| Financialization is a dynamic process,which the focus of economic activities in a country or region shifts from the industrial sector and other service sectors to the financial sector,the importance of financial institutions,financial tools,financial markets,and financial elites has continued to increase.One of the characteristics in the modern society is that economic activities and financial activities are inseparable,but finance is the core.When the center of economic activity shifts,various resources flood into the financial sector,there will be a growth effect of financialization.Since the 1990 s,especially since China’s accession to the WTO,China has steadily integrated into the international system and its economy has continued to develop at a high speed.Meanwhile,driven by the financialization,liberalization,and globalization of the world economy,the trend of China’s financialization has gradually formed and the degree has been continuously improved,its growth effect has gradually become apparent and expanded.Especially in the past 10 years,the growth rate of China’s economic has slowed down,regional economic imbalance has intensified,and the growth gap between the FIRE and the non-financial industry has widened.It is essential to do further researches about the mechanism and effects of China’s financialization on the growth of real economy,regional economy and corporate value to solve the following questions.For example,to what extent financialization causes these problems,whether financialization is a companion of economic recession(or stagnation)or a catalyst for economic overheating.In this context,analyzing the growth effect of China’s financialization has important theoretical significance and practical value.This thesis takes the growth effect of China’s financialization as the subject and based on a summary of the relevant theories of financialization(as shown in Chapter 1),aims to solve four problems.(1)The degree and evolutionary characteristics of China’s financialization.The main content is that based on related theories,especially relying on the connotation and extension of financialization,construct an indicator system that includes the proportion of financial assets,the proportion of the added value of the financial industry,the proportion of financial profits,and the proportion of employment in the financial industry.And then synthesizes the four sub-indicators by the principal component analysis.The result can show the characters of the process of China’s financialization and its trend changes.The second chapter “The Measurement and Characteristics of China’s Financialization” mainly answers this question and provides a basis for the follow-up study on the growth effect of China’s financialization.(2)The growth effect of China’s financialization on the real economy.The main content is that in order to analyze that how China’s financialization affect the real economy growth,and compare the different and time-variable effects,based on the endogenous economic growth theory,the threshold regression method and TVP-VAR model method were used separately.When selecting indicators,use the change of China’s financialization index as the core explanatory variable to indicate the change in the degree of financialization;use the growth rate of real economy GDP,which excluding the financial and real estate industries,as a proxy variable for the growth of the real economy.The third chapter “The Growth Effect of China’s Financialization on the Real Economy” mainly answers this question.(3)The effect of regional financialization on regional economic growth.The main content is that by using the SYS-GMM method,based on the provincial panel data,divide China into four regions,and analyze the effect of different regional financialization on economic growth.When selecting indicators,use the proportion of provincial financial value added to describe financialization of regions,GDP per capita is used to measure the level of regional economic growth.The fourth chapter “The Growth Effect of China’s Regional Financialization on Regional Economy” mainly answers this question and expect to understand the causes of regional economic growth differences from the perspective of financialization.(4)The motive of non-financial corporate financialization and the effect of it on the corporate value.The main content is that through the OLS regression analysis,analyzing whether the motive of non-financial corporate financialization comes from capital management motive or market arbitrage motive.Using threshold regression models to compare the impact of corporate financialization on corporate value under different enterprise sizes and shareholder incentive levels.When selecting indicators,from the perspective of financial assets distribution,the proportion of financial assets is used to measure the degree of corporate financialization,cash inflows are used to represent capital management motive,and profits from financial activities are used to represent market arbitrage motive.The fifth chapter “The Effect of Non-financial Corporate financialization on Corporate Value” mainly answers this question.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows.First,China’s financialization shows an upward trend with a certain volatility.In the first quarter of 2002,China’s financialization index was only-2.357,and then increased to3.009 in the fourth quarter of 2019,which is the maximum financialization index during the sample period.Overall,China’s financialization index has risen sharply.However,the upward trend was also accompanied by fluctuations.China’s financialization index fell to the first trough value of-2.871 in the first quarter of 2005,which was the lowest value during the sample period,and then reached the first peak value of-0.176 in the fourth quarter of2007.Then,in 2008 it fell to the second trough value of-0.970 in the second quarter.The index turned from negative to positive only after 2008 Q4,and reached the second peak of1.401 in 2009 Q2.Since then,the index has continued to fall back to the fourth quarter of2013.In the third quarter of 2011,it fell to the third trough value of-0.703,and reached the third peak value of 2.669 in the second quarter of 2016;the fourth trough value of 1.088 appeared in the third quarter of 2018,and reached the highest value in the sample period in the fourth quarter of 2019 The value is 3.009.Second,in order to maximize the growth effect,the current China’s financialization should be reduced.The threshold effect shows that when the change of financialization index is less than-0.420,the coefficient is 0.041.When the change of financialization index is between-0.420 and-0.378,the coefficient is the largest,which increased to 0.058.When the change of financialization index is larger than-0.378,the coefficient is the smallest,which fell to 0.016.China’s financialization and the real economy growth shows an inverted Ushaped relationship between these two variables.It means that when financialization is in the appropriate range,its positive effect on economic growth can be optimal.The timevarying effect shows that the short-term impact of China’s financialization on the real economy growth is stronger.As time goes by,the impact gradually weakens,and the intensity and direction of the impact are different,which is time-varying.Third,the impact of regional financialization on economic growth is different and unbalanced.Due to the unbalanced development of China’s regional financialization,the growth effect on regional economic growth is different.The financialization in the western region has a significant negative impact on the economic growth,which the coefficient is-0.047.The financialization in the central region has an unobvious negative impact on the economic growth,which the coefficient is-0.010.The financialization in the northeast region has the greatest positive effect on economic growth,which the coefficient is 0.265.The financialization in the eastern region is the highest,but the growth effect of financialization on economic growth is smaller than that of the northeast region,which is only 0.120.Fourth,the China’s non-financial corporate financialization is mostly motivated by market arbitrage,and there is a positive U-shaped nonlinear relationship between nonfinancial corporate financialization and corporate value.The coefficient of financial profits to non-financial corporate financialization is 0.0062,and the coefficient of cash inflows to non-financial corporate financialization is only 0.0002,which proves that the non-financial corporate financialization is more motivated by market arbitrage.After introducing the square term of the lagging non-financial corporate financialization,the coefficient of it to corporate value is 3.427,which proves that there is a positive U-shaped nonlinear relationship between non-financial corporate financialization and corporate value.The threshold regression analysis used enterprise scale and equity incentives as the threshold variables respectively,it found that although non-financial corporate financialization can promote corporate value in a certain extent,but when the corporate scale is too large,the positive growth effect is no longer significant,there is even the possibility of a negative impact,the coefficient changes from 3.267 to-0.374.Similarly,only when equity incentives are in a reasonable threshold,the positive effect of non-financial corporate financialization on corporate value can be optimal,which is 1.162.When equity incentives are too low,the positive effect of non-financial corporate financialization on corporate value is no longer obvious.When equity incentives are too high,the effect of non-financial corporate financialization on corporate value is significant negative,which the coefficient is-1.047.The above conclusions show that within a certain range,scope or limit,financialization is beneficial to the real economy growth,regional economic growth,and corporate value growth.Therefore,financialization cannot be blindly pursued,nor simply denied.In the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics,we have to deepen the structural reforms on the financial supply side,control the "degree" of financialization,and improve the "quality" of the real economy.The financial sector must return to its roots and insist that it should services to the real economy growth and help to coordinate with the regional economy development.And guide non-financial enterprises to focus on their main business to create value.Through these ways,it will be helpful to the high-quality development of China’s economy.The marginal contribution of this thesis are as follows.First,defining the financialization based on the transform in the status of China’s financial sector in economic development.Through the principal component analysis,the one-sidedness of a single indicator is avoided.And it also ensures the objectivity and rationality of sub-index weights,reduces the loss of information in the original index.Second,the multi-dimensional and multi-method analysis in the growth effect of China’s financialization on economic growth has enriched the relevant literature.The flaws existed in this thesis are as follows.The analysis in the growth effect of regional financialization on economic growth only discussed the contribution of regional financialization,and it does not further analyze whether the imbalance in regional economic development is caused by differences in regional financialization.In addition,although this thesis compared the empirical results to relevant literature,further analysis and excavation are needed. |
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