| Digital currency innovation based on Fin Tech provides a new way to solve Chinese monetary and financial development,but in terms of specific path selection,whether to bet on private digital currency or firmly follow the path of CBDC is a problem that must be understood in a unified manner.For this problem,it is helpful to further alleviate the credit problems in the monetary and financial process,give full play to the financial support role of monetary and financial to the growth of the real economy,release the vitality of China’s economic growth,and make it become an emerging financial instrument to support the rise of China’s economy.Combining the development of traditional currency,non-legal digital currency and legal digital currency,this paper analyzes the organization mode,operation mechanism,price formation,and problem risk of digital currency.It also discusses the economic effects of legal digital currency and provides scientific basis for our country to choose the path of digital currency from the positive and negative aspects.Due to the entirely different forms of credit creation,the two types of digital currencies are likely to play diametrically opposite functions and roles in the policy transmission channel.Based on the attributes of securities investment,private digital currencies represented by algorithms have inherent investment-oriented intrinsic value.On this basis,currency prices are affected by market supply and demand and speculative factors.In addition,private digital currencies also have currency properties,which is more evident in stable coins.It is precise because of currency attributes that there must be some kind of substitution relationship between private digital currency and CBDC.The study found that av speculators will choose to hold private digital currency when the expected return of holding private digital currency is not less than the risk-free return of holding CBDC.In addition,there is a substitution effect for the speculative demand and transaction demand of private currency.Under the conditions of technological progress and the continuous expansion of the scope of application,the actual transaction demand will squeeze the space for speculative market.Because of this substitution relationship,the authorities’ monetary policy aimed at counter-cyclical adjustment is likely to be disrupted by the existence of private digital currencies.Of course,the central bank directly issues legal digital currency and fully grasps the circulation information.In theory,it can support and strengthen monetary policy,but in practice,it is also affected by the scale of issuance and the scope of application.The economic effect of the non-statutory digital currency industry is discussed with the SCP analysis paradigm of industrial organization.The private digital currency market structure is analyzed from three aspects: concentration,product differentiation,and market entry barriers.Generally speaking,the private digital currency market is currently in an oligopolistic market structure.Private digital currency has a large first-mover advantage and is highly recognized by the market.Bitcoin entered the earliest and occupied the largest market share.The new currency has intensified competition in the market.The market behavior of private digital currency exchanges is divided into price behavior and non-price behavior.Price behavior is mainly reflected by the exchange’s fee rate,and the price competition between businesses is relatively fierce.Most exchanges adopt a tiered rate system.Users are divided into multiple tiers according to the transaction amount or the balance of tokens held on the platform.Different tiers set different rates.The exchange will set rate rules according to key customer groups.Some exchanges will also issue platform tokens to pay for handling fees,enhancing customer stickiness.The empirical research on the factors affecting the competitiveness of private digital currencies found that network activity,network security,and public opinion attention positively affect the competitiveness of currencies with good market expectations.To respond to the scientific question whether the non-legal digital currency based on blockchain technology can become the mainstream currency in the future.From a technical point of view,blockchain technology’s current scalability,storage and computing bottlenecks hinder the possibility of non-legal digital money becoming a circulating currency.Secondly,based on the brief review of the evolution of China’s currency system,after thousands of years of Chinese monetary,economic,historical and cultural traditions,the unification of currency system has been deeply embedded in the blood gene of "great unity",especially in the period of political stability and national strength,the central government has always firmly controlled the monetary dominance.Unified currency system,independent currency system and stable currency value effectively safeguard the vital interests of the broad masses of the people.From the perspective of risk resistance,although non-legal digital currency has some local risk resistance,it does not have systemic risk aversion ability,and investment attributes dominate.The price of non-legal digital currency is intrinsically consistent with the fluctuation direction of foreign exchange rate and currency futures price,which encourages the price of non-legal digital currency to fluctuate in the same direction.Therefore,under the trend of currency digitization,decentralized non-legal digital currency form is hardly a reliable policy choice for our country from the perspective of technology,history and hedging.From micro to macro,systematically analyze the economic effects of CBDC.In terms of money supply,CBDC is an alternative to demand deposits,but because China’s CBDC does not pay interest,and there is competition from third-party payment,the substitution effect of CBDC is limited.However,the issuance and circulation of CBDC will expand the currency multiplier by reducing the cash leakage rate,excess deposit reserve ratio,and legal deposit reserve ratio.The distribution and circulation of CBDC can provide new ways and means for the implementation of monetary policy and promote monetary policy by shortening the time lag,improving policy accuracy,improving the observability of pricebased intermediary market interest rates,and the efficiency of interest rate transmission The transformation from quantity-based to price-based will ultimately optimize the effect of monetary policy.The influence mechanism of CBDC on the macro economy is constructed from the three dimensions of finance,technology,and economic growth.The financial technology represented by legal digital currency firstly provides technical support for economic development and fundamentally improves the efficiency of economic development by reducing the overall leverage of the system and improving the effectiveness of counter-cyclical regulation of monetary policy.Based on this,this paper suggests accelerating the research and development of legal digital currencies and expanding the scope of pilot projects,while actively participating in the drafting of international regulations on digital currencies,selectively liberalising the jurisdiction of overseas nodes and jointly establishing an integrated digital infrastructure. |
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