Research On The Evolution And Intervention Strategy Of Terrorist Organization Based On Multiplex Network

The activities of terrorist organizations have caused serious problems to the order of social life and people’s security,and have a huge negative impact on culture and economy.With the global expansion of terrorism,terrorist groups exhibit an obvious trend of networked and large-scale.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the evolution of terrorist organizations,thus to understand the idea propagation,structure construction,evolution,and decline of the organizations,and discover their evolution laws,so as to understand the activities of terrorist organizations and construct effective intervention strategies.Focusing on the evolution of terrorist organizations,this paper systematically sorts out the macro process and research framework of the evolution of terrorist organizations.Around the life cycle process of an organization,computational experimental models are constructed to analyze the idea propagation,construction,evolution and decline of an organization.The main work of this paper is as follows:First,though the analysis of the evolution theory and evolution process of terrorist organizations,combined with social evolution theory,social selection theory and computational experiment method,a research framework of terrorist organization evolution with general significance is constructed.Second,the mechanism and influence model of violent extremism are studied.Aiming at the opinion propagation process of terrorists,an Agent simulation system is constructed based on opinion dynamics,and the influence of two external environments on the process is studied.The results show that the existence of the extreme opinion will promote the generation of extremist supporters,and social communication environment and external intervention can affect this process.Third,the method of structural modeling,reduction and measurement for terrorist organizations are studied.In view of the construction period of terrorist organizations,considering the multiple social relations between organizational members,a multiplex network model and measurement index of terrorist organizations are constructed,followed with an improved reduction method f.The stability of terrorist organization under multiplex network is analyzed.The results show that the multi-layer network model can better characterize the internal multivariate relationship characteristics of terrorist organizations,and the corresponding measurement indicators have practical significance.The reduction model of the network can reduce the computational complexity of the multi-layer network under the premise of retaining information.Forth,the structural evolution of terrorist organizations is studied.Based on the multi-layer network construction of terrorist organizations and the vertical analysis theory,the macro evolution law of terrorist organizations is studied by constructing the evolution index of terrorist organizations.By constructing a preference measurement method based on multi-layer network attributes,the micro-individual behavior law in the evolution of terrorist organizations is studied.Fifth,the effectiveness conditions of the intervention strategy against terrorist organizations are studied.Based on the constructed computational experimental model,the effectiveness of the strike strategy against specific terrorist organizations is analyzed.The validity conditions of the strategy are clarified.Finally,the study summarizes the prevention and control strategies of terrorism.Based on the above conclusions,the anti-terrorism strategy framework of “strikeprevention-governance” and the specific implementation process are constructed.On the basis of this framework,the government-terrorist organization binary conflict game model is further constructed for those terrorist organizations that are difficult to collapse and can make independent decisions,which provides a theoretical basis for the government to deal with terrorism.The research can provide theoretical basis for understanding the internal structure,evolution mechanism and counter-terrorism measures of terrorist organizations.The computational experimental technology and theoretical framework for the evolution process of terrorist organizations are formed,and the application of computational experimental methods in the calculation of organizational evolution is expanded.It provides decision-making basis for further understanding the activity law and intervention logic of terrorist organizations,and improves the national ability to prevent and control terrorism.