Research On Low Fertility Rate And Its Influencing Factors In China

According to the National Bureau of Statistics,the number of new births in 2022 was9.56 million,falling below 10 million for the first time since 1950,and the birth rate was6.77 per thousand,falling below 10 per thousand for three consecutive years.The declining fertility rate has accelerated the changes of the size and structure of Chinese population.Most notably,the natural population growth rate in 2022 was-0.6 per thousand,the first negative population growth since 1960.Moreover,the world population development pattern will be affected by the arrival of China’s population turning point.According to UN data,India’s estimated population of 1.412 billion in 2022 has already exceededs China’s reported population of 1.411 billion in the same period.This objective trend,coupled with China’s continuous adjustment of its childbirth policy since 2013 without any successful outcomes,has triggered public concern and reflection on low fertility.To some extent,the fear for low fertility is widespread in the theoretical circle and the general public.The report to the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed "improving the population development strategy,establishing a policy system to boost birth rates,and bringing down the costs of pregnancy and childbirth,child rearing,and schooling",which mapped out a blueprint and method for solving the problem of low fertility while also indicating the direction for our further exploration into the issue.Under the national toplevel design,translating policy benefits into practical fertility behaviors to promote the moderate recovery of fertility rate is China’s population policy goal,which concerns the overall high-quality development of the country.Ultimately,achieving this goal depends on the improvement of social environment for childbearing decision making and the enhancement of the willingness of women of childbearing age to have babies.In this context,it is necessary to systematically review and summarize the factors that contribute to the low fertility,and learn from the historical experience of developed countries to effectively deal with the factors hindering fertility,thus facilitating the moderate recovery of fertility rate.This paper explores the characteristics,influencing factors and countermeasures for low fertility rate in China,with focus on the following areas:First,analysis of the characteristics and potential risks of low fertility in China.Through the review of fertility transition in China,this paper analyzes the main characteristics of population and social development in light of low fertility,and on this basis probes into the potential risks that the persistent low fertility pose to the economy and society.Studies show that the drop in the fertility rate in China is a gradual process that extends from urban to rural areas and from developed to less developed areas.Compared with the low fertility in developed countries,China’s low fertility is significantly different in terms of timing,development speed,historical background,and other aspects.Moreover,persistent low fertility rate leads to changes in China’s population and family structure,which carries a series of potential risks.Second,establishment of a macro-analysis framework for factors that affect fertility rate.A systematic analysis method is adopted to provide a logically consistent explanation of demographic transition worldwide by observing the characteristics of changes in the fertility rate and the dimensions of factors affecting fertility rate throughout the stages of world population development.Research finds that fertility transition is the crux of demographic transition and it is a continuous process.The factors affecting fertility rate are multifarious and complex.They are everchanging as a result of varying natural conditions and social development approaches,especially changes in production mode and life style and related social institutions,which jointly contribute to fertility transition.Throughout the development of demographic economics in the world,the actual fertility rate is the result of the selection and balance of natural fertility and intended fertility under the regulation of effective fertility control,and it is also affected by the intervention mechanism based on the population carrying capacity constraints.Third,theoretical analysis of the causes and drivers of China’s low fertility rate.By applying this consistent theoretical framework to the analysis of China’s low fertility rate,it is found that: a decline in natural fertility due to factors such as postponed childbearing,environmental pollution,and the unhealthy life style;the enhancement of effective fertility control due to factors such as women’s reproductive autonomy;the reduction of psychological and economic costs of contraception,the development and popularization of modern contraceptive technology;a decline in fertility intention due to factors such as the underestimation of fertility utility,the high cost of childbearing and child rearing,the insufficient support of childbearing policy,the change in fertility culture,and misleading information on the Internet;inadequate and unbalanced economic development due to factors such as external macro environment and internal growth pressure;and further decline in fertility rate due to the intervention mechanism based on the population carrying capacity constraints.Fourth,empirical analysis of the factors that affect the fertility intention of Chinese people of childbearing age.Based on the above theoretical analysis,by integrating the theories related to new family economics and social psychology,a theoretical model is constructed,with "perception of children’s value,(perceived)cost of childbearing and child rearing" as the direct influencing factors and "childbearing policy support,change in views on childbearing,misleading network information,economic risk perception" as the external explanatory variables.Based on the 977 valid questionnaires collected independently from Chinese people of childbearing age,the structural equation model for factors that affect the fertility intention of people of childbearing age was established to study the internal structural relationship between these factors,and the differences in factors influencing fertility intention between different groups were revealed.The results show that,among the direct factors affecting fertility intention,the perceived value of children has a significant positive correlation with fertility intention,while the cost of childbearing has a significant negative correlation with fertility intention.Childbearing policy support has a significant positive correlation with the perceived value of children and a negative correlation with the cost of childbearing;the change in views on childbearing has a significant negative correlation with the perceived value of children and a positive correlation with the cost of childbearing.Misleading information on the Internet has a significant negative correlation with the perceived value of children and a positive correlation with the cost of childbearing.The results of the significance test demonstrated that the perception of economic risk affects the perception of children’s value,albeit not significantly;the perceived economic risk has a positive correlation with the cost of childbearing and child rearing.The results of multi-group analysis show that gender,age,income,and other moderating variables have varying effects under different hypotheses,but the overall results are consistent with the basic conclusions.There is a close correlation between the four exogenous latent variables,namely,childbearing policy support,change in views on childbearing,misleading information on the Internet,and the perception of economic risk,indicating that there may be an internal mechanism of mutual reinforcement of the influencing factors in the evolution of social and economic structure.Fifthly,Based on the changing process of fertility rate in OECD countries,this paper summarizes the structural causes and recovery mechanism of low fertility rate,and then analyzes the possibility of China’s fertility rate recovery.Based on the historical data of OECD countries,a panel econometric model was built to analyze the effects of economic uncertainty,bearing concept changes on fertility rate,and to verify the inverse J-shaped relationship between economic development and fertility rate.Based on the summary of foreign experience,this paper further analyzes the possibility and challenges that may exist in the improvement of China’s fertility rate.It is found that economic uncertainty has a significant negative impact on fertility rate,and the change of bearing concept plays a significant negative moderating role,which further inhibits the fertility level.In the advanced stage of economic development,the relationship between economic development and fertility rate changes from negative to positive,and the improvement of gender equality level,the strengthening of family policy support and the improvement of social income distribution all play a positive moderating role between the two factors.Based on the summary of international experience and China’s national conditions,it is not difficult to find that there are both positive and negative factors for the recovery of China’s fertility level in the future.The negative factors are mainly reflected in the increasing short-term economic volatility,the large income gap between residents,the increase of resident unemployment rate in recent years,the short-term impact and long-term impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic,and the convergence of urban and rural fertility concept.Positive factors include: high level of economic development and long-term improvement,improvement of income distribution under the vision of common prosperity,improvement of gender equality accompanied by the development of China’s social programs,and increasing support for the birth policy under the top-level design.Considering that most of these negative factors are short-term and reversible,while the positive factors are longterm and trend,it is not difficult to deduce theoretically that as long as the positive factors are fully utilized and measures are taken to alleviate the negative impact,China’s fertility level is highly likely to recover.Sixth,we put forward new thoughts and policy suggestions to deal with the problem of low fertility in China.First of all,from the perspective of theoretical logic and practical logic,we expounds that the key to deal with the problem of low fertility is to build a childbearing society and achieve a moderate fertility level.Then based on the connotation and development goals of the childbearing society,following the idea of eliminating or reducing all kinds of childbearing constraints and promoting the independent expression and realization of diversified fertility intentions,20 second-level indicators and 42 thirdlevel indicators were selected from five aspects: reproductive health protection,friendly social environment,moderate fertility burden,adequate and balanced development,and independent choice of childbearing,to build a birth-friendly society indicator system.With this system,the entropy method,analytic hierarchy process and other methods were then adopted to carry out an empirical evaluation and analysis of China and its 31 provinces and cities.The study found that: First,the development of a birth-friendly society in China from 2016 to 2020 presents a U-shaped trajectory.In recent years,there has been a marked advance in the degree of birth friendliness,owing chiefly to the development of a birthfriendly environment and the independent decision making on childbearing,while inadequate reproductive health protection and burdensome childbearing and child rearing have impeded the building of a birth-friendly society.Second,birth-friendly subsystems vary across provinces.Specifically,Anhui,Henan,and Sichuan provinces provide better reproductive health protection;Shanxi and Gansu provinces and Tibet have a better birthfriendly environment;Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Xinjiang see their people’s fertility burden as moderate compared to that of people from other provinces;Beijing,Shanghai,and Zhejiang province enjoy better,more balanced development.People of Xinjiang,Tianjin,and Jiangsu province have more freedom to independently make decisions on childbearing.Third,overall,Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the most birth-friendly provinces,while Heilongjiang and Shanghai are the least birth-friendly places.Fourth,the development of a birth-friendly society in the central,eastern,and western regions of China remains at a low level overall.In terms of the overall level of being birth friendly,there appears to be no distinct spatial distribution pattern,suggesting that the development of birth-friendly society across all regions of China is still in the nascent stage,and much work remains to be done.Finally,according to the current situation of the construction of China’s childbearing friendly society,this paper seeks to puts forward the construction path of childbearing friendly society and the corresponding policy recommendations:(1)strengthening the protection of natural fertility to unleash the fertility potential;(2)respecting and supporting the independent decision-making on childbearing by women of childbearing age;(3)increasing individuals’ and families’ willingness to have babies to achieve a moderate recovery of fertility rate;(4)ensuring more balanced and adequate development to boost people’s confidence in childbearing.