Research On The Effectiveness Of Passenger Car Incremental Regulation Policy Based On Consumption Structure And Spatial Difference

Nowadays,the consumption level of our country’s residents is developing rapidly,and the purchase volume of large-scale durable goods such as cars is also rising.As the number of cars in cities continues to increase,problems such as traffic congestion,long commuting times,and large vehicle exhaust emissions have emerged one after another.Some local governments have issued relevant system documents on the incremental control of cars,and their objectives are mainly to control air pollution and traffic congestion.At present,eight cities,including Shanghai,Beijing,and Guangzhou,have implemented car purchase restriction policy,stipulating that the personal usage increase index for cars can be obtained through lottery or bidding;hundreds of cities have adopted odd or even number(the last figure)limit or foreign vehicle traffic restriction policy on designated road sections during peak hours on weekdays.The car purchase restriction policy and the car usage restriction policy are a scientific,effective,stable and predictable vehicle market regulation system that closely follows our country’s national conditions,supports the system,and can alleviate urban traffic pressure and solve the problem of traffic congestion.As a special market regulation policy under China’s national conditions,it is a typical representative of administrative entities in solving urban problems and performing service functions.At the same time,it has revealed to academia how administrative entities balance urban governance and civil rights,legal governance ideas and consumer market reality problems and many other difficult problems that are difficult to circumvent have aroused widespread concern in academia and industry.Most scholars have conducted research from the perspective of policy legitimacy,boundary definition and evaluation mechanism,and some scholars have conducted indepth exploration from the perspective of fairness,efficiency or social welfare.However,due to the limitations of methods and the availability of the second-hand data,there is currently a lack of research on the impact of government control policies on the demand side,and the impact of car incremental control policies on consumption structure and behavioral responses lacks detailed and systematic exploration.This is not conducive to the public sector’s more detailed evaluation of policy effects,and it is also one of the important reasons why our country’s car incremental control policy is frequently discussed and debated by consumers in the practice of promulgating the car incremental control policy.Therefore,research on the car incremental control policy and the effect of the debate also needs to provide empirical evidence support from the micro level.First of all,this research has carried out a theoretical combing of the internal mechanism of the influence of government regulation policies on consumption structure and consumption behavior.Starting from the policy content and policy attributes of government regulation and control policies,it is discussed that this restrictive market regulation policy will induce consumers’ perception of uncertainty,short-term deprivation of control,feelings of scarcity,and lack of power when making consumer decisions.In-depth interpretation of the car purchase restriction policy,including the impact caused by the need to purchase at a higher price or the excessive lottery pool,the above psychological mechanism will also strongly affect the consumer’s decision-making.According to the explanation of the uncertainty management theory and the uncertainty identification model,under the perception of uncertainty and lack of control,consumers will be biased towards selfidentification or social identification behavior,and then there will be a demand preference for status-based products.And a lack of power,under this circumstance,it will also lead to an increase in preference for status-based products,because status is a manifestation of regaining power.The shortage of supply will cause consumers to feel scarcity.Consumers usually think that scarce products are of high value and are more eager to obtain the products.As a result,the demand for cars in the surrounding non-restricted purchase policies cities has increased.This study believes that this is a spillover effects triggered by the restriction policies.Scarce products that generate high-value perceptions may trigger product preferences in two directions.From an economic point of view,the purchase restriction policy increases the cost(price or time)of car purchase.Rational consumers should reduce their car purchase budget and prefer practicality or useful product.From a psychological point of view,the car purchase restriction policy has invisibly given value to the license plate,and some consumers will prefer to match the value of the license plate and the car,and thus prefer symbolic products,such as status-based products.This study verifies the psychological effects of scarcity through second-hand data and defines this status-based product preference triggered by scarcity as the scarcity effect triggered by the car incremental control policy.This research adopts an empirical analysis model from total to case.In the overall part,this article uses the Regression Discontinuity Design method to evaluate the effectiveness of the car purchase restrictions in many cities across the country,including changes in sales volume and market fluctuations.In the case part,this article selects Shenzhen City without any advance announcement.the purchase restriction policy implemented by the FA is a quasi-natural experiment,using the monthly number of car licenses in some prefecture-level cities across the country and the panel data of TV advertisements,and adopting a Synthetic Control Method to expand the consumption structure of restricted cities and the market fluctuations in surrounding non-restricted cities as a multi-dimensional analysis.And then,combined with the strict usage restrictions policy,the effectiveness of the combined-policies is analyzed.Finally,this article also quantitatively expands the research conclusions of this article from the perspective of changes in government revenue and air quality.This study found that the car purchase restriction policy has achieved significant results in Beijing and Shenzhen.The monthly average number of car licenses has dropped significantly.Although there have been small fluctuations in the first quarter after the purchase restriction,it is very quickly stabilized.However,the passenger car purchase restriction policy has not effectively controlled the rapid increase in the number of cars in the country.The conclusion of the case study explains this.In the case study,it is found that the purchase restriction policy has reduced the average monthly sales of cars in Shenzhen by about 20,000,a decrease of 67%.Through further decomposition of this effect,it is found that the restricted purchase policy mainly affects cars,Chinese brand cars and small-displacement cars.Although the purchase restriction policy has eased road congestion,it has impacted national brands and increased consumers’ pursuit of status-oriented car models.This study defines it as a Scarcity Effect.At the same time,the monthly sales of vehicles in other non-restricted cities in Guangdong Province have increased significantly,even offsetting the policy’s restraining effect in Shenzhen.Therefore,the emergence of this Spillover Effect has made it impossible to effectively control the increase in the number of vehicles in the country.The car usage restriction policy is also a regulatory policy under the public authority of the government,which can directly affect some consumers who try to register licenses in non-restricted cities and use them in restricted cities.Therefore,this will alleviate the overflow caused by the purchase restriction policy.At the same time,this study also found that the restriction policy will alleviate the Scarcity Effect brought about by the purchase restriction policy,and even produce the opposite result of the Scarcity Effect.This study established a simple theoretical model to compare the two situations where the government considers only consumer surplus and consumer surplus and fiscal revenue at the same time,and then concludes that the government simultaneously implements purchase restrictions and usage restrictions can achieve greater consumers surplus.In the conclusion part,this study quantified the changes in the fiscal revenues of the central and local governments.The purchase restriction policy can bring about 170 million tax increases to the central government,and about 1.5556 million yuan in vehicle and ship tax increases in Shenzhen.From the air quality data point of view,it is difficult to directly obtain the effect of the regulation policy on air quality improvement.In this study,for the first time,market regulation policies with obvious tendencies are incorporated into the stimulus conditions of uncertainty management theory and related theories,and the external factors that stimulate individual sense of uncertainty and out-of-control have been expanded at the policy level.This research is the first attempt to introduce micro-consumer behavior theory into public policy evaluation research,and for the first time to systematically analyze the impact of passenger car incremental control policies on consumer behavior.This not only provides a new perspective for policy evaluation and analysis,but also promotes the intersection of policy research in public policy and consumer behavior.This research has made contributions.This research innovatively defines the Scarcity Effect and Spillover Effect caused by regulatory policies.These two effects are respectively aimed at the internal and external targets of the policy implementation,explaining the effects of the regulatory policies in an all-round way,and building a complete framework for the effects of the regulatory policies.The automobile industry is a pillar industry of the country,and the strategy of a strong automobile nation is an important support for a strong manufacturing country.The guidance of industrial policy should create an open and competitive environment for the car industry.The research conclusions of this article are very practical for government policy formulation and enterprise development,meaning and guiding value.Compulsory regulation and control policies are not the only way.This study proposes that the “one city,one policy” approach should be adopted to increase incentives for energy-saving and emission-reducing environmentally friendly vehicles,and to strengthen new energy vehicles and smart connected rides.Subsidies and support for car use and support Chinese brands in emerging areas to form first-mover advantages and leading positions.Government departments can also improve the comfort and convenience of public transportation,also create shared rides with carpooling platforms through measures such as micro-renovation,adding fast bus lanes and connecting the subway to the last mile of the community through subway connection lines.And many ways of travel should be taken to reduce the use of private cars.Facing the demand for upgrading the consumption of cars in cities with limited purchases,Chinese brand manufacturers should seize the opportunity of overtaking at the corner of “intelligent network connection”.Users’ perceived value of Chinese brands,thereby enhancing the competitiveness of Chinses brands.Chinese brands should also step on the pace of SUV upgrades,create second-and third-generation competitive products,and seize the trend of consumption upgrades to meet consumer demand for medium-to-large or mid-to-high-end SUVs.