the loan restriction policy can not play a role in reducing the price of commercial housing sales of 3samples;constrained by the shortcomings of the traditional asset price bubble early warning research methods and models,we try to build an asset price bubble early warning system by using support vector regression(SVR)model and BP neural network(BPNN)technology in artificial intelligence.Artificial intelligence technology can well approach and interpret the inherent laws contained in the historical data of samples,and effectively realize the early warning function.There are four policy suggestions based on the the above research findings:(1)expand the scope of monetary policy adjustment,implement the generalized price target system,construct the early warning system of money and credit flow and asset price bubbles;(2)reduce or eliminate rigid payment and unnecessary government implicit guarantee,so as to realize the marketization of state-owned assets management system and commercial bank behavior,and government duties.It can return to the essence of public management;(3)adhere to the neutral and stable monetary policy,maintain reasonable and moderate liquidity,establish a macro Prudential evaluation system MPa and implement penetration management of financial system assets to eliminate shadow banks;(4)accurately control the performance,strength,time and main body of "structural deleveraging",and reduce the leverage rate in an orderly manner. |
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