Study On The Carbon Quotas Allocation And Pricing Mechanism In China’s Unified Carbon Market

With the increasingly serious global warming problem,many countries in the world have begun to work together to curb the trend of global warming.As a responsible big country,China has made commitment to reduce carbon emissions for many times.Learning from the experience of the European Union Emissions Trading System(EU ETS),China has launched the carbon emissions trading in seven pilots,such as Beijing,Shanghai and Tianjin,so as to accumulate experience for the construction of a national unified carbon market.This dissertation studies the carbon quotas allocation and pricing mechanism in China’s unified carbon market.Based on the findings,this dissertation puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations for the construction of China’s unified carbon market.Firstly,this dissertation constructs the carbon emissions allocation model based on equity and efficiency principle.By solving the nonlinear programming model,whose objective functions are “the minimum carbon Gini coefficient” and “the minimum total cost of national emission reduction”,we can obtain the reasonable allocation result of carbon quotas.The study results give quantitative carbon intensity reduction task,carbon quotas quantity and carbon emission reduction cost of each province.The results show that the carbon intensity reduction task of 30 provinces in China is between 36%-59%,which is different because of the actual situation in each province.The carbon quotas quantity of most provinces in 2020 is larger than that of2015,and China’s carbon emissions have not reached its peak.The carbon Gini coefficient in 2020 is smaller than that of 2015,which verifies the equity of the allocation result.The total emission reduction cost under optimal allocation is less than that of unused carbon quotas allocation model,which verifies the efficiency of the allocation result.By comparing with the results of entropy weight method,it is verified that the way of solving weight by nonlinear programming model is more reasonable than entropy weight method.Secondly,based on the the optimal allocation result,this dissertation constructs the theoretical model with the objective function of the minimum economic cost of each province,and analyses the equilibrium price of China’s unified carbon market.On the basis of the equilibrium price,this dissertation has studied the trading strategies of different provinces,the cost effectiveness of carbon market and the setting of the auction ratio in China’s unified carbon market.The results show that the equilibrium price of China’s unified carbon market is 41.43 yuan / ton.There is a negative correlation between the equilibrium price and the total amount of carbon quotas.In the unified carbon market,16 provinces are expected to be the sellers of carbon quotas,and 14 provinces are the buyers of carbon quotas.Carbon market has cost effectiveness,and the establishment of carbon market can save 27 billion 555.3million yuan of emission reduction cost than that of no carbon market.The total emission reduction cost of the country can be reduced by 35.68%.The highest auction rate of carbon quotas at the initial stage of the carbon market can be 5.82%.Thirdly,this dissertation makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of carbon emission price in China’s carbon pilot by using the method of econometrics.It also studies the impact of carbon forward trading policy on the price trend of carbon quota.The results show that the carbon emission price in China is greatly influenced by macroeconomic,domestic energy prices,foreign energy prices,climate and other factors.The forward trading of carbon emission has a significant impact on the trend of carbon price,which can be helpful for the price discovery.Based on the perspective of China’s unified carbon market,this part of the study is the supplement and verification to the current research on the influence factors of the carbon emission price,which provides a theoretical basis for the policy formulation of the carbon market.Finally,based on the above study results,this dissertation puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions for the construction of the unified carbon market in China.Specifically,we should strengthen the top-level design of the total carbon quotas,optimize the quota allocation plan,improve the management level of carbon assets,establish and improve the carbon emission verification system,gradually expand the coverage of the carbon market,and promote low carbon technical innovation and other contents.The contributions of this dissertation lie in three points.Firstly,the improvement of the carbon quotas allocation method.The current research has begun to consider the equity and efficiency of carbon quotas allocation at the same time.However,how to measure equity and efficiency and how to deal with the relationship between equity and efficiency have not yet formed a consistent view.In this dissertation,the carbon Gini coefficient and carbon emission reduction cost are used as indicators to measure equity and efficiency.A multi-objective nonlinear programming model of carbon quotas allocation is established.Based on the current policy background and national condition background,the equity and efficiency of allocation are treated equally important.Finally,the reasonable carbon quotas allocation results are obtained.The carbon quotas allocation issue is discussed from a new perspective.Secondly,the quantitative study on the auction ratio of carbon quotas in China’s unified carbon market.On the basis of the existing researches,this dissertation constructs the microeconomic theoretical model of the equilibrium price in the carbon market and makes a quantitative study on the setting of the auction ratio in the unified carbon market.It provides theoretical support for the formulation of China’s carbon market auction policy.Thirdly,the in-depth study of the price mechanism in the operation of carbon market.This dissertation studies the influence factors of carbon emission price in China.On the basis of macroeconomic factors and domestic energy price factors,the extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature climate factors and foreign energy price factors have been added and a further analysis have been made.In addition,this dissertation also makes an empirical analysis on the impact of China’s carbon forward trading policy on carbon price,which provides an empirical reference for the formulation of China’s carbon finance policy.The study result of this dissertation is a useful supplement to the initial pricing theory and the allocation theory of carbon quotas.It provides a theoretical support for the policy making of China and other countries’ carbon market.It also lays the foundation for the continuous development and innovation of China’s carbon financial market.