Research On The Influence Of Bilateral Political Relations On The Import Of China’s Bulk Commodity

Due to the nature of bulk commodities as inputs,the shortage of supply and substandard quality will affect the production efficiency of enterprises,moreover,it will affect the supply efficiency of the entire market like a domino effect,and even lead to turbulence in the financial market,affecting the true economy.It is harmful to the development of the true economy and the stable development of the national economy.Therefore,the central government has been paying attention to the continuous supply of bulk commodities.The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict hampered global bulk commodities’ supply and caused global inflation,making more and more countries realize the importance of peaceful and the significant impact of bilateral political relations on bulk commodities.So,can bilateral political relations really promote continued imports of bulk commodities for China? Can it promote the improvement of the impirts’ quality of bulk commodities? Bilateral political relations may fluctuate frequently,or they may develop continuously and steadily.Which model can promote the high-quality and stable supply of bulk commodities?With the above problems,we firstly start with the bilateral political relations as an institution,sorts out the relevant theories about the impact of this special system on trade.And then derive the theoretical basis of this thesis is that the bilateral political relationship directly promotes China’s bulk commodities by reducing the cost and uncertainty of trade.The bilateral political relationship can reduce the cost and uncertainty of investment,promote foreign direct investment,and then affect the channel of China’s commodity import trade.Secondly,we sort out China’s bulk commodities according to the “China Commodity Market Yearbook” and “China’s Strategic Commodities Development Report”,and then compare the “People’s Republic of China Customs Import Tariff’to form a list of bulk commodities.And then,based on customs import and export database and the industrial enterprise database from 2000 to 2014,we use the Nested Logit model proposed by Khandelwal(2010)to estimate the hs6-digit imported products’ quality.Moreover,we analyze the import status of China’s bulk commodities,from the perspectives of import scale,quality and import sustainability.Thirdly,we constructe a gravity model using the ideal point difference of the United Nations voting database from 2000 to 2014 to examine the impact of bilateral political relations on the scale of commodity imports.The study finds that the improvement of China’s bilateral political relations with other countries has no significant impact on the intensive margin of China’s bulk commodities’ imports,and the impacts on the expansion margin of bulk commodities’ imports is negative.Further analysis finds that the continued positive and stable partnership can significantly promotes the increase in the variety of China’s bulk commodities’ imports.When China imports bulk commodities from developed countries,the growth of the expansion margin is more hindered.On the one hand,it may be because the developed countries have high technology level and export more finished products of bulk commodities;On the other hand,there may also be the phenomenon of developed countries’ containment of China’s development.Fourthly,we use 2000-2014 United Nations voting database from 2000-2014,construct a gravity model to examine the impact of bilateral political relations on the quality of commodity imports.The results show that changes in China’s bilateral political relations with other countries did not improve the quality of China’s imported commodities.Compared with non-bulk commodities,the improvement of bilateral political relations only makes the quality of China’s imported bulk commodities less severe,and has a negative impact on the quality of imports of all products.The heterogeneity analysis’ s results show that when China’imports products from developed countries,the improvement of bilateral political relations has a significantly stronger impact on the quality of imports of strategic commodities than from developing countries,and it is a positive promotion.The technological advantages of developed countries are obvious.Compared to countries other than countries along the “Belt and Road”,the quality of China’s imports of non-bulk commodities from “Belt and Road” countries is positively affected by bilateral political relations.But the bilateral political relations have negative impact on the quality of commodity imports.Moreover,the improvement of bilateral political relationship between China and other countries has a negative spatial spillover effect on the import quality of bulk commodities.However,this negative effect will be changed as China establishes good bilateral political relations with the potential importing country.Furthermore,we investigate the impact of bilateral political relations on the duration of China’s import of bulk commodities.We find that the improvement of bilateral political relations not extends the import duration of commodities in China.Further research results show that products of high technical complexity are more sensitive to improvements in political relations.China needs to promote and rationally adjust the diplomatic partnership strategy actively in order to ensure the stability of bulk commodities’ import which are high technology ones,so as to promote China high-quality economic development.Aiming at the problems studied in this thesis,we have made some innovations in the research perspective,theoretical analysis and empirical method application.From the research perspective,we are the first to analyze based on the attribute differences between non-commodities and bulk commodities,and for the first to systematically analyze the scale,quality and continuity of commodity imports from a political perspective.It includes not only the traditional bilateral political perspective,but also the political cyberspace perspective in this thesis.From the perspective of political science,we deduce theoretical analysis is to deduce the influence mechanism of bilateral political relationship as a special system on import trade step by step from the related theories.From the empirical method,we are the first to compare and analyze the United Nations voting data and diplomatic partnership data,and use the method of spatial measurement to construct spatial weights to construct and calculate the spatial spillover of bilateral political relations of various sovereign states.Reasonable influence paths,comprehensive perspectives and methods lay a solid foundation for clarifying the influence of bilateral political relations on China’s bulk commodity imports.