| The formation and continuation of Local implicit debt in China is directly connected with the two fields of finance and finance.On the one hand,it is financed in the financial market as an enterprise,and on the other hand it has the credit endorsement of local government.Although it has supported China’s high growth in a certain period,it has also brought many problems.As far as the current situation is concerned,academic circles have fully discussed the fiscal and financial risks contained therein,but there are few analyses on how local government hidden debt affects the effectiveness of financial markets.Therefore,based on the specific background of the central government’s continuous measures to prevent and resolve local hidden debt risks in recent years,this paper selects some representative reform strategies,analyzes and evaluates their impact on the effectiveness of urban investment bond market,and tries to further enrich the research in this field.The core research contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the reform of local implicit debt management is conducive to improving the effectiveness of the guarantee of Urban investment bonds,so that the guarantee terms can not only improve the rating,but also reduce the credit spread of urban investment bonds.Moreover,the role of local debt management reform(mainly "43 Document")is not only to increase the effective demand for guarantee services in the market by weakening the "implicit government guarantee",but also to improve the credit service quality of guarantee institutions by reducing the "administrative intervention" and promote the supply-side reform of guarantee market.Due to"no.43”promulgated in 2014,before the government’s recessive guarantee effect in area should be larger,less financial pressure and administrative interference factors are main effects on low credit level of the city,this article is based on the two perspectives and deepened the government’s recessive guarantee administrative intervention effect after analysis found that in areas less financial pressure,And for platform companies with low credit rating,local debt management reform has a more significant effect on improving the effectiveness of urban investment bond guarantee.Secondly,the local implicit debt management reform measures can reduce the implicit guarantee of urban investment bonds by the government and improve the pricing effectiveness of urban investment bonds(earnings information effectiveness).Based on the orthogonal decomposition method of Agarwalhe Hauswald(2010),this paper extracted the information of "implicit government guarantee" and confirmed the influence path of "mixed ownership reform of Urban investment bonds→ reduction of implicit government guarantee→enhancement of the effectiveness of urban investment bond market".At the same time,this paper clarifies the main influence mechanism of mixed ownership reform on government implicit debt risk:Firstly,mixed ownershipreform is beneficial to reduce operational losses of Urban investment companies.Secondly,the mixed ownership reform reduces the strategic burden borne by Urban investment company,but the impact on the social burden is not obvious.The findings show that equity diversification makes the different nature of the shareholders in the pursuit of self-interest maximization in the process of the formation of checks and balances mechanism,reduce the proportion to do not have comparative advantage industry investment,thus reducing the city for the company’s strategic burden,its corresponding improved profitability at the same time,these are conducive to reduce government’s recessive debt risk.However,mixed ownership reform has no significant effect on the reduction of losses caused by social functions of Urban investment company.Thirdly,in the long run,measures to reform local implicit debt management will help improve the quality of ratings.After the bond market is "broken",the relative market position of rating agencies declines,making it easier for them to compromise with bond issuers and issue higher ratings.However,as bond defaults spread to provinces(municipalities),the government’s implicit guarantee gradually withdrew,the overall market power of both rating agencies and bond issuers reversed,and the degree of inflated credit ratings by rating agencies decreased.On the whole,after the "no bailout" reform of the bond market in 2014,the credit rating quality of China’s bond market showed a trend of "first decline and then rise",and the reduction of rating quality mainly occurred between 2015 and 2018,and the rating quality rebounded between 2019 and 2020.Among them,urban investment companies and urban investment bonds have significantly less effect on improving the rating quality than other non-urban investment bonds.This shows that although the bond market has broken down,urban investment bonds are still subject to a certain degree of implicit government guarantee,and the rating quality of urban investment bonds given by rating agencies is lower than that of non-urban investment bonds.From the perspective of the three clues(guarantee,rating and pricing)of policy reform on the effectiveness of the urban investment bond market,the policy implementation to some extent weakened the implicit government guarantee or administrative intervention,can improve the effectiveness of the urban investment bond market.In this paper,based on the viewpoint of the bond market effectiveness,recessive debt management reform in the regions of study is effectiveness can improve the bond market,the local debt governance can make debt guarantees,rating and pricing can more fully and effectively reflect all kinds of information,improve the efficiency of financial resources allocation,hope to know more comprehensive place hidden debts management reform,It provides effective support for the government’s classification policies.In addition,based on the analysis of all kinds of local government debt management reform is weakened the government’s recessive guarantee validity and administrative intervention to improve the bond market,which is beneficial to improve the financial markets in the constraints,the role of local government credit improper expansion,clarify the government debt and the debts of the enterprise boundary,prevent major fiscal and financial risks. |
