| Although it is said that "A family with surplus food is not a panic",an excessive level of savings can lead to internal and external imbalance of a country’s economy,which is inconsistent with the new development strategy of "double cycle".In recent years,China’s economic structure has been constantly adjusted,and the level of total national savings has fallen,but from a worldwide perspective,China’s savings are still at a high level,which is a long-standing consensus in domestic and international literature.When analyzing the causes of the high level of gross national savings in China,most of the literature focuses on the savings in the residential sector and the government sector,while the attention to the savings in the corporate sector is far from adequate.As one of the important reasons for the high level of gross national saving,the high level of corporate saving obviously suppresses domestic demand and is not conducive to the smooth flow of domestic and international circulation.How to understand the importance of studying the issue of corporate savings? This thesis argues that an in-depth investigation of the factors influencing corporate saving decisions can combine macro and micro level studies,and at the same time has more important theoretical and practical significance.At the macro level,studying the potential causes of high corporate savings can help to understand the logic of changes in aggregate national savings and provide an effective basis for macro policy formulation.At the micro level,studying the influencing factors of corporate saving decisions can help to understand and predict the motives behind corporate investment and financing behavior.In terms of theoretical significance,studying corporate saving can provide theoretical support for exploring how to expand China’s domestic demand.In practical terms,studying the issue of corporate saving can help to understand why China’s current account surplus has continued to increase since its accession to the WTO and reached a peak in 2007.Therefore,this thesis focuses on corporate saving in China and digs deeper into the potential causes of the phenomenon of high corporate saving in China.In the established literature,most of the discussions on the factors influencing corporate saving decisions take the perspective of corporate income and expenditure and view corporate saving as a passive outcome.There is also some literature that takes a different view and considers increasing savings as an active behavior of firms.In addition,some other literature points out that there are significant differences in the factors influencing the level of savings for different types of firms(e.g.,state-owned versus non-state-owned firms).Based on previous studies,this thesis tries to find out whether there is a certain factor that influences the saving decision of firms in China and is a potential cause of the high level of corporate saving and hence aggregate national saving in China.How can this factor be explored? If the domestic circulation is to flow smoothly,the supply system must match it.Since 2012,China’s economy has been transformed into a "new normal" with high-quality growth.To this end,our government has been deepening the supply-side structural reform,aiming to release more vitality for the economy.As one of the breakthroughs in the supply-side reform,the zombie enterprise issue has received particular attention in recent years.The causes of zombie firms are mainly government and bank interventions,resulting in the market not playing a decisive role in resource allocation.Theoretically,zombie firms are defined as "bloodsucking" enterprises that have lost their profitability but are able to obtain more credit resources at lower costs.Regardless of the definition,it captures the inefficiency of zombie firms and their distortion of the balanced allocation of social and economic resources.The results of existing studies show that zombie firms are a barrier to the efficient allocation of resources and impede the production and development of nonzombie firms.Are zombie firms also a potential factor contributing to the high level of corporate savings in China? There is little discussion on this in the existing literature.This thesis chooses to link the economic phenomenon of zombie firms with the saving decision of micro enterprises,to investigate whether the existence of zombie firms has an impact on the saving decision of non-zombie firms,and to explore the potential factors influencing the saving decision of enterprises in China.This thesis consists of the following research.1.How do zombie firms affect the savings decisions of non-zombie firms? And what are the mechanisms of their impact? Established research shows that the existence of zombie firms seriously squeezes out the investment of non-zombie firms,inhibits the innovation ability and employment growth of non-zombie firms,and aggravates the problem of resource mismatch.The negative externalities of zombie firms are thus more serious.By distorting credit allocation,zombie firms crowd out external financing from non-zombie firms,which may induce non-zombie firms to turn to endogenous financing,affect non-zombie firms’ saving level,and become a potential influencing factor of firms’ saving decision.Therefore,this thesis explores the impact of zombie firms on non-zombie firms’ saving decisions from the perspective of zombie firms.2.For firms with different financing constraints,what are the differences in the effects of zombie firms on their saving decisions? In the established literature,the main factors regarding the causes of rising corporate savings are rapid economic growth,limited competition,underdeveloped financial markets,and low input costs,among which,more studies show that financing constraints significantly enhance firms’ propensity to save.Therefore,there must be heterogeneity in the impact of zombie firms on non-zombie firms’ saving decisions,and this heterogeneity,on the one hand,comes from the financial environment and,on the other hand,from the firms themselves.For this reason,it is necessary to explore the heterogeneity of the impact of zombie firms on their saving decisions in the context of the firms’ own financing constraints.The significance of studying this issue is that,on the one hand,it helps to understand the impact of firms’ own financing constraints on their saving decisions and enriches the study of factors influencing firms’ saving decisions;on the other hand,it can complement the mechanism by which zombie firms influence non-zombie firms’ saving decisions.3.Combined with the macro level,do zombie firms interfere with the transmission of monetary policy and thus have an impact on the savings decisions of non-zombie firms? Theoretically,monetary policy affects firms’ saving decisions by changing their financing constraints and liquidity supply.Specifically,during periods of monetary policy tightness,firms’ access to exogenous financing becomes more difficult and their willingness to save increases,while when monetary policy is accommodative,increased access to external liquidity reduces firms’ willingness to save.However,when there are zombie firms,does the channel for monetary policy to provide liquidity to firms remain open? This thesis proposes and tests the hypothesis that when monetary policy tightening leads to liquidity tightening,the presence of zombie firms may worsen the difficulty of external financing for non-zombie firms,making non-zombie firms more dependent on endogenous funds and affecting firms’ saving decisions.This thesis aims to answer the above questions and concludes the following after an in-depth study.1.Corporate savings decisions are affected by zombie firms and the external financing environment.By constructing a theoretical model,the mechanism of zombie firms’ influence on non-zombie firms’ saving decisions is explored.The model shows that the increase in the share of zombie firms leads to the increase in the cost of external financing for non-zombie firms,which induces non-zombie firms to rely more on endogenous financing and increase the optimal saving level;when the financial market environment in which the firms are located is relatively tight,the saving motivation of non-zombie firms will also be enhanced.The empirical test results show that the presence of zombie firms affects non-zombie firms’ saving decisions and significantly pushes up the saving level of non-zombie firms in the same industry,and this effect is heterogeneous,as follows: when the proportion of zombie firms increases,non-state enterprises in the same industry,enterprises in industries with high dependence on exogenous financing,non-exporting enterprises(especially non-state non-exporting enterprises),and enterprises in regions with low financial development enterprises in regions with low levels of financial development are more likely to increase their savings.2.Corporate saving decisions are affected by their own financing constraints.From the perspective of zombie firms,the differences in the effects of zombie firms on the savings levels of non-zombie firms with different financing constraints are studied in conjunction with non-zombie firms’ own financing constraints,and the influencing factors of non-zombie firms’ savings decisions are summarized.It is found that the presence of zombie firms induces non-zombie firms in the same industry to increase their savings,and this effect is particularly strong when the financing constraints on non-zombie firms are greater.In addition,the propensity to save is stronger when financial market conditions are worse.The findings help to understand the impact of financing constraints on firms’ saving decisions,provide supporting evidence for the impact of zombie firms on non-zombie firms’ financing decisions,and complement the channels and mechanisms through which zombie firms influence non-zombie firms’ saving decisions.3.Corporate saving decisions can be influenced by macro monetary policy.The presence of zombie firms distorts the allocation of credit resources and significantly increases the level of internal savings of non-zombie firms.This phenomenon is more serious when monetary policy is tight.The reason for this is that when monetary policy tightening leads to liquidity tightening,the presence of zombie firms worsens the difficulty of financing for non-zombie firms,causing firms to shift their financing more to endogenous funds.Therefore,the impact of zombie firms on monetary policy transmission is more pronounced for firms with high financing constraints,such as nonstate and small and medium-sized enterprises,firms from industries with high dependence on exogenous financing,and high-growth firmsThe policy recommendations of this paper are as follows.1.Continue to actively promote supply-side structural reform,reasonably dispose of zombie firms,and help them revive or exit the market at the lowest cost through restructuring and reorganization to remove the cannibalization of credit resources by overcapacity and ineffective capacity,which will help alleviate the external financing constraints of non-state enterprises,promptly unblock the unfavorable factors blocking the effective transmission of monetary policy,enhance the ability of financial services to the real economy,and effectively release economic vitality.2、The provincial areas(especially non-eastern areas)should actively accelerate financial market-oriented reforms to promote local enterprises to reduce savings and expand investment,thus further promoting the development of the local economy.3.More precise monetary policies should be implemented to focus on easing the financing constraints of private enterprises,small and medium-sized enterprises,and high-growth enterprises;and continue to actively promote the market-oriented reform of interest rates to reduce non-market factors that interfere with the supply and demand of funds,so that finance can better support the development of the real economy. |
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