| Since the 1990s,with the continuous expansion of the current account deficit of the United States and the current account surplus of emerging market countries and oil exporting countries,the problem of global economic imbalance has aroused widespread concern in the world.In the new century,the International Monetary Fund(IMF)formally put forward the concept of "global imbalance",which specifically refers to the phenomenon that a single country or some countries have a large trade deficit,while the corresponding trade surplus is concentrated in other countries.Among them,the current account imbalance between the United States and China and other developing countries has always been the focus of a series of viewpoints and researches in this field.In fact,with the accelerating pace of economic globalization and the aggravation of industrial division of labor and capital flow in the international scope,the unbalanced characteristics of global economic development have always been quite significant,whether from the perspective of balance of payments of individual or some countries,or from the perspective of economic development of developed and developing countries in the world Imbalance has always been an important driving force for the continuous evolution of world political and economic patterns.In today’s world,although the basic living gap between countries and regions has been significantly reduced,and the number of people getting rid of poverty and disease is increasing,the "new generation of inequality" around education,science and technology and climate change is also emerging.Many global imbalances,including financial and economic development,still need more and more people Class work together.At the beginning of 2020,the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the world and Russia Ukraine conflict have brought huge impacts on the global economic development.From the initial emergency supplies in many countries to the subsequent "virus tariff" and the partial reconstruction of global industry and value chain,most international institutions and authorities have to admit that the global economic recession is inevitable.In the post epidemic era,although the time,scope and degree affected by the epidemic situation are different,the pace of economic recovery and getting rid of recession in various countries is inevitably different.However,the epidemic not only has a direct impact on Residents’consumption and economic and trade exchanges,but also exposes the problem of global economic imbalance in a broader and deeper level.For example,under the impact of the new epidemic,the export of bulk commodities of low-and middle-income countries has been seriously affected.The obstruction of capital flow and technology transfer in the international scope is bound to have an inhibitory effect on the industrial transformation and upgrading of these countries.At the same time,due to the barrier of the epidemic situation,the normal economic and trade exchanges between countries are delayed or even cut off,resulting in a sharp rise in costs,which is just like being new Coronavirus imposed additional "tariff",which also affected and changed the original supply chain system.Therefore,combined with the original global economic imbalance,many changes in the market,consumption and investment patterns under the background of the epidemic not only exacerbated the "Matthew effect" that had existed before,but also made the international reserve supply-demand relationship and economic structure adjustment more complicated.Therefore,whether from the long-term inherent imbalance situation or from the short-term impact and impact of the new crown epidemic,the causes and adjustment of the current global economic imbalance are discussed in depth,and the impact and challenges brought to China are scientifically analyzed and reasonably predicted,especially the systematic research on the internal and external adjustment and specific response options of China should be carried out For a major practical subject with important theoretical significance and practical value.A thorough and systematic study of the causes and effects of global economic imbalances and China’s basic countermeasures under the new situation will not only help to further improve the conceptual system and analytical framework of global economic imbalances and their causes and impacts,but also help the relevant economies to clarify the imbalance status and its sustainability and other key issues The adjustment of model and related policies to improve the coping strategies.According to the theme and research object,the main contents of this paper are as follows:The first is about the definition of global economic imbalance and other related basic concepts and research progress at home and abroad.This part is the theoretical basis and logical starting point of the full text research,mainly by defining the relevant basic concepts and systematically summarizing the research progress at home and abroad to build the research foundation and analysis framework.Specifically,in terms of the definition of relevant basic concepts,in addition to defining the core concept of "global economic imbalance",we should also sort out and analyze such important concepts as"international monetary system","current account and foreign trade" and "dollar standard and dollar hegemony".In fact,this is to give consideration to the connotation and extension of the global economic imbalance,and initially outline the research scope and discourse level of this paper.In terms of research progress at home and abroad,this paper mainly combs and summarizes the evolution process,characteristics,causes and impacts of global economic imbalance,and gives a brief evaluation.The second is the analysis and Research on the evolution process and basic characteristics of global economic imbalance.This part is actually composed of two aspects,one is the evolution process of global economic imbalance,the other is the basic characteristics of the current global economic imbalance.In terms of the research process of global economic imbalance,this paper divides it into stages,that is,according to the two global economic imbalances led by the United States since the 1980s and the global economic imbalances faced by the global financial crisis in 2008.By comparing the earlier global economic imbalance led by Britain,we can see the changes of the financial development level of the United States after the establishment of the Bretton Woods system and its important role in the world economic and financial development.In terms of the basic characteristics of global economic imbalance,this paper mainly focuses on the polarization of current account,the liquidity and hegemony of US dollar,the change of international division of labor and industrial structure,and the sustainability of global economic imbalance.Therefore,this part of the study laid a necessary foundation for the subsequent analysis of the causes and effects.The third is the analysis and Research on the basic causes and persistence of global economic imbalance.The analysis of the basic causes and influencing factors of global economic imbalance is the basis and key to accurately grasp the evolution and development trend of the world economic pattern.From a global perspective,the global economic imbalance is mainly the imbalance in the world economy,trade,monetary and financial fields.The reasons can be analyzed from different dimensions and levels.This paper mainly analyzes the three dimensions of market,system and current pattern.In the aspect of market,it mainly refers to the flow of production factors and international division of labor;in terms of system,it mainly comes down to the status of US dollar and the international monetary system;on the current pattern,it mainly grasps the changes of international economic order under various shocks.From the perspective of the current global economic imbalance,the change of international division of labor and trade pattern is obviously the most important basic reason,and the hidden factors include factor flow,technological innovation,comparative advantage,trade protection,economic system,exchange rate policy and consumption habits.Finally,combined with the basic cause analysis,this part selects variables to empirically test the persistence of global economic imbalance.The fourth is the analysis and Research on the impact and challenge of global economic imbalance on the world economy and China.This part of the study is not only the necessity to undertake the above research on the evolution process,characteristics and causes,but also one of the main contents of this paper.In this part,this paper analyzes the impact of global economic imbalance from two aspects:one is the impact of global economic imbalance on the world economy,including the expansion of international trade disputes and frictions,"double deficits" and "double exports",the distortion of internal economic structure and policies,and the international economic order and its changes under the hegemony of the US dollar;the other is the impact of global economic imbalance on the world economy It is the challenge brought by the current global economic imbalance,especially many challenges to China’s economic development.This paper studies the necessity and actual progress of global economic imbalance adjustment,exchange rate reform and foreign exchange reserve management,policy coordination among major economies,and the realistic challenges brought by globalization and unbalanced development of global economy.In this part,this paper not only fully considers the evolution process and basic causes of the global economic imbalance,but also closely combines the complexity and persistence of the global economic imbalance under the current situation.The fifth is the analysis and Research on China’s effective response to the global economic imbalance.The global economic imbalance has brought and will bring a series of important impacts and challenges.It is very important to strengthen communication and cooperation in view of the global economy and its imbalance,and actively respond to it according to its own reality,whether from the perspective of world economic development or only from the perspective of China’s economic development.From the point of view of both South and North cooperation,they should be committed to building a fair and equitable international economic order.At the same time,in terms of the high-quality development goal of China’s economy at this stage,as an important emerging market country with an increasing level of openness,it is obviously more necessary to actively take measures to effectively prevent and resolve internal and external risks.Based on this study,this part mainly deals with the internal structural adjustment,external structural adjustment,international monetary system and international trade development,and puts forward a coping strategy framework based on the above analysis of causes and effects.One belt,one road to expand domestic demand and the solid economy,is the basis for the adjustment of internal structure.The "one belt and one road" and the leading regional economic cooperation can create better conditions.The response to the development of the international monetary system and international trade is an important guarantee for enhancing stability.The innovation point of this dissertation mainly has the following two aspects:Firstly,in the existing research on the causes of global economic imbalance analysis,most studies generally focus on one aspect,such as international trade and capital flows,financial development,and the international division of labor system,and therefore lack a global perspective and a systematic perspective,which is necessary.Therefore,the three major elements presented in this study,including institutions,markets,and economic structural transformation,can well encapsulate and systematize the piecemeal analysis described above.Secondly,Panel Data model and VAR model are constructed according to relevant theories.Based on the influence factors of global economic imbalances,and through the empirical test on the impact of global imbalance on the world and China’s economic and social development,the results provided very important empirical evidence for accurately grasping the current global economic imbalance and its impact.Based on this,China’s policy system to deal with global economic imbalance is put forward from the perspective of public policy. |
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