| Announcing to the world at the 75 th session of the United Nations General Assembly on September 22,2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping announced China’s carbon peak target and carbon neutral vision,aiming to achieve a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030,as well as achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.A growing number of countries internationally are proposing a pathway to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21 st century.Achieving the goal of carbon neutrality is mainly based on two aspects: reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon sinks.The existing literature indicates that: on one hand,economic growth may increase the demand for forest resources in the production process,resulting in more deforestation;on the other hand,rising income levels are likely to increase the demand for a higher quality ecological environment for the population,thereby promoting forest conservation.There is,however,little research on the impacts of forest expansion on economic development and economic transformation.Within the context of carbon neutrality,this study examines the economic and environmental effects of forest expansion,within the context of a quasi-natural experiment conducted within the largest ecological project in the world,the Sloping Land Conservation Program.The study focuses on the impact of forest expansion on transformation of rural labor markets and structural transformation in rural economies.The Sloping Land Conservation Program is a measure undertaken by the central government to regulate the environmental situation,and the most immediate trigger of this was the summer of 1998 floods that affected the Yangtze River basin,the Neng River basin,and the Songhua River basin.In 1999,a pilot project in Gansu,Shaanxi and Sichuan provinces led to a full roll-out in 25 provinces in 2002,leading to the suspension of the following plan in 2007.From 1999 to 2010,the project converted7,995,200 hectares of arable land into forestland,which is the largest ecological project in the world.After a review of the existing literature in Chapter 2 and an introduction of the policy background of the fallow forest restoration project in Chapter 3,this paper starts the empirical analysis: Chapter 4 is the impact of the fallow forest restoration project on forest expansion and the estimation of the forest carbon sink generated by it.This chapter first estimates the causal impact of the fallow forestry project on forest expansion.Regarding the impact of the fallow forestry project on land use category conversion,this chapter uses satellite remote sensing data such as land use data and slope data,and makes use of the fact that there is a certain slope threshold for the impact of the fallow forestry project on land category conversion,i.e.,the proportion of fallow forestry will jump significantly when the slope of agricultural land exceeds 10 degrees.This chapter uses various empirical models such as parametric form event study method,nonparametric form event study method and double difference model to ensure the robustness of the regression results.The event study method model found that the fallowing project led to a 45.2% increase in the proportion of cropland converted to forest land from 1995 to 2010.Based on this estimation result,this chapter then calculates the forest carbon sink generated by the Sloping Land Conservation Program and conducts a cost-benefit analysis.The average annual carbon sink generated by the fallow forest project is 170 million tons,accounting for about 4.2% of the annual forest carbon sink in China.In chapter 5,we examine the impact of forest expansion on rural labor supply by using a unique natural experiment,the Sloping Land Conservation Program.Firstly,this chapter examines the theoretical framework of the impact of the fallowing to forest project on rural labor supply from two perspectives: the release of surplus labor from the fallowing of sloped land,and the impact of cash transfer payments on rural labor supply.As part of the empirical study,this chapter uses census data and satellite remote sensing data to use a slope threshold caused by the following to forestry project,i.e.,rural labor supply will increase when the slope of farmland exceeds 10 degrees.The regression analysis of the event study method model in parametric and non-parametric forms showed that the program increased the probability of rural young people participating in labor supply by 4.28 percentage points in 2010.The program has heterogeneous effects on labor supply behavior at the rural level.The Sloping Land Conservation Program has a negative impact on the rural labor force,particularly on young women,while older workers and males are not significantly affected.The program also significantly increased the working hours of rural young female labor participants.Finally,this chapter also analyzes the impact of the Sloping Land Conservation Program on the industry distribution of the labor force.The program caused young women to shift from agricultural to non-agricultural industries.The program has contributed to the transformation of the rural labor market.Chapter 6 is to study the impact of the Sloping Land Conservation Program on the structural transformation of the rural economy,and to give micro evidence of the structural transformation of the rural economy by the household sector and the enterprise sector.The first one is based on rural household survey data to examine the impact of the fallback forestry project on the income,consumption and non-farm production activities of the household sector in rural areas;the second one is based on economic census data to examine the impact of the fallback forestry project on the development of manufacturing enterprises in rural areas.In estimating the impact of the Sloping Land Conservation Program on rural economic development and economic structural transformation,its estimated results may be confounded by unobservable factors in the same period,such as the local historical economic structure or culture that makes rural households more engaged in commercial activities.This chapter will address this endogeneity issue by drawing on the core mandate of the fallowing of sloping land mainly by the program.In the sample used in this chapter,areas are more affected by reforestation projects when the average slope of the farmland exceeds ten degrees.Based on this characteristic,this chapter identifies the impact of the Sloping Land Conservation Program on rural economic development and rural economic transformation from the perspective of both the household sector and the enterprise sector.The empirical results for the household sector show that the program induced rural households to switch to non-farm industries,while household food production was not affected.In addition,households’ agricultural production activities were not affected by the program,and the reforestation project had no significant impact on households’ food production and per capita food production.The empirical results for the enterprise sector suggest that the program promotes the development of manufacturing industries in rural areas.Specifically,the program significantly increased the number of employees,capital and output of rural manufacturing enterprises,and also significantly increased the number of manufacturing enterprises in rural areas.Summarizing the empirical results for the household and firm sectors,the Sloping Land Conservation Program promotes the transformation of the local economic structure in rural areas to non-agricultural industries.Chapter 7 summarizes the full text and provides corresponding policy recommendations.Essentially,this study shows that,in terms of carbon neutrality,the Sloping Land Conservation Program,as an ecological project aimed at improving soil erosion and ecological environment,has resulted in a large expansion of forest area and thus a large amount of forest carbon sink.On the other hand,it has improved labor supply in rural areas and promoted economic transformation.As a result,the Sloping Land Conservation Program result in both environmental and economic results,and provide valuable experience to developing nations seeking both carbon neutrality and sustainable economic development. |
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