| At present,China has the world’s largest high-speed railway(HSR)network,and by the end of 2020,the operating mileage of high-speed railways in China has reached38,000 kilometers,accounting for more than 60 % of the total mileage of high-speed railways in the world.According to the " Outline of the Advanced Railway Planning for a Powerful Country in the New Era",China will continue to invest in the construction of high-speed railways for a considerable period time in the future.At present,China is facing the pressure of steady economic growth and the challenge of green transformation,and infrastructure investment will remain the main focus of steady growth for a period of time in the future.As an important investment area,the impact of high-speed rail investment is necessary for in-depth analysis.There are many studies on high-speed railways,but they mainly discuss the impact after the opening of high-speed railways,and less focus on the impact of high-speed railways investment.In addition,there are some scholars who believe that a large amount of high-speed railway investment has squeezed out the investment in conventional rail.To accurately evaluate the impact of high-speed railway investment,it is necessary to clarify the difference between the impact of high-speed railway and conventional railway investment,which has been ignored by existing studies.In addition,in the context of the green transformation of China’s economy and society,while analyzing the economic impact of high-speed rail investment,it is also necessary to consider its environmental impact.However,existing studies rarely evaluate the economic and environmental effects of the high-speed rail under the same comprehensive framework.Based on the above background,this paper focuses on the following three questions:(1)How much impact did the high-speed rail investment in the past ten years have on China’s economic growth,and will it be able to take up the important role of stabilizing growth in the future?(2)What are the differences between the economic and environmental effects of investment in high-speed rail and conventional rail?(3)Under the constraints of existing high-speed rail planning policies and possible future carbon emission reduction policies,what are the comprehensive impacts of continuous investment in high-speed rail on China ’s economy and environment? The answers to these questions are both an important decision basis for the optimization of China’s highspeed rail investment policy and an urgent need for high-quality and sustainable development of China’s economy.This paper analyzes the economic and environmental impact mechanism of highspeed railway investment by combining multiplier effect,feedback effect,and environmental externality,and constructs a theoretical analysis framework of the economic and environmental effects of high-speed railway investment.Based on the theoretical analysis,a dynamic CGE model of the high-speed railway(HSR-DCGE)is constructed to conduct historical simulation and policy simulation of the economic and environmental effects of high-speed railway investment.In the historical simulation part,since the statistics of HSR-related data start from 2008 and China has officially entered the rapid construction stage of HSR after 2008,the period of 2008-2020 is selected as the simulation interval,and the annual changes in HSR and conventional railway investment are used as shocks for simulation to examine the contribution of HSR investment and conventional railway investment to economic growth and the resulting changes of carbon emissions.In the simulation of HSR policy,the period of 2021-2035 is chosen as the simulation interval,and a 250 km/h HSR is built as the baseline scenario.Four different HSR investment scenarios are set,namely,S1,S2,S3 and S4,which are higher than the baseline scenario,lower than the baseline scenario,and equal to the baseline scenario but with different growth rates.The economic and environmental impacts of the different HSR investment scenarios are assessed.In addition,considering the environmental effects of HSR investment and the carbon emission reduction pressure faced by China,the HSR policy is overlaid with the carbon emission reduction policy for simulation analysis,and four different scenarios are set to evaluate the impact of increased HSR investment on economic growth and carbon emissions under the background of carbon emission reduction policy by combining carbon intensity constraints and carbon tax measures.The following conclusions were obtained from the simulation results:(1)High-speed railway investment has a driving effect on economic growth,and it is feasible to use high-speed railway construction as a strategic means to stabilize economic growth.In the future,when the total amount of high-speed railway investment grows at the same rate,the scenario with higher growth rate has a more significant driving effect on economic growth,which indicates that the moderately advanced construction of high-speed railway has a stimulating effect on the economy.However,as the marginal return of high-speed railway investment has reached its peak in 2015,the contribution of continuous investment in high-speed railway to economic growth will gradually weaken in the future;(2)High-speed railway investment drives the development of various industries and can promote industrial structure upgrading,with relatively large contributions to industries such as scientific research and technical services,passenger and freight transportation of railroads,coal,other extractive industries,petroleum,electricity,natural gas,manufacturing,and financial industries,especially the most significant contribution to the output of scientific research and technical services;(3)There are differences in the economic and environmental effects generated by HSR investment and conventional railway investment,with the average contribution of HSR investment to economic growth((0.104%)is slightly higher than that of conventional railway investment(0.095%),while the investment multiplier of conventional railway(1.92)is also slightly higher than that of conventional railway(1.89),the increase in carbon emissions due to the increase in conventional railway investment is 3.66 million tons more than that of conventional railway,while the carbon emissions per unit of conventional railway investment(0.561 million tons/billion yuan)is greater than that of conventional railway(0.553 million tons/billion yuan),indicating that the construction process of conventional railway;(4)The continuous investment in HSR has a negative effect on the environment,and the increase in carbon emissions is mainly generated by coal energy.High-speed rail investments have resulted in an increase of 10.5 million tons of carbon emissions between 2008 and 2020.During the period from 2021 to 2035,the carbon emissions of the S1 will increase by 47.34 million tons,while the S2 will reduce carbon emissions by 107.92 million tons as the investment in high-speed rail decreases;(5)The impact of high-speed rail investment under different carbon reduction policy constraints is different.Under the carbon intensity constraint,HSR investment can promote economic growth,and the carbon intensity policy can offset the carbon emissions generated by the increase in HSR investment,but it is difficult to achieve the carbon emission reduction target in 2030.While with the addition of carbon tax measures,the increase in GDP from the increase in HSR investment cannot offset the loss in GDP caused by the emission reduction policy,but it can help achieve the carbon emission reduction target in 2030.Based on the findings of the study,the following policy recommendations are proposed:(1)prudently choose the investment strategy of high-speed railway,and reasonably control its investment scale and growth rate;(2)examine the relationship between high-speed railway and its related industries,and enhance the technological innovation capability of high-speed railway industry;(3)adjust the construction scale of high-speed railway and conventional railway,and optimize the railroad planning layout;(4)pay attention to the negative environmental externalities of high-speed railway investment,and promote the low-carbon construction and development of high-speed railway;(5)to bring into play the carbon emission reduction policy of the market mechanism,and mobilize the carbon emission reduction enthusiasm of economic agents.The academic contributions of this paper are as follows:(1)a comprehensive analysis framework of the economic and environmental impacts of HSR is constructed,which enriches the existing theoretical studies related to HSR;(2)a social accounting matrix for HSR is compiled and a dynamic CGE model(HSR-DCGE)for HSR is constructed,which provides a basic database and an empirical analysis framework for HSR research;(3)a simulation baseline and simulation scenarios for HSR investment are set,the economic and environmental impacts of HSR investment and the combined impact of carbon emission reduction policy constraints superimposed on HSR policy are quantitatively assessed. |
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