Research On Capacity Configuration Optimization And Decision-making Model Of Wind-Photovoltaic-Hydrogen Integrated Energy System

Energy production and consumption are the largest sources of carbon dioxide emissions.Vigorously promoting emission reduction and carbon reduction in the energy field is a key measure to achieve the"peak carbon dioxide emissions" and "carbon neutrality" goal and to build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient modern energy system.The large-scale development and utilization of clean energy dominated by wind and solar energy is an important guarantee to support the low-carbon transformation in the energy field.However,the full utilization and consumption of renewable energy power generation such as wind and photovoltaic still face difficulties and challenges,and it is difficult to meet the urgent needs of green and low-carbon transformation under the current development situation.The development and layout of multi-energy complementarity,coupling and interaction,and collaborative alternative energy systems can effectively solve the above problems.Therefore,combined with the development background and policy guidance,this paper studies the capacity configuration optimization and decision-making model of the integrated energy system coupled with renewable energy power generation and hydrogen energy storage.This study deeply consider the comprehensiveness of carbon emission accounting and respond to the development requirements of integrated energy projects in the "peak carbon dioxide emissions" and"carbon neutrality" goal.To improve the planning and decision-making theory and methods of such energy systems and enhance the efficiency of resource configuration,to help the green and low-carbon transformation and upgrading of the energy field,and improve the comprehensive development benefits of the economy and society.The main research work carried out in this paper is as follows:(1)The research background and significance of this paper are analyzed;The research status and trends of capacity configuration optimization and decision-making of integrated energy systems at home and abroad are combed;The typical structure,key characteristics and relevant theories and methods of planning and decision-making of integrated energy system under the new situation are analyzed;It demonstrates the necessity,rationality and foresight of this study.Firstly,the research status at home and abroad is combed from three aspects:the development situation and research trends of the integrated energy system,the optimization model of system capacity configuration,system performance analysis and decision optimization model;This paper analyzes the research deficiencies and the progress that can be made on this basis.Secondly,the typical structure,coupling and interaction characteristics and the basic idea of planning and modeling of integrated energy system under the new development situation are analyzed.Then,this study compares and analyzes various uncertainty processing methods and model solving methods in the process of capacity configuration optimization modeling;In the process of decision optimization modeling,the representation and processing method of uncertain decision information,the determination method of analysis element weight and ranking optimization method.Further,the characteristics,applicable scenarios,advantages and disadvantages of various methods are summarized.The above research results provide applicability and reliability support for the methods involved in the main modeling content.(2)Combined with the design objectives and policy guidance of wind-photovoltaichydrogen integrated energy system,the system capacity configuration optimization and decision-making mechanism considering the whole life cycle carbon dioxide emission are proposed.Firstly,the research object of this paper is defined,that is,wind-photovoltaichydrogen integrated energy system(the system in the chapter title is the research object);The basic structure,coupling interaction and operation strategy of the system are determined;Based on the characteristics of coupling and interaction,the mathematical modeling of each subsystem is given.Secondly,the accounting boundary and accounting objectives of the system are set,and the carbon dioxide emission results of the whole life cycle of the key equipment of the system are calculated,which can be directly used as the basic input and reference for the subsequent system capacity configuration optimization and decision-making modeling.Further,it clarifies the response and boosting effect of the research results of life cycle carbon accounting on the implementation of relevant policies;Based on the timing perspective,the key guiding contents(strict protection of ecological environment,overall development of system security,priority development of conditional areas,coordination with other fields,implementation of carbon assessment and carbon management,etc.)of integrated energy development in the relevant policy documents of"peak carbon dioxide emissions" and"carbon neutrality" goal are sorted and analyzed At the same time,the design objectives and functional requirements of the system are clarified by analyzing the key stakeholders involved in the wind-photovoltaic-hydrogen integrated energy system,and pave the way for the analysis and discussion on the decision preference of stakeholders in the subsequent model research.Finally,based on the above research results,the research mechanism of system capacity allocation optimization and decisionmaking model composed of system layout regional suitability evaluation model,system capacity allocation optimization model and system performance analysis and decisionmaking optimization model is designed.(3)Driven by geographic information big data,the regional suitability evaluation model of system layout is constructed to respond to the policy guidance contents corresponding to integrated energy projects such as strict protection of ecological environment,overall development of system security and priority development of conditional areas identified and explained in the mechanism.Firstly,based on the requirements and principles of the planning and layout of such system projects in the mechanism research,the regional suitability analysis element set of layout is identified from the aspects of natural resources,ecological environment,road traffic,safety and risk.Secondly.based on GIS technology and the BWM method,the regional suitability evaluation model of system layout is constructed,and the specific operation steps and instructions of the model are given.Further,taking Qinghai and Gansu as the empirical research areas and the corresponding geographic information big data of the region as the input of the model,the regional suitability evaluation of multi spatial scale layout from large to small is carried out to verify the model.The results show that:The layout suitability of northern,southern and western Gansu Province is high;Most areas of Qinghai Province except the East have good layout suitability.Finally,according to the simulation results of further reducing the spatial scale,an industrial park in Aksai Kazak Autonomous County,Gansu Province is selected as the layout area of the system project.Thus,it provides a practical basis for the source of key resource information such as solar energy,wind energy and temperature in the subsequent system capacity allocation optimization modeling and the planning characteristics of the project layout.(4)Considering the uncertainty of wind turbine-photovoltaic output and other factors,the system capacity allocation optimization model is constructed.Firstly,the uncertainty faced by the system in capacity allocation planning is analyzed;Based on Gaussian kernel density estimation,inverse transformation and clustering algorithm,a probabilistic scene generation model is constructed to deal with the uncertainty of wind and solar output(volatility,intermittence)and the random uncertainty caused by the system providing electric vehicle charging service.Secondly,the system capacity allocation optimization model is constructed from four aspects:optimization objectives,optimization strategies,basic constraints and solution methods.Finally,a variety of realistic configuration scenarios that the system capacity configuration planning may face are set up,and capacity configuration optimization is carried out to verify the model.The results show that the system benefits from the synergy of renewable energy power generation and hydrogen energy storage,and the environmental benefits are significant.It is economically feasible to provide charging services for electric vehicles,with significant environmental benefits,which can significantly reduce their indirect carbon emissions,and provide ideas for collaborative carbon reduction in the field of energy and transportation.(5)A hybrid fuzzy decision model of the system scheme considering interest preference is constructed.Firstly,the system performance analysis index system is constructed from five aspects:energy,environment,economy,technology and social performance.Secondly,the uncertainty characteristics and differences of decision evaluation information are analyzed.Based on fuzzy theory and related tools,the uncertainty representation processing methods for quantitative and qualitative decision information are given respectively.Further,based on the above research results,combined with the improved TODIM method,DEMATEL method and entropy method,a hybrid fuzzy decision model of system scheme considering interest preference is constructed.Finally,for the system schemes obtained by the capacity allocation optimization model,a case study is carried out to verify the model,and the ranking results of the system scheme are given.In particular,double sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis prove the stability and reliability of the model.The results of scenario analysis considering interest preference show that the decision-making model designed in this study can well consider decision-making preference,and this consideration is significantly necessary.Through combing the core research work of this paper and expounding the key research results,the main innovations of this paper can be condensed into the proposed research mechanism and the three core models under its guidance:That is,the capacity allocation optimization and decision-making mechanism of wind-photovoltaic-hydrogen integrated energy system based on life cycle carbon emission under the guidance of policy are designed and analyzed;the suitability evaluation model of system layout region driven by geographic information big data is constructed;the system capacity allocation optimization model considering uncertainty is constructed;the system performance analysis and hybrid fuzzy decision optimization model considering interest preference is constructed.The design idea of the research mechanism,the construction framework of the model and the practical perspective of analysis and discussion can provide reference for relevant scholars and investment decision-makers in this field.