| As the economic growth enters a new normal and the impact of the "three-phase superposition" continues to deepen,the real economy's profitability and cash flow pressures increase,the real economy's investment return rate is showing a downward trend,the real enterprise's productive investment opportunities are gradually reduced,and the investment willingness is suppressed.In order to make up for the shortfalls in the main business and capture high credit spreads,driven by the motive of capital chasing profits,a large number of entity companies choose to retain cash assets in the financial market through the allocation of financial assets and investment real estate.Moreover,with the advancement of economic financialization in recent years,financial innovation activities have flourished,and financial innovation products have continued to emerge.The financialization of entities is no longer limited to traditional financial investment activities such as bonds,stocks,and investment real estate,but By using over-raised funds or diversified financing channels to expand its sights to shadow banking,the problem of “removing the real to the virtual” of the capital of physical enterprises has become increasingly prominent,which has had a significant impact on the sustainable development of the enterprise itself and the healthy development of the capital market..Entity enterprises participate in re-lending through shadow banking services as bank credit intermediaries,which will not only squeeze the share of external financing of small and medium-sized enterprises,but also may cause systemic financial risks and regulatory arbitrage risks.The harm is like drinking bad wine.By reviewing the relevant theoretical foundations and combing the existing literature,we can find that from a macro or financial perspective,we can examine the impact and mechanism of shadow banking's high-leverage and high-risk operations on financial systemic risks,and the impact of shadow banking on monetary policy and financial supervision operations.The relevant literature is relatively abundant,but from the perspective of micro-enterprise departments,the literature research on the microeconomic consequences of shadow banking of entity enterprises is relatively limited,mainly from investment efficiency,stock price collapse risk,audit risk,and operating risk and other perspectives,It is found that the shadow banking of entity enterprises is an economic activity that far outweighs the benefits for the enterprises themselves.So,will the shadow banking of entity companies affect the competitive and value effects brought about by corporate cash holdings? Will it affect the distribution level of corporate cash dividends? Will it affect the company's own cash flow risk or even default risk? The existing literature rarely touches on the above-mentioned problems,and these are the main problems that this article aims to explore,and are the research value of this article.To this end,this article is based on the literature on shadow banking and cash holdings of entity companies,focusing on the current important feature of the imbalance between the scale of shadow banking business and the level of cash holdings of China's entity companies,and using A-shares in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.The relevant data of non-financial listed companies,in accordance with the research idea of “analysis of status to influence effects to economic consequences”,analyzes the status quo of shadow banking business scale and cash holdings of entity companies,and uses the “operation of corporate cash assets”,"distribution","risk" as the entry point,combined with theoretical analysis and empirical testing methods,on the economic effects of entity shadow banking and cash holding(competitive effect and value effect),cash dividend distribution level,cash flow risk in-depth analysis was carried out on the relationship with default risk and other issues,and the following conclusions were drawn:Firstly,for the analysis of the status quo of the shadow banking business of China's entity enterprises,this article takes the non-financial listed companies participating in shadow banking in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2007 to 2018 as a sample,and uses descriptive statistical analysis to find that the number of samples It can be seen that the number of entities participating in the shadow banking re-lending business has shown an increasing trend year by year from 2007 to 2018,rising from1,518 in 2007 to 3,452 in 2016,reflecting that more and more entities are responding to shadow banking.As a form of business investment,the shadow banking of physical enterprises has become a trend.In addition,regardless of the number of entities involved in shadow banking during the sample period or the average size,the shadow banking business that indirectly participates in the "shadow credit market" is much smaller than the data of the shadow banking business of "substantial credit intermediary",and,The development status and characteristics of the shadow banking business of “substantial credit intermediary” are similar to the overall situation,indicating that entity enterprises are more inclined to participate in the credit chain as the intermediary of funds and the main body of credit creation deal directly.Secondly,in the part of the research that examines the impact of shadow banking of entity companies on the economic effect of cash holdings,this article uses nonfinancial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to2018 as a sample,and builds an empirical model based on theoretical analysis.Explore the impact of shadow banking on the "operation" of corporate cash.The results of the study show that the shadow banking of entity companies will damage the competitive effect of cash holdings and weaken the value effect of cash holdings,that is,the larger the scale of the shadow banking business of a company,the more competitive and value effects the company's cash holding behavior can exert.It is limited,and the conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests such as 2SLS estimation,Heckman twostage regression,and replacement of core variables.In addition,through further expansion analysis,it can be found that for entities with heterogeneous market arbitrage motives,financing constraints,internal control quality,and geographic regions,shadow banking will also have significant competitive and value effects on cash holdings differential influence.Thirdly,in the research part of investigating the shadow banking and cash dividend distribution of entity companies,that is,exploring the impact of shadow banking on the“distribution” of corporate cash.This article takes my country's non-financial listed companies from 2007 to 2018 as a sample,combined with theoretical analysis,with the method of empirical testing,the study found that shadow banking will significantly reduce the cash dividend distribution level of entity companies,that is,the larger the scale of the shadow banking business of the entity company,the lower the cash dividend distribution level.A series of robustness tests such as phase regression and replacement of core variables still hold true.Moreover,shadow banking also has a negative impact on the level of cash dividend distribution through an intermediate channel that intensifies the degree of financing constraints faced by enterprises.Through further analysis of expansion,it can be found that for entities with low internal control quality,non-state-owned enterprises,weak market competition,and poor external supervision,shadow banking has a stronger negative effect on the level of cash dividend distribution.In addition,this paper uses the principle of intermediary effect test to analyze and test and find that the shadow banking of entity enterprises will also increase the two types of agency costs of enterprises by reducing the level of cash dividend distribution.Fourth,in the research section that examines the relationship between shadow banking,cash flow risk and default risk of entity companies,that is,to explore the impact of shadow banking on corporate cash “risk”,this article uses Financial listed companies are the sample,using the Expected Default Frequency proposed by Bharath and Shumway(2008)as the proxy variable for corporate default risk,combined with theoretical analysis and empirical testing methods,the study found that shadow banking will increase entities The default risk of enterprises,that is,as the scale of shadow banking of entity enterprises expands,the higher the probability of default,this conclusion is based on 2SLS estimation,Heckman two-stage regression,replacement of explained variables,and sensitivity analysis of the default risk measurement It is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Moreover,based on the principle analysis of the intermediary effect test,it can be concluded that cash flow risk is the intermediate path for shadow banking to affect corporate default risk.That is to say,shadow banking will not only aggravate the default risk of entity enterprises,but also affect enterprises.The cash flow risk,and cash flow risk is also one of the important factors that exacerbate the risk of default.In addition,through further expansive analysis,it can be found that for state-owned,central and western,weak external regulatory environments,and entities in a period of economic contraction,the shadow banking business of “quasibank” has a more positive effect on their default risk significantly.The research significance of this article is mainly reflected in the following three aspects: First,at present,most of the research on shadow banking at home and abroad is based on the perspective of macroeconomics and financial markets,focusing on the impact of shadow banking on the stability of the banking system.However,the research on shadow banking and cash holdings of entities is very limited.Based on the unique cash holding speculative perspective of shadow banking of entities,this article closely links shadow banking with corporate cash holdings.,Which can provide micro-level evidence for the phenomenon of capital "removal from reality to virtuality",entity corporate shadow banking,real economy financialization,and "industrial hollowing" in China's current economic operation;second,this article uses China's economic transformation In the context of this special stage,by exploring the mechanism of competition and value effects of non-financial corporate shadow banking on cash holdings,it will not only help to understand the influencing factors of corporate cash holding economic effects and the effects of shadow banking on a deeper level.The economic consequences also provide a useful empirical basis for the country to guide the economy to "remove from the virtual to the real",restrain the shadow banking of real enterprises,guide finance to better serve the real economy,and effectively prevent and resolve financial risks.The sustainable and healthy development of the real economy has important practical significance;third,cash dividends are an important channel for investors to obtain investment returns.There have been a large number of literatures on corporate cash dividends based on agency cost theory,free cash flow hypothesis,and major shareholder embezzlement.Analysis and research on the influencing factors of distribution have been carried out,but the impact of shadow banking,a cash holding speculative opportunity,on corporate cash dividend policies has been ignored.Therefore,this article combines theoretical analysis and empirical testing to explore the impact of shadow banking on cash in entities.The impact of dividend distribution provides an important reference for investors' investment decisions,helps corporate stakeholders better understand the influencing factors of cash dividend distribution,and provides a reference for regulatory authorities to understand corporate cash dividend distribution capabilities and willingness.At the same time,It provides a useful empirical basis for optimizing the efficiency of capital market resource allocation and the formulation of policies related to preventing financial risks under the new economic normal;fourth,through theoretical and empirical analysis of the shadow banking,cash flow risk and default risk of entities On the one hand,the relationship and influence mechanism between the company's management will help the company's management to formulate a strategic direction that is conducive to the sustainable development of the company,rationally optimize the company's cash management mechanism and risk management system,and give full play to the preventive and transactional functions of cash assets.On the other hand,business development services can arouse management's awareness of optimizing corporate asset structure,and can provide experience for the capital market and creditors to predict corporate risks,which is beneficial to regulators and investors in obtaining highquality financial services for entities.information. |
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