Research On Driving Mechanism And Simulation On Guidance Mechanism Of Express Packaging Recycling Behavior Of Chinese Urban Residents

With the rapid development of China’s economy and the increasing improvement of people’s living standards,China has become the most developed country in the world for online shopping.The express industry plays an important role in today’s society.The rapid development of online shopping not only brings convenience to residents’ life,but also produces a large amount of express packaging waste,which not only brings great pressure to the ecological environment,but also threatens residents’ health.In recent years,China has gradually strengthened the control of the recycling industry and paid more attention to the overflow of express packaging waste.However,at this stage,neither the policy level nor the implementation level has been systematized and largescale.In the long run,in addition to the government’s guidance on the recycling of express packaging waste from a macro perspective,the recycling efforts made by residents as participants are also particularly important.Through the quantitative analysis of the data collected from the questionnaire,this study explores the express packaging recycling behavior and driving factors of Chinese urban residents based on the recycling behavior attitude dimension and recycling behavior cognition dimension at the individual psychological level,the situational feedback dimension and social community capital dimension at the government community level.Verify the action mechanism of each dimension variable on express packaging recycling behavior and recycling behavior intention,and explore the driving mechanism of each dimension variable.Then,the Bayesian regularization neural network simulation is carried out for the scientificity of the prediction of the intention of express packaging recycling behavior from the attitude cognitive dimension,situational feedback dimension and historical recycling behavior dimension,and the residents’ preference for the selection of express packaging recycling path and the market share of the recycling path are deeply analyzed.Based on the previous research results,this thesis simulates and evolves the express packaging recycling behavior intention of urban residents from a multi-dimensional perspective.Finally,according to the research results of the empirical and simulation parts of this thesis,this thesis puts forward suggestions to guide Chinese urban residents to participate in express packaging recycling.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:First,the measurement system of Express Packaging Recycling Behavior and its driving factors of Chinese urban residents is constructed,and the research scale is developed and designed.(1)Determined from the residents’ individual difference variables,the residents’ attitude cognitive dimension at the psychological level,and the situational capital dimension at the government community level,to measure the residents’ Express Packaging historical recycling behavior and recycling behavior intention.(2)This thesis analyzes the current situation of Express Packaging Recycling Behavior and recycling behavior intention of Chinese urban residents at the present stage,and finds that the historical recycling behavior of residents is not ideal(the detection rate of inferiority value is 54.9%),especially interpersonal recycling behavior.In contrast,residents are more willing to participate in recycling in the future.(3)Historical recycling behavior and habitual recycling behavior have differentiated performance in individual difference variables except gender.The second is to use the Path analysis method is used to measure and analyze the relationship between social community capital dimension,situational feedback dimension and individual difference variables under the background of Express Packaging Recycling Behavior.The results show that(1)In the social community capital variables,the direct and indirect effects of community trust in each behavior path are very obvious,and its correlation with the social community relationship is the highest,indicating that the community should create an opportunity for residents to communicate and consolidate and improve the trust relationship between them.(2)As an intervention measure of Express Packaging Recycling Behavior,situational variables must pay attention to the importance of the timing of measures.Moreover,the perception of social norms and economic incentives at this stage have not brought their expected role into full play.(3)Residents aged 31-40 with master’s degree or above should become the focus of future research;In addition,as the backbone of family and society,residents aged 31-40 in this study are more keen to participate in relevant community activities.Therefore,these people can set an example for their children and inspire others to act in a pro environmental way to some extent.Thirdly,using the Mediated Moderation Models to put the influencing factors of residents’ psychological level under the background of community and society,and verify the mediating role and regulatory mechanism of situational feedback dimension variables and social community capital dimension variables in the influence of attitude cognitive dimension variables on Residents’ Express Packaging historical recycling behavior and behavioral intention path.The results show that when the contextual feedback dimension variable is the intermediary variable and the social community capital dimension variable is the regulatory variable(1)Among the independent variables,values and recycling cognitive focus are strongly regulated in the path that affects residents’ historical recycling behavior and recycling behavior intention;Herd mentality,behavior result perception and perceived behavior control are also directly regulated by social community capital variables when they are mediated by economic incentive effect,policy effect perception or public publicity effect.(2)Among the mediating variables,the mediating effect perceived by social norms is the strongest;The effect of economic incentive is similar to the perceived force of policy effect;The effectiveness of public publicity generally plays a weak intermediary role in the effective path.(3)Among the moderating variables,community relations and community evaluation play a more moderating role;The regulation of community participation is less.(4)Among the 105 simple adjustment effect paths tested,98 paths were significantly adjusted by social community capital variables;Among the 420 paths tested,91 paths were perceived by social norms,and there was an effective mediation effect;After being mediated by the effectiveness of economic incentives,the perception of policy effects and the effectiveness of public publicity,there are 90,96 and 96 paths with intermediary regulatory effects respectively.And most of the paths are mediated,and the first half and second half of the paths are effectively adjusted by social community capital variables.It shows that the Express Packaging Recycling Behavior or recycling behavior intention of Chinese urban residents is mediated and driven by most attitude cognitive dimension variables and situational capital dimension variables.Fourth,(1)Taking the planned behavior theory and attitude behavior situation theory as the theoretical framework,add the historical recycling behavior as the expansion variable,and predict the express packaging recycling behavior intention of Chinese urban residents.After the regression analysis of the selection of variables and the prediction effect of variables to ensure the effectiveness of variables,the principal component analysis method is used to extract 15 secondary variables into 8 principal components,which are used as the input of Bayesian regularization neural network.A three-layer neural network model of 8-15-1 is constructed.The trained neural network model makes the predicted value of the test set fit the measured value to a high degree,which further shows that the selection of variables of attitude cognition dimension,situational feedback dimension and historical recycling behavior dimension,as well as the training of neural network model are reasonable.(2)Using the joint analysis method,this thesis evaluates the preference of Chinese urban residents to choose the recycling path in the process of express packaging recycling.The preference choice of recycling path is discussed in terms of population difference and preference difference,so as to get more targeted suggestions on the construction of recycling path.It is found that most residents pay high attention to "recycling mode" and "recycling distance";According to the results of cluster analysis,the respondents can be divided into "positive attempt type","balanced preference type","clear preference type" and "negative participation type";Based on the utility value of attribute level in the recycling path combination,three different methods are used to simulate and predict the market share of each recycling path combination,so as to screen the recycling path combination(door-to-door recycling-Free-QR code)that not only meets the market operation efficiency of express packaging recycling companies,but also improves the residents’ participation rate in express packaging recycling.(3)On the basis of considering the variables of residents’ attitude cognitive dimension and situational capital dimension,and based on the specific action mechanism and driving mechanism between variables,this thesis constructs a venism simulation model to predict residents’ express packaging recycling behavior intention,and adds residents’ evaluation of the attractiveness of express packaging recycling behavior to the model,so as to obtain practical simulation results from a multi-dimensional perspective.The results show that,in contrast,the sub variable optimization under the dimension of situational capital will have a stronger effect on Residents’ intention to participate in express packaging recycling behavior.Under the condition of limited resource investment,focus on the recycling cognitive focus,environmental responsibility and behavior result perception under the attitude cognitive dimension,as well as social norms,community relations and community evaluation under the situational capital dimension.Other variables can ideally improve residents’ express packaging recycling behavior intention even if they maintain the existing level.The construction of an attractive express packaging recycling path can further enhance the recycling intention of residents.The popular recycling path mainly has the following attribute characteristics: door-to-door recycling or recycling distance is less than 1km;Cash(including mobile payment)is the method of receipt and payment;The existing express order form will continue to be used on the express packaging.It is simulated that(4-11)the recovery behavior intention of path 4in the sixth year can reach 37188.20 units,which is 12424.70 units higher than the simulation result of the basic situation in which all dimensional influencing factors maintain the status quo.It can be used as an optimization reference paradigm to boost the intention of residents’ express packaging recycling behavior in the future.Finally,based on the discussion,analysis and deduction of the previous research results,this thesis puts forward targeted measures to improve residents’ recycling participation from the cognitive dimension of Chinese urban residents’ attitude towards participating in Express packaging recycling behavior,the dimension of situational capital,the guidance of recycling behavior,and the specific construction of Express packaging recycling behavior path.It is expected to provide guidance suggestions on Residents’ participation side and reference for the construction of government community side for the improvement of Express packaging recycling behavior rate in China in the future.There are 133 figures,106 tables and 337 references in the thesis.