| Exploring "compiling the Balance Sheet of Natural Resources" was an important decision made at the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of China,an important part of the 13 th Five-Year Plan,an important support for the government to make scientific decisions,and an important basis for the departure audit of leading cadres.China proposed "compiling the Balance Sheet of Natural Resources",aimed to establish a framework of Natural Resources Accounting System that can be compared with advanced countries in the world,linked up with national statistical accounting system and implemented step by step.Through natural resources accounting and the preparation of the Balance Sheet of Natural Resources,the resource and environmental values will be incorporated into the current economic accounting system to achieve the purpose of integrating Economy-Resource-Environment accounting.The pilot cities or regions in China were trying hard to compile the Balance Sheet of Natural Resources.However,due to lack of precedent and theoretical guidance,the research was still in its infancy.This study taked forest resources as the first step,put forward the compiling method for the Balance Sheet of Forest Resources,constructed Forest Assets Accounting System,this will plays an important pilot role in the subsequent preparation of a comprehensive and complete Balance Sheet of Natural Resources.The main research results were as follows:1.Constructed Forest Assets Accounting System by interdisciplinary and different scales.Hackled the experience in compilation of three major international economy 、 resources and environment accounting system(The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting(SEEA2012),Manual for Environmental and Economic Accounts for Forestry,The European Framework for Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting for Forests(IEEAF2002)),contrasted the links and differences of forest assets accounting contents and accounting methods between macroeconomic accounting system and microeconomic accounting system,put forward the idea of compiling the Balance Sheet of Forest Resources by combining the multi-disciplinary theory of natural science and social science,and accorded to the accounting body and the forest area,the scale division was carried out to construct the Forest Assets Accounting System of different scales.2.The accounting entity,compilation principle,account system and accounting method of the Balance Sheet of Forest Resources at small scale were put forward.Enterprises with forest area of no more than100,000 mu and below the county level were regarded as small-scale accounting entities.Guided and standardized the preparation with《Enterprise Accounting Standards – Agriculture》,《Asset Assessment Standards-Forest Assets》and《Forest Law of the People’s Republic of China 》.Set up eight sub-accounts.Adopted fair value measurement method to calculate the stock value of small-scale forest assets,used and improved traditional forest assets assessment techniques.Income Present Value Method was used for young forest and mid-and near-maturation forest,Inverse Calculation of Market Price was used for mature forest,and Present Value of Annuity Method was used for ecological public welfare forest.Among them,the ecological public welfare forest taked the annual ecological service value as the annuity,and the risk-free interest rate(one-year treasury bond interest rate)as the discount rate.The flow value separately counted the change of quantity and price,through the deposit and storage accounting identities,the initial and end values of forest assets were connected to form a complete forest economic cycle model.3.The accounting entity,compilation principle,account system and accounting method of the Balance Sheet of Forest Resources at large scale were put forward.Enterprises with forest area of more than100,000 mu(including 100,000 mu)and the administrative units at or above the county level were regarded as large-scale accounting entities.Guided and standardized the preparation with SNA and SEEA.The setting of account system was consistent with the small scale,which was divided into eight sub-accounts,but the subjects has changed a little.The method of combination of single assessment and batch assessment was adopted to calculate the stock value of large-scale forest assets,batch evaluation was the main method for tree species with large trading volume in forest right market.Taked the transaction data of the forest rights market in the south as an example,compared two batch evaluation methods including the traditional statistical modeling and machine learning,the machine learning selected Random Forest,BP Neural Network and SVM,and adopted ten-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning.The research results showed that the prediction error of SVM was largest,R~2=76.4%.The prediction errors of Multiple Linear Regression,Bayesian Regularized Neural Network and Random Forest were small,R~2>90%.Multiple Linear Regression showed better adaptability in terms of model error,model stability and interpretability,so it was the main method for large-scale forest batch assessment at present.4.Empirical research at different scales.According to the data of forest subcompartments covering 17386 mu in Huainan Township,Qingshui She Nationality Township,Yongan City to prepare the forest balance sheet at small scale.The results showed that the initial value of forest assets was 62.30 million yuan,and the final value was 69.47 million yuan,the natural growth increased the value by 2.42 million yuan,the harvesting reduced the value by 0.52 million yuan,and the price fluctuation reduced the value by 5.27 million yuan.The discount rate increased by one percentage point,and the value of public welfare biological assets decreased by 3.49 million yuan.According to the forest survey data of 3.58 million mu in Yongan City,the forest balance sheet at county was compiled.The results showed that the initial value was 9.66 billion yuan,and the final value was 7.26 billion yuan,the price fluctuation during the period leaded to a decrease of 2.42 billion yuan,the reduction in the final value was mainly due to the change of external market conditions.According to the decoupling theory,EKC theory and factor decomposition theory,this paper made a comprehensive and dynamic evaluation of the coordinated development of economy 、resources and environment in Fujian Province in the past 15 years,and compiled the forest balance sheet at province.The results showed that the sustainable relationship between economy,resources and environment in Fujian has not been completely realized,but developed in the direction of strong decoupling.The forest value in Fujian was 257.68 billion yuan in2008,424.02 billion yuan in 2013,increased by 166.34 billion yuan.5.Based on forest assets accounting,the concept and compilation method of " Forest Asset Price Index " and "Forest Natural Capital Index" were put forward.The price of forest assets is the key index for the transformation of the physical quantity of forest assets into the value quantity."Forest Asset Price Index" can reflect the changing trend and degree of the price of forest assets.The big data of forest right market transaction was obtained by focusing on the crawler technology,and the " Forest Asset Price Index " was compiled according to the Feature Price Model with time dummy element and the Chain Index Method."Forest Natural Capital Index" is an important index for comprehensive evaluation of forest quantity and quality in Forest Assets Accounting System,it can reflects the change degree and driving factors of forest capital.Taked the transaction data of China’s southern forest rights market from 2007 to2016 as an example,the forest year-on-year price index and the fixed price index were compiled.In 2015 and 2010,the year-on-year price of forest assets changed greatly,and the price index was 74.95% in 2015,180.01% in 2010,the fixed price index was 197% in 2016,indicated that the price of forest assets in 2016 increased by 97% compared with 2007.Taked the data of United Nations Forest Survey as an example,the Forest Natural Capital Index was compiled and the results showed that the five countries with the highest Forest Natural Capital Index in Asia in 2015 were Uzbekistan,Korea,Lebanon,China,and Turkey.The Forest Natural Capital Index of China was 140.62% in 2015,it indicated that compared with 1990,China’s forest natural capital increased by 40.62% in the past25 years.The forest quantity index was 132.57% and the forest quality index was 106.06%,it indicated that the forest natural capital of China before 2015 was mainly driven by quantity.6.The structure of Forest Account Intelligent System was proposed,the preparation process and the division of roles of each department were clearly defined,the data contents of the accounting entities at all levels were standardized,and the account filling interface and content were preliminarily designed.Through the standardized and automated system of compilation,it is conducive to the promotion of the follow-up of the preparation of Natural Resources Balance Sheets nationwide. |
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