Research On Epidemic Mitigation Policies And Tools Based On Epidemic Model And Actuarial Model

In December 2019,the COVID-19 epidemic struck suddenly and spread rapidly around the world.In addition to posing a serious threat to the life and health of all human beings,the outbreak of COVID-19 has also caused huge direct economic losses and a series of secondary disasters.The various anti-epidemic policies accompanying the epidemic have affected many areas of society,as well as every aspect of everyone’s life and work.In order to protect people’s livelihood and economy while fighting against the epidemic,countries have also introduced various economic measures to maintain financial and economic stability.Based on the epidemic model and actuarial model,this thesis studies the epidemic mitigation policies and tools under different epidemic development stages.Generally speaking,there are three scenarios for the spread of infectious disease,namely,Epidemic,Pandemic,and Endemic.To better respond to the COVID-19 crisis,countries need to introduce reasonable epidemic prevention measures and economic measures according to their actual conditions at different stages of the evolution of the epidemic.For the above urgent practical problems,there are still many gaps in current research to be filled and improved.In the second chapter of this thesis,we study the optimal usage strategy of epidemic catastrophe insurance compensation.First,we construct an epidemic model that considers multiple types of infected people,give and analyze the basic reproduction number R0,and then study the existence of equilibrium,the stability of equilibrium,and the persistence of epidemic.Based on this model,we introduce an epidemic catastrophe insurance plan,and then give the optimal usage strategy of its compensation and analyze the relationship between the optimal strategy and several important epidemic parameters.In the third chapter of this thesis,we study the optimal epidemic mitigation strategies of cross-region decision makers.First,we specifically consider the impact of epidemic severity on net population flow,and then propose a cross-region epidemic model with population mobility.We give and analyze the basic reproduction number R0.We consider two types of economic costs,and under the framework of simultaneous decision-making game,we obtain the optimal epidemic mitigation strategies of the decision makers.Then,we conduct a sensitivity analysis and discuss in particular the impact of travel restrictions on economic costs.In the fourth chapter of this thesis,we propose and study a family of risk measures with variable risk attitudes.The risk measure we proposed can dynamically adjust its risk attitude according to the risk characteristics of the market,adapting it to the drastic changing environment.First we propose SlideVaR,and then generalize it to SlideMeasure.We analyze the properties of the two from the perspective of stochastic order,and give some examples.Finally,we construct a portfolio insurance based on SlideMeasure.The numerical simulation results show that SlideMeasure has obvious advantages in the volatile market environment.In the fifth chapter of this thesis,we study the fair pricing of commercial epidemic insurance in the endemic stage.First,we construct a general multi-group epidemic model.Then,we give and analyze the basic reproduction number R0,and then study the existence of equilibrium,the stability of equilibrium,and the persistence of epidemic.On the endemic equilibrium,we construct an individual-oriented epidemic commercial insurance plan and give its fair pricing method.The epidemic mitigation tools proposed in this thesis are forward-looking and innovative,which can provide reference for policymakers to formulate policies,and can help people reduce the cost of anti-epidemic and reduce economic losses while fighting the epidemic.