Analysis Of Emission Control Area Boundary Effects At Sea

To reduce global emissions from ships,the International Maritime Organization(IMO)has designated specific areas as Emission Control Areas(ECAs)to reduce pollutant emissions from ships.To comply with the ECA regulations,ship operators have utilized diverse abatement techniques.Currently,the primary methods of reducing emissions from ships include the utilization of low sulfur oils(fuel switching),the installation of scrubbers on ships,and the application of LNG on ships,which affects ships’ routes and speed.To minimize the cost of navigation,ship operators may choose heavy fuel oil at high speed outside the ECA and marine gas oil at low speed inside the ECA,which influences the ship’s trajectory.Understanding such,this paper mainly investigates the trajectory,speed,emissions,and navigation costs of ships in the ECA boundary area.The primary research context of this paper is as follows.(1)Empirical analysis of ECA boundariesIn the previous ECA studies,majority has focused on optimization and many scholars have studied the changes in ship routes and speed under the ECA regulations.Based on the literature review,this study uses Automatic Identification System(AIS)data,ship static data,and geographical data,combined with data description,data mining,machine learning,and emission modeling.We analyzed the ECA and ECA boundaries in terms of three aspects:vessel trajectory,speed,and emissions.This study verifies that under the ECA regulations,some ships’ routes could change and ships might navigate around the ECA boundary,which will lead to an increase in pollutant emissions at the ECA boundary.This phenomenon is called the ECA boundary effect phenomenon.(2)Environmental impact of ECA boundary effectsThis study employs AIS data and ships’ static data,combined with data description,machine learning,and emission modeling,to estimate the emission inventory of ships in the ECA boundary area.Based on the data of ship emissions,this study defines the ECA boundary effect indicators and,at the meantime,analyses the emissions from ships at the ECA boundary under the modification of sulfur content policy in 2020.(3)Impact of ECA boundary effects on global emissionsThis study uses AIS data and ships’ static data,combined with data description,machine learning,and emission modeling,to estimate ship emission inventories for different regions.Based on ship emissions and ECA regulations,this study calculates the growth rates of emissions from bulk carriers,container ships,and tankers.(4)ECA boundary effect sensitivity analysisChanges in the global sulfur policy and fuel prices affect the ECA boundary effect.This study uses AIS data,ship static data,fuel price data,and geographical data,combined with data description,machine learning,emission models,and cost models to estimate the emissions and costs of ships in different scenarios.The reasons for the emergence of ECA boundary effects are revealed.(5)Case-based reasoning for ECA boundary effect ship identificationAlthough many ships are navigating in the ECA boundary,not all of them have the ECA boundary effect.This study uses AIS data,ship static data,and geographic data,combined with data description,machine learning,and case inference to establish ECA boundary effect indicators and a case base.This study obtained the similarity between the historical cases and the problem to be solved by finding the weights of the case indicators through the back propagation(BP)neural network,so as to achieve the identification of ECA boundary effect ships.This research provide a data basis for the changes of routes under the ECA regulations,and analyze the ECA boundary effects under such changes.Thus,it is believed to lay a theoretical basis for reducing global pollution emissions and offering valuable insights for policy making in the future.