| Digital economy has arisen as a significant driver of global economic growth,where 5G technology is playing a pivotal role in shaping it.As a novel generation of information technology,5G serves as the fundamental infrastructure of the digital economy,driving industrial modernization and promoting high-quality growth.By 2023,China has achieved the fundamental construction of its 5G communication infrastructure.However,the efficiency of transitioning 5G technology into products remains a challenge.Compared to 4G,the industrial application of 5G lacks significance,and the diffusion of this technology lacks effectiveness and is not widely embraced in society.To tackle these issues,this article performs a thorough analysis of the current state of 5G technology diffusion,studying patterns in the development of communication technology.The primary objective is to elucidate the factors and mechanisms influencing 5G technology diffusion,offering valuable insights to hasten its rapid development in China’s industries and society.This article undertakes an evaluation of both domestic and international 5G technology development,harnessing the specific traits of the information technology industry to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of its evolution and dissemination.It pinpoints the scope and players involved in the spread of 5G technology,segmenting it into two distinct modes:diffusion within industry alliances and diffusion within social networks.Factors influencing the dissemination of 5G technology within industry alliances are analyzed using grounded theory methodology and expert interviews,revealing both internal and external elements that impact the diffusion process.A theoretical framework for 5G technology diffusion within industry alliances is established through the utilization of a questionnaire and structural equation modeling.In addition,system dynamics is employed for the simulation and analysis.The article also embarks on an in-depth examination of the process,characteristics,and structural aspects of 5G technology diffusion within social networks.It formulates a 5G technology diffusion model premised on complex networks and employs an intelligent integrated modeling simulation approach to scrutinize the impact of technological utility,promotion strategies,and opinion leaders on the diffusion process.The implications of differing variable environments on the trajectory of 5G technology diffusion and associated pathways are also examined.Finally,the article delivers an exhaustive depiction of the mechanisms behind China’s 5G technology development and diffusion,accompanied by pertinent policy suggestions to stimulate its widespread application.The key findings of the research can be summarized as follows:Firstly,the spread of 5G technology in China follows two distinctive patterns:an initial diffusion within industrial alliances,followed by a subsequent diffusion from these alliances into social networks.The technology typically permeates industry sectors before radiating out into broader society.Geographically,it first blankets the industrial base and then extends into society in step with technological maturation.This technology dissemination can be divided into two phases.The inaugural phase(2016-2025)zeroes in on diffusion within industries,exploring the application of 5G services across various sectors,establishing feasible paths,and amassing experience.The latter phase(2019-2035)primarily entails the distribution of goods and services,with consumers as the principal beneficiaries.These two phases of technology diffusion are interlinked and exert mutual influence.Secondly,concerning diffusion within industrial alliances and simulation analysis,external factors shaping the spread of 5G technology within enterprises encompass the current industry status,characteristics of the 5G industry,traits of 5G technology,innovative capabilities of 5G enterprises,and the overarching macro environment.System dynamics analysis unveils that elements such as capital,technology,and labor exert a significant influence on the diffusion of 5G technology.The production factors required for technology diffusion fluctuate across different timeframes,with a heightened demand for labor input during the initial and concluding stages,and a concentration on capital investment in the initial and intermediate stages.Technology is required to be steadily accumulated and harnessed during the middle and later stages.The collective influence of these factors fosters the ongoing diffusion and application of 5G technology.Thirdly,regarding diffusion within social networks and simulation analysis,promotional activities serve as the primary conduit for technology diffusion prior to 2022.Accompanied by the aggregation of foundational users,consumer awareness of 5G technology gradually expands,and the diffusion reaches an inflection point around 2025.Subsequently,5G technology proliferates swiftly within social circles as the scale of adoption escalates.The diffusion pace and reach of software-based product technology noticeably outstrip those of general technology and hardware technology.This article presents three primary innovations:Firstly,from a theoretical standpoint,it establishes a comprehensive model of technology diffusion pathways,pivoting on industrial alliances and social networks,with 5G technology as the focal point,and incorporating both enterprises and consumers as adopters.This broadens the theoretical exploration into the diffusion of generic digital technologies,using 5G as a representative.Secondly,with respect to content,the article formulates a system dynamics model rooted in the theoretical analysis of technology diffusion within industrial alliances.Through simulation and analysis,it unveils the idiosyncrasies of 5G technology diffusion and the cumulative impacts and trends under the sway of various factors.Lastly,in relation to methodology,the study integrates grounded theory and structural equation modeling from the field of sociology to undertake both qualitative and quantitative investigations into technology diffusion.It enhances the traditional threshold diffusion model by amalgamating it with the Bass model,thus yielding an innovative diffusion model for innovative products. |
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