| Climate change causes changes in temperature,rainfall and atmospheric conditions,which expose plants to harsh and extreme weather conditions.Understanding the response of species to climate change is one of the most pressing questions facing biologists today.The prediction and simulation of plant species distribution patterns in many response processes is a common research hotspot in applied ecology and biogeography.In addition,interdisciplinary collaboration provides a new perspective for predicting species’ environmental tolerance.Compared with traditional field resource surveys and physiological experiments,online plant geographic distribution and its associated climate database can provide researchers with a complete list of plants easily and quickly.Finally,confirmatory physiological experiments based on data analysis can provide a strong scientific basis for this emerging field.China’s vast territory makes it the natural distribution center of Lilium.The complex climate provides diverse growth conditions for lily populations.At present,there is no research on the response of wild lily resources to climate change in China.Based on this background,this study addresses the following scientific questions:What is the potential distribution of Lilium resources in China using climate and geographic data modeling? What are the major climatic factors limiting the potential distribution of lily? How is the future distribution of lily likely to change under climate change? Is it possible to reverse-model the adaptation of lilies to the environment using climatic factors that limit their distribution? Are the data predictions accurate?The main findings of this paper are as follows:(1)The relationship between the geographical distribution of Lilium and climate in China.By using the online information of NPSRC and GBIF,as well as the relevant literature published on CNKI as supplement,we successfully constructed the specimen distribution database of Lilium resources in China.The potential distribution of 42 Lilium taxa in China was studied by combining Lilium specimen database and corresponding climatic data.The results showed that the distribution center of 24 taxa were located in southwest China,8 in northeast China,and4 in central China.Of all taxa,L.lancifolium has the most extensive potential distribution.The distribution area of L.henryi,L.distichum,L.sempervivoideum,L.bakerianum var.yunnanense,L.amoenum,L.martagon var.pilosiusculum,L.cernuum,L.apertum is narrow.These results suggest the need to strengthen the investigation and conservation of these eight lily species.In this study,heat was the dominant factor affecting the distribution of Lilium species in China,and the difference in temperature year(BIO07)was the factor affecting the habitat suitability of the most species of Lilium species,indicating that most Lilium species were sensitive to the difference in temperature year,and the appropriate temperature difference was the key climate condition for the growth of wild Lilium species.Compared with the positive skew distribution of hydrological factors,the distribution trend of heat factor response curve in each lily species was not completely consistent,which seemed to indicate the different adaptability of Lily resources in China to water and heat.This also led to the follow-up study of this subject,namely,the evaluation of Lilium saline-alkali resistance,drought resistance and heat resistance based on online data in Part(3).(2)Future distribution of Lilium in China under climate changeBy combining the distribution information of Lilium taxa with relevant future climate data,we further analyzed the distribution areas of 42 taxa in China under climate change.All taxa were divided into reduced group,expanded group and uncertain group.Lilies in the reduced group included L.nepalense,L.primulinum var.ochraceum,L.nepalense var.burmanicum,L.bakerianum var.rubrum,L.bakerianum var.aureum,L.bakerianum var.yunnanense,L.taliense,L.souliei,L.nanum,L.lankongense,L.saluenense,L.lophophorum,L.wardii,a total of 13 species.All the 13 species of Lilium taxa will be negatively affected by climate change,so future research should focus on the conservation of Lilium species.In the uncertain group,except L.henrici,the suitable areas of the other seven Lilium species expanded under SSP126 and decreased under SSP585.Our results suggest that most Lilium species in China will benefit from future climate change.(3)Evaluation of temperature tolerance of Lilium in ChinaDifferent trends in lily responses to hydrologic and thermal factors in the current climate led to this part of the study.Here we through three parties in the face of our country to abiotic environmental conditions of the lily family adaptability are studied:(1)Based on the quantitative analysis of the actual ecological niche of lily in saline-alkali and drought,we revealed the effects of other abiotic factors except heat on the habitat suitability of lily;(2)Heat and cold resistance of Lilium chinensis were predicted based on geographical distribution and climatic data;(3)The heat tolerance of 8 taxa was evaluated based on physiological experiments,in order to support the predicted results above.The saline-alkali and drought conditions corresponding to the realistic niche of Lilium showed no significant interspecific differences in saline-alkali and drought conditions.The elimination of the interference of other abiotic stress factors laid a good foundation for the subsequent prediction of temperature tolerance of lily.Finally,13 germplasm resources of heat and cold tolerance were selected from 42 species of Lilium.Finally,we screened 13 heat and cold resistant germplasm resources from 42 lily species.Six lily species with potential tolerance to high temperature stress were,ranked from weak to strong in heat resistance,L.lancifolium,L.callosum,L.brownii,L.rosthornii,L.henryi,L.speciosum var.gloriosoides.According to the niche width,L.speciosum var.gloriosoides and L.henryi could be divided into narrow type,while L.lancifolium and L.brownii could be divided into broad tolerance heat resistant type.Seven taxa with potential tolerance to cold stress were,ranked from weak to strong in cold tolerance,L.pumilum,L.concolor,L.concolor var.pulchellum,L.cernuum,L.distichum,L.maragon var.pilosiusculum,L.dauricum.Among the predicted cold-tolerant lilies,L.dauricum is a high quality cold-tolerant broad-adapted lily.L.pumilum,L.concolor,L.concolor var.pulchellum also showed a wide range of suitability to mean temperature in the coldest season,but their cold tolerance was slightly weaker than that of L.dauricum.In addition,L.cernuum,L.distichum,L.maragon var.pilosiusculum could be classified as narrow cold-tolerant Lilium.Finally,physiological experiments were carried out to verify the heat resistance ranking results predicted earlier,which further confirmed the reliability of the results.These results provide a comprehensive overview of the tolerance of Lilium plants to abiotic stress in China,and the selected heat-resistant germplasm can be used as highquality candidate resources for future Lilium genetic breeding projects.These results will provide valuable insights into the adaptability of lily taxa under climate change,and further lay a theoretical foundation for future conservation and utilization of wild lily resources in China under climate change. |
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