| The current cooperation between China and ASEAN countries is an important window for building a new domestic and international dual cycle development pattern.There are still deviations in information transmission in bilateral cooperation,and consistent expectations for future development have not yet been formed,hindering the further development of bilateral relations.In this context,through research,it is hoped to strengthen the important role of the media industry in regional cooperation,mobilize various production factors to join in regional economic development,form a joint force,and promote the further deepening of China-ASEAN regional cooperation.Based on the idea of expectation theory,the study researches the contribution of the media industry in the China-ASEAN region by using empirical analysis,mathematical statistics,expert interviews,literature,case studies and other research methods,and mainly draws the following conclusionsFirst,through the development history of the regional media industry,we found that since the 1990 s,China and ASEAN have continued to deepen cooperation in various fields of the media industry,especially the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" signed and implemented by the two sides in 2020.(RCEP),the development of the media industry has ushered in new opportunities.From the perspective of output value,in recent years,the compound growth rate of the media industry in various countries in the region has generally been higher than the global growth rate of 4.225%.From the perspective of industrial structure,the media industry structure of most ASEAN countries is relatively simple,and traditional media is still the mainstay;However,various subdivisions of China’s media industry are in the form of a hundred flowers blooming.Facing the future,there are still many uncertainties in the development of the media industry in the region.Combined with the theory of expectations,we propose that the problems existing in the development of the media industry in the region are mainly: the uncertainty of market expectations and the mismatch of cultural expectations,the uncertainty of technical expectations and the uncertainty of policy expectations,etc.Second,through the analysis of the functions of the media industry in the region,we found that at the level of economic development,the media industry mainly plays the role of market regulation,technology promotion,labor force improvement and trade promotion in the region;at the level of social development In general,the media industry mainly plays the role of institutional evolution,environmental protection and regional agricultural development in the region.Third,an empirical study was conducted on the evaluation of the contribution of the media industry from two levels of economic development and social development.Through the research,it was found that:In the evaluation of the contribution of economic development,firstly,cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to prove that there is a positive causal relationship between the media industry and labor force and regional economic growth,that is,the development of the media industry and the increase of labor force can bring regional economic growth.Economic growth,and this contribution is continuous and stable;secondly,with the help of the idea of expectation theory,the modified Fidel utility model is used to establish a production utility model,and through the regression analysis of the panel data of the regional media industry from 2012 to 2020 It is found that the media industry has a significant spillover effect on regional economic growth,and every 1%increase in the output value of the media industry in the region can bring about a0.2% increase in the output value of the non-media industry;at the same time,the productivity of the media industry is 1.7 times that of the non-media industry;in addition,we also found that regional economic growth will promote the growth of employment in the opposite direction,while the growth of the output value of the media industry will reduce employment;the growth of the media industry and the growth of the regional regional economy will both promote capital accumulation,specifically,every increase in the output value of the media industry units,there will be 0.4 units forming a contribution to capital accumulation.In the evaluation of social development contribution,first,we use the AHPentropy weight method to evaluate the social contribution of the media industry to the region.Through expert interviews,an index system including 7 first-level indicators and 17 second-level indicators was established,and the weight of evaluation indicators and the corresponding judgment matrix were determined by using the analytic hierarchy process.According to the above research,an evaluation model of the contribution of the media industry to the regional society was established.After calculation,the contribution degree is 3.4839,indicating that the contribution of the media industry to the region is at a relatively high level;secondly,we further calculated the weight of each contribution index,through The calculation found that among the first-level indicators,market adjustment contribution,innovation contribution and human resource improvement contribution accounted for the highest proportion,which were 21.35%,19.68%and 17.66% respectively.Among the secondary indicators,emancipating ideas,promoting the regional flow of factors,and promoting information technology progress accounted for the highest proportions,accounting for 8.22%,7.06% and6.98% respectively.Fourth,combined with the case analysis,the measures to enhance the contribution of the media industry to China-ASEAN regional cooperation are proposed: transforming government functions,increasing institutional innovation,strengthening the role of the market,promoting rational allocation of resources,improving media technology,promoting internal industrial upgrading,Develop human capital,improve the quality of employees,strengthen cooperation outside the region,and build export-oriented competitiveness.Facing the future,China-ASEAN regional cooperation has entered the 3.0era.Through this study,it is hoped that the role of the media industry in regional cooperation can be strengthened,the function of the media industry in the region can be better played,and the theoretical reference for promoting the common development of the region can be provided. |
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