| Over the past two centuries,human activities have exerted profound impacts on the natural environment,particularly on the provision and quality of ecosystem services.Ecosystem services,defined as the contributions of the natural environment to human well-being,constitute an integral component of the Earth’s ecosystems.With population growth and economic development,humanity’s dependence on and impact upon these services have reached unprecedented levels.Notably,within karst ecological fragile zones,the changes in ecosystem services exhibit complex dynamic characteristics,wherein the study of trade-offs and synergistic mechanisms is of significant importance for promoting sustainable development in these regions.This study aims to delve into the evolutionary processes of ecosystem services within karst areas,focusing on understanding trade-offs and synergistic mechanisms.It endeavors to address three scientific queries: 1)How can the changes in ecosystem services within karst mountainous areas be quantified in terms of time and space,and how can models be optimized to accurately reflect their characteristics? 2)How can spatio-temporal cube analysis technology be applied to capture and analyze the dynamic changes in ecosystem services within karst mountainous areas? 3)What tradeoffs and synergistic relationships exist among different ecosystem services in karst mountainous areas,and how does the temporal dimension influence these mechanisms?To this end,this research,taking the Panjiang River Basin as a case study,proposes a novel methodology that integrates traditional GIS analysis with spatio-temporal mining technology,against the backdrop of the unique geological structure,complex terrain,and the high heterogeneity of its ecosystems.Utilizing advanced ecosystem service assessment models,this study quantifies seven key ecosystem services—agriculture/forestry supply,water conservation,soil retention,carbon sequestration,water purification,habitat quality,and landscape aesthetics—from 1985 to 2020,to precisely delineate the evolutionary patterns of ecosystem services within karst mountainous areas.Spatio-temporal analysis technology is employed to construct a spatio-temporal cube of ecosystem services for the Panjiang River Basin,facilitating a comprehensive analysis of its spatio-temporal evolutionary patterns.Moreover,a spatio-temporal trade-off/synergy identification model based on the multi-scale geographic weighted regression(MGTWR)model was improved by combining the multi-scale geographic weighted regression(MGWR)model with the time-scale geographic weighted regression(GTWR)model,which was used to measure the complex interactions between paired ecosystem services and clusters of ecosystem services,thereby elucidating the trade-off/synergistic mechanisms among ecosystem services in the Panjiang River Basin.This study provides a new methodological framework and tools for the management of ecosystem services in karst mountainous areas.This study draws the following conclusions:1)After analysing the static data from1985 to 2020,it was concluded that the ecosystem services of the Panjiang River Basin showed good stability and resilience,but also reflected some vulnerability and sensitivity in the midst of rapid development and environmental changes.As for provisioning services,the supply capacity of agricultural and forestry products in the study area shows a certain trend of growth,although it fluctuates in some time periods.Changes in water conservation services are closely related to rainfall patterns and topographic features,and generally show fluctuating changes.As for regulating services,water purification services showed a certain fluctuating trend,but were generally stable,indicating that the study area has strong water purification and regulating capacity.Carbon sequestration services experienced ups and downs,but generally showed a certain degree of decline.For support services,habitat quality showed a slight overall decline,but has recovered in recent years due to the implementation of ecological protection measures.Cultural landscape services have benefited from the development of regional culture and tourism,showing signs of improvement..2)The ecosystem services within the basin display significant spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability,particularly the distribution of cold and hot spots in water conservation and soil retention services,highlighting the urgency and complexity of management.Consequently,this study proposes that areas with sustained and intensified cold spots should enhance ecological restoration and environmental protection efforts,while positive management practices in hot spot areas should be replicated and promoted.3)The study’s results show complex dynamic changes in ecosystem services over time within the basin.Most ecosystem services exhibit synergistic relationships,yet several key trade-offs were observed in the northwestern part of the Panjiang River Basin,reflecting unique temporal trade-off phenomena in karst areas.4)Additionally,four ecosystem service clusters identified using spatio-temporal clustering technology complement the explanatory power of paired ecosystem service interactions,offering a new perspective on understanding regional ecosystem service combinations and their spatial variability.Habitat quality,particularly prominent in clusters 3 and 4,underscores the importance of these areas for ecological protection.Water purification service,significant in clusters 1,2,and 3,indicates that water resource management and protection are critical across the entire basin.Through spatio-temporal analysis models depicting ecosystem services in the Panjiang River Basin,this study aspires to provide a new methodological framework for the comprehensive assessment and management of ecosystem services in karst areas.It aims to assist decision-makers and environmental management departments in better understanding and balancing the interactions among ecosystem services,fostering winwin strategies for regional ecological protection and economic sustainable development.Additionally,it offers valuable references and insights for other regions worldwide with similar geographical and ecological characteristics. |
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