| The inherent relationship between financial development and regional economic growth has attracted the attention of regional economic researchers in different periods and regions because of its unique theoretical value and practical significance.However,in different time and space,the existing research has not reached a consistent conclusion on the inherent relationship between the two.Especially for underdeveloped provinces in western China(e.g.Qinghai Province),there exist significant differences in spatial location,population density and resource endowment compared with other more developed provinces,and there is also heterogeneity between regions at different spatial scales in the region.It is more necessary to explore the internal relationship and effect of financial development in such regions on regional economic growth,and then provide a framework for building a comprehensive,reasonable and differentiated financial institution system and formulating regionally differentiated economic and financial policies to effectively promote economic growth.Meanwhile such research on these areas is relatively weak,which also highlights its practical significance and importance.Starting from the existing research,based on the relevant economic and financial theories and combined with the spatial characteristics of Qinghai Province and the characteristics of financial and economic development at this stage,this paper puts forward the following hypotheses about the effect of financial development on economic growth in Qinghai Province:Firstly,the effect of financial development on provincial Economic growth has produced a certain effect,but the effect is various in different periods;secondly,the role of financial development is mainly transmitted through the intermediary of fixed asset investment;thirdly,the impact of financial development in Qinghai Province on economic growth has a threshold effect;finally,at this stage,the financial and economic development level of Qinghai Province is limited,and the synergistic effect of financial development and economic growth needs to be further explored.In order to verify the above hypothesis,this paper selects the economic and financial data of Qinghai Province from 2001 to 2019 at different spatial scales and builds a model for empirical research.Firstly,on the basis of descriptive analysis of economic and financial data,an indicator system for analyzing the financial development level of Qinghai Province and its various cities and prefectures is constructed from three dimensions of financial scale,financial efficiency and financial intermediary.The financial development level index,which measures the financial development level of Qinghai Province and its each region synthetically;secondly,taking Qinghai Province as the object,comprehensively using the vector error correction model,the intermediary effect model and the threshold regression model,it studies,on the overall level,the long-term effects of Qinghai Province’s financial development on economic growth;Finally,the panel model,variable coefficient panel model,panel vector autoregressive model and panel threshold model are constructed using the data of various cities and autonomous prefectures in Qinghai Province,and the short-term effects of regional financial development on economic growth at different spatial scales are discussed.The above research has drawn the following conclusions:From a long-term perspective,taking Qinghai Province as a whole and adopting the vector error correction model to draw a general conclusion that financial development of Qinghai Province has a positive effect on economic growth,that is,financial development of Qinghai Province has a positive overall effect on economic growth.Through the further analysis of the influence mode and size through the intermediary effect,it is found that fixed asset investment is an important way for the financial development of Qinghai Province to promote economic growth.However,in the short term,after considering the heterogeneity of cities and autonomous prefectures in Qinghai Province,whether it is to use Qinghai Province as a system composed of cities and prefectures to adopt a panel model,or use a variable coefficient model to study each city and prefecture separately,Financial development has a negative effect on economic growth in the short term.Further Granger test and impulse response analysis through panel vector autoregression also found that due to the current low level of financial and economic development in Qinghai Province,the synergistic effect of financial development and economic growth has not yet been formed.Whether using the threshold regression model in the long run or using the panel threshold regression model in the short run,financial development and its constituent dimensions(financial scale,financial efficiency,and financial intermediation)have a threshold effect on economic growth;in addition,government intervention and fixed asset investment can also promote or hinder the effects of financial development and its constituent dimensions(financial scale,financial efficiency,and financial intermediation)on economic growth.That is,the promotion of economic growth by financial development requires financial development and its constituent elements,economic growth itself,as well as external environments such as government intervention and fixed asset investment to meet certain conditions.This is also the main reason why financial development has different long-term and short-term effects on economic growth.Based on the above research conclusions,combined with the actual situation of economic and financial development in Qinghai Province,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for rationally using financial development to promote economic growth.And the future research directions are clarified in four aspects:building a comprehensive research framework,refining the research objects,improving the measurement of financial development and economic growth,and enriching research methods and means. |
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