The Research On The Difference Of Economic Growth Between North And South In China Under The Constraint Of Water Resources

The report of the 19 th CPC National Congress pointed out that "the main contradiction in China’s society has been transformed into the contradiction between the people’s growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and insufficient development".The "North-South gap" in economic growth is an important embodiment of unbalanced and insufficient development.At present,the focus of discussion on the "North-South gap" is whether it will become a long-term phenomenon,this requires attention to the impact of resource and environmental constraints on economic growth.Water is the source of life,the key to production and the basis of ecology.It is an irreplaceable basic support for economic and social development.The total amount of water resources in south is about four times that in north,but the per capita water consumption in north and south is basically the same.The utilization of water resources has a differentiated impact on the economic development of north and south,especially after the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system,"three red lines" The assessment indicators form a rigid constraint on the differentiation of water use scale in the north and south regions,and the internal relationship between water resources utilization and the "North-South gap" is further enriched,which has become an important factor that must be considered when coordinating the "North-South gap".This study will focus on the restrictive effect of water resources utilization on economic growth in the north and south,explore the practical characteristics,theoretical connotation,impact mechanism and level of economic growth differences between the north and south under the constraint of water resources,and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The content and structure of this paper are as follows.The first part is the theoretical framework construction and evolution characteristics analysis.On the basis of sorting out the relevant literature and theoretical methods of the impact of water resources constraints on economic growth,expand the connotation of water resources constraints,establish a composite system of water resources and social economy,put forward the theoretical explanation and logical framework of regional economic growth differences under water resources constraints,and enrich and expand this framework from the three dimensions of total water consumption,structure and efficiency.Applying the results of theoretical analysis,this paper investigates the evolution process of the difference between water resources utilization and economic growth in the north and south,identifies the characteristic facts of the difference in water resources utilization in each stage,summarizes the evolution law of the relationship between water resources utilization and economic development in the north and south,and finds that the economic growth in the north and south under the constraint of water resources since the new century presents three new characteristics,namely,the stage difference of economic growth,kinetic energy transformation and resource constraint,the long-term difference of factor endowment,development potential and development orientation,as well as the trend difference of total water use control,structural adjustment and efficiency improvement.Combined with the theoretical logical framework,it is found that these characteristics mainly come from three levels,including the difference of total water use constraints in water rich and poor areas,the difference of water use structure constraints after industrial and urban expansion,and the difference of water use efficiency constraints under the support of systems and projects,which form the logical starting point of this paper.The second part is the empirical analysis.Focusing on the realistic representation of the differences in water resources utilization and economic growth between the north and the south since the new century,using the data from 2000 to2019,this paper constructs the "damping effect" model of water resources utilization on economic growth by observing the dynamic relationship,stage characteristics and spatial characteristics between economic growth and total water use,water use structure and water use efficiency in the north and the south,and drawing lessons from the tail effect theory.Discuss the difference of economic growth between the north and the south under the restriction of total water use in stages and plates.According to the industrial water use mechanism,this paper analyzes the theoretical relationship between water use structure and economic growth,explores the impact of various types of water use on economic growth differences in the north and south,and depicts the constraint differences of water use structure in the north and south at multiple levels.The constraint mechanism of water use efficiency is analyzed from the water use process.By constructing the coupling and coordination model of water use efficiency system and economic growth system,the impact of total water use constraint on economic growth difference in north and south regions is analyzed,and the causes of the difference are found.The third part is the research conclusion,prospect and suggestion.This paper summarizes the characteristics,causes and mechanism of economic growth differences between the north and the south under water resources constraints,and finds that the economic growth differences between the north and the south under water resources constraints are the result of the joint action of total water consumption,structure and efficiency constraints.The change of the restriction level of total water use before and after 2013 in the north and the south,widened the gap of economic growth by about 0.3 percentage points.This change may be due to the greater blocking effect of the increasing pressure of domestic and ecological water use in the north on economic growth,and the greater decline of the restriction effect of water use efficiency on economic growth in the south.Based on the logic of China’s water resources management system and the actual situation of water resources utilization in the north and the south,the trend characteristics of economic growth differences between the north and the south under the constraints of water resources in China are discussed and prospected.Reasonably study and judge the impact of the above situation on the current policy system,scientifically formulate response strategies,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to alleviate the constraints of water resources in the north and the south and promote their coordinated development from the two levels of regional development policy and water resources management policy.On the basis of previous studies,this paper makes some innovative explorations and attempts.First,the "North-South gap" is analyzed from the perspective of water resources constraints,so the research object and perspective are innovative.Since the new century,the "North-South gap" has gradually become the focus of attention,especially the water shortage problem in the north has become the key constraint on its sustainable economic growth.In addition,with the promulgation of China’s strictest water resources management system in 2012,the impact of water resources institutional constraints on the economic growth of the north and the south will be further expanded and show a differentiated trend.However,there is no research on the "North-South gap" from the perspective of water resources constraints in the academic circle,The results of this paper will help to deepen the understanding of the characteristics,trends and causes of the "North-South gap",and form a supplement to the existing research.Second,it constructs an analysis framework of the economic growth difference between the north and the south under the constraints of water resources,including total water consumption,structure and efficiency,so the research ideas and technical routes are innovative.This paper constructs the theoretical framework of water resources constraints from the three levels of total water use,water use structure and water use efficiency,explains the differences in the role of water resources constraints on economic growth in the north and the south,and can better combine the regional water resources endowment,water resources utilization behavior,water resources institutional constraints and the level of economic growth,so that the relevant theories of water resources management can be better applied to the study of economic growth in a country or a large area,it is helpful to improve the foresight and pertinence of the research on regional economic growth differences under water resources constraints.Thirdly,it is proposed that the interactive relationship between the time sequence and degree of multiple constraints of water resources utilization in the north and the south has promoted the difference of economic growth.The research conclusions and countermeasures are innovative.This paper proposes that the change of total water use restriction in the north and South regions around 2013 will expand the gap of economic growth by about 0.3 percentage points,and the expansion of domestic and ecological water in the north will block economic growth by 0.14 percentage points.In addition,the restriction level of water use efficiency in the south will decline faster after 2011,which will jointly promote the expansion of the difference of economic growth.These judgments concern that under the same constraint logic,the regional economic growth of water rich and water poor areas is affected by the differentiation of water resources utilization,which contributes more theoretical basis to improve the internal consistency between water resources management and regional development policies at the spatial level.Fourth,it optimizes the application strategy of correspondence analysis methods in empirical test,makes the research conclusions richer and closer to reality,and provides more empirical evidence for understanding the water resources constraints and growth differences between the north and the south.When analyzing the constraints of water use structure in the north and the south,three groups of corresponding relationships are established: agricultural water and agricultural economic growth,industrial water and industrial economic growth,domestic and ecological water and service industry and construction industry economic growth,which improves the inconsistency problem caused by counting the added value of construction industry as industrial water output,and makes the empirical analysis results closer to reality.