Quantitative Prediction Of Indirect Economic Benefits Of Railway Construction Projects

The construction of a powerful transportation country is of great significance in the development of the country in the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics,and the first and high-quality development of railway is an important part of the strategy of a powerful transportation country.Railway construction is characterized by obvious externalities,long construction period,huge investment and long income time.Railway construction that is too advanced or lagging behind can not effectively promote the development of the national economy.In order to objectively evaluate the value of the economic benefits of railway transportation and play its important role in the development of the national economy,based on the analysis of the economic benefits of railway construction projects at home and abroad,this paper comprehensively applies the theory of the relationship between transportation and economic development,comprehensive transportation theory,transportation theory and machine learning technology,from the perspective of transportation mileage The quantitative prediction model of indirect economic benefits of railway construction projects is studied from the perspective of passenger and freight transport indicators and the evolution law of national economic data.The main research contents are as follows:(1)The Granger causality test model of railway construction projects and gross domestic product(GDP)is established.Taking the national railway construction projects and GDP data as the case set,the relationship between railway construction projects and national economy is studied.The results show that the railway passenger transport and GDP are mutually causal,and the railway freight transport and GDP have significant phased characteristics,which provides a theoretical basis for the modeling of the following chapters at the national level.(2)The fuzzy correlation model between railway construction projects and GDP is established,and the relationship between railway construction projects and GDP in eastern,central and western China is studied.The results show that the correlation between railway construction project indicators and GDP at different stages in China’s eastern,central and western regions is different,but the overall correlation is strong.The average correlation between the indicators of railway construction projects in the eastern,central and western regions over the years and GDP is 0.68,0.72 and 0.69 respectively,It shows that the economic development of the eastern,central and western regions over the years has a high degree of correlation with the development of railway construction projects,which provides a theoretical basis for the modeling of subsequent chapters from the regional level.(3)A convolutional neural network learning model(CNN)model for quantitative prediction of indirect economic benefits of railway construction projects from the perspective of integrated transportation system is established.Taking the national transportation modes and GDP data sets over the years as a case study,the error rate of CNN model is 10%.Nonlinear artificial neural networks(ANN)and multiple linear regression model(MLRA)are introduced as the comparison models.The error rate of ANN model is 12%,and that of MLRA model is 11%.The dimensionality reduction results of the ANN model verify that the railway construction project is the most sensitive to the impact of GDP,and the error rate of the model verifies that the error rate of the CNN model in the quantitative prediction of the economic benefits of the railway construction project is relatively low,and the calculation efficiency is high.The results show that the quantitative CNN prediction model of indirect economic benefits of railway construction projects based on the dimension of integrated transportation system is better(4)The quantitative prediction model of indirect economic benefits of railway construction projects based on Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)is established.Starting from the time lag characteristics of railway construction projects affecting the national economy,taking the national transportation modes and GDP data sets over the years as a case study,the LSTM model error rate is 15%.Bidirectional gated Long Short Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)model is introduced as the comparison model.Using the same case data set,the error rate of Bi-LSTM model is 20%.The results show that the LSTM prediction model for quantitative economic benefits of railway construction projects based on time series dimension is better.(5)The indirect economic benefit prediction method of railway construction project is constructed based on the combined deep learning model of CNN-LSTM(CNN-LSTM).The indirect economic benefits of railway construction projects are predicted from the two dimensions of the structure and time series of various transportation modes.The error of CNN-LSTM model is 7%,which is less than the results predicted by the two models alone.The results show that the indirect economic benefits of railway construction projects not only depend on the structure of various modes of transportation,but also depend on the time stage of the allocation of transportation resources.The combined model has the best performance in predicting the indirect economic benefits of railway construction projects.According to the experimental process and results of CNN,ANN,MLRA,LSTM,Bi-LSTM,CNN-LSTM models,the applicable scope of each model is analyzed.Based on the above research results and taking the quantitative prediction of the economic benefits of railway construction projects during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period as a case,this paper puts forward policy recommendations for the development of railway construction projects in China from the perspective of transportation power.When formulating railway network planning,we can refer to the quantitative prediction model proposed in this paper,and propose scientific and reasonable construction planning based on the evaluation of indirect economic benefits.In the investment and financing of railway construction projects,on the basis of scientific and reasonable quantification of the indirect economic benefits of railway construction projects,the amount of income of railway construction project participants can be sorted out quantitatively to provide cost compensation basis for the diversification of railway construction project funds.