Research Of Risk Management In The Early Stage Of National New Areas Development

The national new area is a comprehensive functional area planned and established by the State Council,which undertakes the strategic mission of national major development and reform and opening up.It plays an important role in the overall development orientation and goal realization of the country.At present,it has already established 19 national new areas in China,and more than 10 provinces and cities are in the process of applying.With the speeding up of the national new areas construction,some of them are facing with problems like the inconspicuous construction characteristic,the uncompetitive industrial competence and the low economic growth contribution rate.Moreover,some national new areas even showed up the problem of excess production capacity,and some are relying on selling land to maintain the economic growth.To preventing these problems,this paper points out the overall research of the national new area in the early stage of development period should be strengthened.There are limited articles show this specific topic from the past research.Based on the special position and policy character in the early stage development of the national new area,it is important to recognize risk of the early stage development of the national new area from defining the risk,delimiting the risk and recognizing the importance of different risks,to conduct the risk coping strategic evaluation from knowned risks,known-unknown risks,unknown-unknown risks,and to put up the corresponding strategies.The research for early stage development of the national new area could also prevent and manage risks,and promote the social and economic development.The risk evaluation which is in the early stage of development of national new areas is focused on by this paper,and the research is conducted from four parts as follow:Firstly,based on summarizing the relevant research results at home and abroad,the definitions of national new area and its early stage of development are clarified,the main work contents and problems in the early development stage of the national new area also are combed in this paper.Secondly,Delphi method is uesd in this paper.Through a three-round survey,and six kinds of risks in the early stage development of the national new area,including the risk of deviating from the development goal,the risk of industrial planning,the risk of investment attraction,the risk of environmental,the risk of life security and the risk of sustainable development gradually identified.Then,the index basket,and according to the independence,validity and computability of the index,and the "three-step" analysis process of dimensionality reduction by principal component analysis are designed.The 23 three-level risk evaluation indexes of six types of risks in the early stage of the development of national new area are obtained.Thirdly,from the perspective of knowledge management,the risks of national new area in the early stage development are divided into three types: known risk,known-unknown risk and unknown-unknown risk,and then the overall evaluation model of the early stage development risk of national new area is constructed.Based on this overall evaluation model,the statistical data samples of 19 national new areas in their early stage of development are collected,including economic development indicators,social development indicators,green risk indicators,etc.;and then a cloud model is built,and the known risks existing are evaluated in the early development period of national new areas by combining the analysis method of grey correlation degree,the calculation results are shown out that among the known risks,green risk is the main risk faced by all new areas.Jinpu new area,Liangjiang New Area and Pudong New Area in Shanghai are at a high risk of deviating from the development goals in the early stage of development.The risk of life security in Harbin new area is relatively high,and the risk of sustainable development in Xixian new area and Gui’an new area is large.The dynamic Bayesian network model constructed by Granger causality test is applied to the national level in the early stage of the development of the new area,the known-unknown risks are evaluated.The calculation results are shown out that among the known unknown risks,the known unknown risks of Liangjiang New Area,Jinpu new area and Fuzhou new area deviate from the development goals are higher,the known-unknown risks of Changchun new area,Jinpu new area,Harbin new area,Nansha New Area and Liangjiang New Area are higher,and the known-unknown risks of industrial planning of Dianzhong new area and Gui’an new area and Xihaian new area are higher.The EM algorithm and Baum Welch algorithm for solving the hidden unknown parameters of the hidden Markov model by using the entropy of the degree of disorder are used to evaluate the unknown risks existing in the early stage of the development of the national new area.The analysis of the calculation results are shown out that,among the unknown risks,the unknown unknown risks in the early stage of the development of Xixian new area,Xiangjiang new area,Liangjiang New Area,Jiangbei new area,Tianfu new area and Binhai New Area are found High risk..Finally,based on the results of risk evaluation and analysis in the early stage of the development of national new area,a 6R risk response strategy model in the early stage of the development of national new area is constructed,and risk reduction to the risk response in the early stage of the development of national new area is applied,risk identification,risk reconstruction,risk readiness and risk response and risk recovery are used to effectively prevent and resolve the known risks,known unknown risks and unknown unknown risks in the early stage of the development of national new areas.