Research On The Trade Effect And Prospect Of The Agreement On Economic And Trade Cooperation Between China And The Eurasian Economic Union

In recent years,the trend of trade protectionism and counter globalization has risen,and New Coronavirus has been spreading all over the world,and the global economy has been hit hard.At the same time,the multilateral trade negotiations represented by WTO are very difficult.In order to meet the political interests and seek more trade and investment markets,all countries gradually turn to the regional trade agreements with the advantages of flexible decision-making and convenient coordination.With the new pattern of regional economic development,the form and content of trade agreements between countries are constantly deepening,and the differences between different free trade agreements are gradually increasing.Traditionally,the research on free trade area mainly regards all trade agreements as "homogeneous" trade agreements(or the same type of trade agreements as "homogeneous" trade agreements),Such an analysis method can only be used to analyze "whether the signing of trade agreements can promote bilateral trade flow",but can not effectively analyze the impact of the quality of trade agreements on the bilateral economy and trade.As a rising power and economic organization in regional and global affairs,the relationship between China and Eurasian Economic Union not only affects the development of regional economy,but also affects the development of Eurasian and global economy.China and the Eurasian Economic Union actively carry out the free trade area strategy.At the beginning of the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union in 2015,the two conveniences signed the joint statement of the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China and the Eurasian Economic Commission on launching the economic and trade partnership agreement between China and the Eurasian Economic Union,expressing their intention to promote the construction of the bilateral free trade area,The Ministry of Commerce of China and the Eurasian Economic Commission jointly signed the joint statement on officially launching the negotiations on the economic and trade cooperation partnership agreement between China and the Eurasian Economic Union.On May 17,2018,China and the Eurasian Economic Union signed the economic and trade cooperation agreement between China and the Eurasian Economic Union(hereinafter referred to as the agreement)《 The agreement is the first important institutional document between China and Eurasian Economic Union in the field of economy and trade,and also marks a new stage of economic and trade cooperation between China and Eurasian Economic Union and its member countries led by previous projects.However,the agreement does not deal with substantive issues such as tariff reduction.It is only a free trade agreement on "semi-finished products",indicating that the two sides still face many difficulties in establishing a highquality free trade agreement.Under the situation of continuous promotion of economic and trade cooperation between China and Eurasian Economic Union,this paper studies the foreign free trade strategy of China and Eurasian Economic Union,the competitiveness and complementarity of bilateral trade,the quality and trade effect of the agreement,the advantages and disadvantages of establishing a high-quality free trade agreement,and the prospects of the agreement,Undoubtedly,it has important practical and theoretical significance,and can also provide decision-making reference for the establishment of highquality free trade agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union.This paper takes the agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union and signed by both sides as the research object,takes international trade,regional economic integration and other related theories as the guidance,explores whether China and Eurasian Economic Union have the basis of establishing high-quality free trade agreement as the main line,and takes the trade effect of establishing high-quality free trade agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union as the core,This paper analyzes the complementarity,competitiveness and great development potential of the economic and trade relationship between China and Eurasian Economic Union from theoretical,practical and empirical perspectives,reveals the trade effects and possible obstacles of establishing high-quality free trade agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union,and puts forward some suggestions from seven aspects,such as flexible selection of free trade agreement framework.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows(1)Combing the theoretical basis of establishing high-quality free trade agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union to provide a theoretical basis for the analysis of the full text;The research shows that international trade,regional economic integration and other related theories are the theoretical basis for the analysis of the issues related to the free trade agreement between China and the Eurasian Economic Union.At the same time,the trade effects of the terms in the free trade agreement are different,most of them play a promoting role,but some of them have a restraining role.This paper combs the influence mechanism of free trade agreement on international trade from the clause level,which lays a theoretical foundation for the later empirical analysis of the trade effect of free trade agreement.(2)This paper analyzes the characteristics and respective strategic intentions of China and Eurasian Economic Union in promoting free trade area in recent years,and studies the realistic basis for China and Eurasian Economic Union to establish high-quality free trade agreement.The research shows that China and Eurasian Economic Union accelerate the construction of free trade area,and both sides hold a positive attitude towards the construction of free trade area.However,the free trade agreements signed by the Eurasian Economic Union are of low level,small scale and few contents,which are conservative in the actual foreign economic cooperation.(3)From the practical and empirical point of view,this paper reveals the reality that the complementarity of macroeconomic and trade relations between China and Eurasian Economic Union is greater than that of competition,and studies the economic basis of establishing high-quality free trade agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union.The trade between China and Eurasian Economic Union has made great progress.From 2000 to 2019,the bilateral trade volume has increased from US $9.857 billion to US $141.571 billion,with an average annual growth rate of 15.06%.From the perspective of trade complementarity index between China and Eurasian Economic Union and its member countries,which is the export of Eurasian Economic Union,the rising trend is obvious since2015,from 0.97 to 1.38,with an increase of 0.41 during the period.The trade exchanges between the two sides are increasing day by day,and the complementarity between the two sides is becoming stronger and stronger.From the perspective of trade competitiveness between China and Eurasian Economic Union Member States,according to the analysis of export similarity index,there is no strong competitiveness between China and Eurasian Economic Union Member States.In the past two decades,the average value of the similarity index between China and the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union is only31.23.(4)This paper uses breakpoint regression analysis to study the short-term trade effect of the agreement,and uses GTAP model to simulate and analyze the trade effect of establishing high-quality free trade agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union.From the trade effect of the agreement,the implementation of the agreement can promote the GDP growth of China and the Eurasian Economic Union,and the Union countries benefit significantly;The decline of technical barriers to trade and tariff barriers can promote the improvement of China’s economic welfare level,and the decline of tariff barriers has a more obvious effect on the improvement of economic welfare level,while the change of economic welfare in Eurasian Economic Union is not significant(5)Combined with the mature international free trade construction experience,this paper analyzes the trade potential between China and Eurasian Economic Union by using stochastic frontier gravity model,comprehensively analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of establishing high-quality free trade agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union,and analyzes its development prospect.On the whole,promoting the economic and trade cooperation between China and Eurasian Economic Union is an important strategy for the development of both sides.The signing of the agreement provides a policy basis for deepening the bilateral economic and trade cooperation.The establishment of a high-quality free trade agreement is an important direction for promoting the bilateral cooperation.At present,there are some favorable conditions to further improve the quality of FTA,but there are also many unfavorable factors.However,the overall adverse factors are more than the favorable factors,and the reasons for the adverse factors are difficult to be effectively solved in the short term,such as the differences in economic structure and economic volume between the two sides.Therefore,it is still difficult for China to establish a high-quality free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union in the short term.(6)To explore the promotion path of establishing high-quality free trade agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union《 Since the signing of the agreement,the focus of cooperation between China and the Eurasian Economic Union has gradually shifted from simply seeking consensus to how to deepen the quality of cooperation.On the basis of the previous research,this paper suggests that we should actively explore the synergy between China and the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union in the specific promotion process,take the active implementation of trade facilitation,wto-x,industrial cooperation and other provisions in the agreement as the basic work,make use of the two wheel drive of FTA and FTZ,adhere to the principle of "easy before difficult,step by step" and take Russia as the breakthrough point,Gradually promote docking cooperation from bilateral to multilateral and from low quality to high quality.