An Empirical Study On The Dynamics And Influencing Factors Of The Rural Households Consumption Poverty In China

Since the reform and opening up,China has made great achievements in anti-poverty and made outstanding contributions to the eradication of absolute poverty in the world.The number of rural poor in China has decreased from 250 million in 1978 to5.51 million in 2019,and the incidence of poverty has decreased from 30.7% to 0.6%.By2020,China has won the battle against poverty,and has lifted all the rural poor out of poverty under the current poverty standards.Rural households with incomes slightly higher than the income poverty line tend to reduce their current consumption when social security is insufficient,and the analysis using income as the poverty standard often ignores the plight of these people.That is,poverty caused by insufficient consumption still exists,especially in rural households.In the context of eliminating absolute poverty,the problem of relative poverty has become increasingly prominent.In December 2020,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the“Opinions on Realizing the Effective Connection between Consolidating and Expanding the Achievements of Poverty Alleviation and Rural Revitalization”,which proposed the new goal of poverty governance.It can be predicted that China will enter the stage of relative poverty governance.In order to better consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation and prevent new poverty and poverty-stricken families from returning to poverty,it is necessary to analyze poverty not only from a static perspective,but also from a dynamic perspective.Therefore,through the analysis of the degree and dynamic changes of consumption poverty of rural households in China,and based on the perspective of consumption structure,this paper analyzes the root causes of consumption poverty and its dynamic change influencing factors,and puts forward targeted and operable policy suggestions to alleviate consumption poverty,which has important theoretical value and practical significance for China to eliminate consumption poverty and realize the effective connection between consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization.Through combing and summarizing the literature,this paper believes that the research on rural household consumption poverty mainly focuses on static measurement and evolution analysis,and rarely involves dynamic change analysis.From the macro perspective of economic development and the micro perspective of individual family characteristics,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of consumption poverty,ignoring the heterogeneity of the impact of consumption structure and consumption class.Therefore,under the realistic background of poverty caused by insufficient consumption,this paper takes rural families as the research object,and analyzes the root causes of consumption poverty and the influencing factors of dynamic changes from the perspective of consumption structure.Using the micro data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper first measures the occurrence and dynamic changes of consumption poverty by using FGT index and poverty transfer matrix,and compares and analyzes the differences of rural household consumption poverty in different regions and different household characteristics,aiming at a comprehensive analysis of rural household consumption poverty;Secondly,it analyzes the characteristics of rural household consumption level and consumption structure,the impact of economic growth and various consumption on consumption poverty and the change of poverty index,and analyzes the influencing factors of rural household consumption level and consumption structure from the five dimensions of income,household head characteristics,livelihood capital,social insurance and consumption environment,in order to find a path to reduce the degree of consumption poverty.Finally,using Probit and other empirical research models,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the dynamic change of consumption poverty from the four dimensions of household head characteristics,livelihood capital,family characteristics and regional characteristics,in order to give suggestions and policy measures to prevent non poor families from falling into the poverty trap and help poor families out of the poverty trap.The main content of this paper is divided into the following seven parts: the first part describes the research background and significance of this paper,explains the research content and construction of the research framework,introduces the research data and research methods,and points out the possible innovations and research deficiencies of this paper.The second part defines the basic concepts required for this study,expounds the basic theories required for this study,and combs and analyzes the connotation,measurement,dynamics and influencing factors of poverty in China through literature research.The third part measures the occurrence of absolute consumption poverty and relative consumption poverty of rural households in China by using FGT index from a static perspective,analyzes the absolute consumption poverty and relative consumption poverty index,and compares and analyzes the differences of consumption poverty of rural households in different regions and different family characteristics.The Multidimensional Poverty is measured by A-F method,and the contribution rate of consumption to multidimensional poverty is analyzed.The fourth part analyzes the dynamic change process and results of absolute consumption poverty and relative consumption poverty of rural households in China from a dynamic perspective by using the poverty transfer matrix,and compares and analyzes the differences in the dynamic changes of consumption poverty of rural households in different regions and different family characteristics.The fifth part analyzes the consumption level and consumption structure characteristics of rural households and rural poor households,analyzes the impact of economic growth on rural household consumption poverty,and analyzes the influencing factors of rural household consumption level and consumption structure by using quantile regression and other empirical research methods.Based on the regional differences and the differences of family characteristics,this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of the impact of consumption level and consumption structure.The sixth part uses Probit and other empirical research methods to analyze the factors affecting the entry,exit and sustainability of rural household consumption poverty based on absolute and relative poverty standards,and the factors affecting rural households’ never poverty,temporary poverty and chronic poverty.The seventh part summarizes the main research conclusions of this paper,and puts forward relevant policy recommendations according to the main research conclusions.