| As the main body of energy supply in China,coal enterprises have been playing an important role in the development of social economy.Since 2012,China has entered the new normal economic development mode,and the economic growth has shifted from high-speed track to medium-high speed track.With the economic growth decreasing year by year,the business risks of various industries are increasing,and the debt and leverage ratio of enterprises are gradually rising.At the same time,the decline of economic growth slows down the demand for coal consumption,and the coal supply capacity exceeds the demand.The coal market in China deteriorates,the industry benefits decline sharply,and the debt problem becomes increasingly prominent.The heavy debt burden puts enterprises in trouble and poses a major threat to national energy security.In recent years,the supply side reform of the coal industry has improved the industry benefit slightly,but the asset-liability ratio is still at a high level.By 2018,the average asset-liability ratio of the coal industry was still around 66%,about 9.2 percentage points higher than that of industrial enterprises above designated size.In 2018,the General Office of the State Council issued 《The guideline on strengthening the asset-liability constraints of stateowned enterprises(SOEs)》.It clearly pointed out that for SOEs,the asset-liability ratio early warning line and key supervision line should be set up in different industries.It is necessary to scientifically assess the debt risk status and classify and continuously monitor the SOEs,whose asset-liability ratio exceeds the early warning line and key supervision line.Therefore,"deleveraging" is still an important problem faced by the coal industry at present.It is of great theoretical and practical significance for the coal industry to deeply study the threshold of leverage ratio and the deleveraging mechanism to prevent debt risk and achieve sustainable and healthy development.Following the policy thinking,this paper combined with the relevant basic theory,calculated the reasonable threshold of the leverage ratio of coal enterprises,constructed the comprehensive leverage index of coal enterprises,explored and constructed the key elements and mechanism of the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap model,analyzed the structural relationship of the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap elements and designed the operation mechanism.In order to clarify the leverage of coal enterprises early warning line and key supervision line,realize the classified supervision of coal enterprises,guide the direction,strategies and measures of coal enterprises’ deleveraging,promote the coal industry to continuously reduce the leverage ratio,solve the debt risk,optimize the capital structure,realize the development out of difficulty,and then promote the stable operation of social economy and sustainable and healthy development.Through in-depth study,the main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,we expounded the research background and put forward the main research orientation from the national macro level,industry micro level and policy level;According to the problems,this chapter reviewed the relevant literatures at home and abroad from four aspects: the connotation and definition method of leverage ratio;the reasonable threshold measurement of leverage ratio;the causes of high leverage and debt risk evaluation;the deleveraging mode and mechanism.This chapter clarified the definition method of leverage ratio of coal enterprises: single index leverage ratio and comprehensive leverage index,and expounded the shortcomings and research space of existing research.Secondly,research on the reasonable threshold measurement of leverage ratio of coal enterprises.We combed and analyzed the relevant theories of enterprise capital structure as the theoretical basis;taking the coal industry as the research object,using the quarterly data of listed companies from 2008 to 2018,we constructed a panel fixed effect model,studied the correlation between leverage ratio and enterprise performance,and found that there was an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between leverage ratio and enterprise performance;on this basis,the chapter constructed the threshold panel data model to measure the reasonable threshold of leverage ratio of China’s coal enterprises,and made clear that the early warning line and key supervision line of leverage ratio were49.460% and 71.815%;divided the status of leverage ratio into low-risk,medium risk and high-risk;finally,taking the listed companies as an example,we determined the that the leverage ratio of coal enterprises is in the state of medium and high risk,and analyzed the risk categories of each enterprise,initially identified the enterprises that may need to be included in the deleveraging ranks.Thirdly,construction and evaluation of comprehensive leverage index of coal enterprises.Based on the risk management theory and debt management theory,the leverage risk factors of coal enterprises were comprehensively extracted,and a multidimensional and multi-level comprehensive leverage evaluation system of coal enterprises was constructed.The index system covered 17 evaluation indexes of decisionmaking level,borrowing level,maturity level,evaluation level and environment level.Then,the entropy weight method was used to determine the weight of each index,and the evaluation model was established based on the entropy weight TOPSIS method;taking the coal listed companies in 2018 as an example,we calculated the comprehensive leverage index,concluded that the overall risk of coal listed companies is controllable,but there are significant differences among individuals,and the distribution of debt risk is extremely uneven,classified and analyzed the comprehensive debt risk status of enterprises,determined the enterprises that need to be included in the deleveraging ranks,and analyzed the key areas that deleveraging enterprises should be promoted;finally,on the basis of the causes of internal risks,we introduced external stakeholders such as central government,local government suppliers,customers,financial institutions and citizens to make an in-depth analysis of the external mechanism and risk transmission path of the high leverage problems,and put forward relevant suggestions.Fourthly,identification of the key elements of the deleveraging mode of coal enterprises.Firstly,we analyzed the optional mode of deleveraging and its advantages,disadvantages and applicability,and proposed that the current mainstream mode of deleveraging was the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap mode;secondly,based on the qualitative analysis method of grounded theory,we made an exploratory analysis on the key elements and mechanism of market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps of coal enterprises with relevant literature.Finally,five main categories,including legal system,supervision status,analysis and decision-making,operation process and implementation effect,as well as 15 categories,and 52 related concepts,were extracted to construct the key elements and mechanism model of market-oriented debt-to-equity swap under the background of deleveraging;and we identified that laws and regulations,supervision status were external cause factors,analysis and decision-making,operation process were internal cause factors,implementation effect was the result factor.Among them,the cause factors had an impact on the result factors,and there was a relationship between the cause factors.Fifthly,research on the structural relationship of factors in deleveraging mode of the coal enterprise.According to the analysis results of grounded theory,this chapter constructed the structural relationship model of market-oriented debt-to-equity swap elements of coal enterprises under the background of deleveraging,established the structural relationship hypothesis between the four factors of laws and regulations,regulatory status,analysis and decision-making,operation process,and the structural relationship hypothesis between the various factors and the implementation effect,designed the questionnaire and measurement scale,and obtained the data from the survey,using the structural equation model based on partial least square method(PLS-SEM)to analyze the structural relationship model and the hypothetical relationship.The hypothesis of structural relationship was verified and corrected,and the influence degree and action path of direct and indirect causal relationship among various elements were clarified.Meanwhile,the key elements and action mechanism of market-oriented debtto-equity swap of coal enterprises were verified,which laid a foundation for the subsequent construction of the operation mechanism of market-oriented debt-to-equity swap.Sixthly,research on the operating mechanism of coal enterprises deleveraging.From the reality of investigation,this chapter analyzed the practical difficulties faced by the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap of coal enterprises;then,by using the game theory,this chapter deeply analyzed the stakeholders and their optional action strategies in the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap system of coal enterprises,and constructed the overall game framework of the stakeholders in the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap;finally,combined with the analysis results of the structural relationship of factors,this chapter established the overall game framework of the stakeholders in the marketoriented debt-to-equity swap system of coal enterprises,designed the operation mechanism of key links,including the tripartite cooperation mechanism in the analysis and decision-making stage of debt-to-equity swap,as well as the pricing mechanism of debt-to-equity swap,post investment management mechanism and equity exit mechanism in the operation process stage.The simulation analysis was carried out,and the corresponding conclusions and suggestions on mechanism design were obtained,which guaranteed the implementation of debt-to-equity swap and achieved the sustainable deleveraging goal of coal enterprises.The main innovations of this study were as follows:(1)This paper established the fixed effect model and threshold effect model based on panel data,quantificationally calculated the reasonable threshold of leverage ratio,and determined the early warning line and key supervision line of coal enterprise leverage ratio;established the coal comprehensive leverage index calculation model based on Entropy-TOPSIS method,and further clarified the target enterprises that should pay attention to and early warning for deleveraging;analyzed the external mechanism and risk transmission path of high comprehensive leverage index;(2)This paper analyzed the key elements and mechanism of the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap of coal enterprises.The key elements and mechanism model of the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap of coal enterprises under the background of deleveraging was constructed with the legal system,regulatory status,analysis and decision-making,operation process and implementation effect as the core.At the same time,this paper constructed the structural relationship model and hypothesis of key elements;designed the questionnaire and measurement items,used the PLS-SEM method to clarify the structure of the key elements;(3)This paper used Game Theory to construct the overall game framework of the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap,which included the government,coal enterprises and the bank strategic investor alliance,and then designed the long-term operation mechanism of the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap,including the tripartite cooperation mechanism in the analysis and decision-making stage of the market-oriented debt-to-equity swap,the pricing mechanism,post investment management mechanism and equity exit mechanism in the operation process stage,and put forward corresponding policy suggestions. |
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