The Study Of Strong Earthquake Fatality Model And Dynamic Loss Assessment System Design

Rapid assessment of losses caused by strong earthquakes can provide government with scientific basis for post-earthquake relief and reconstruction efforts. Earthquake emergency needs reliable and timely earthquake assessment results. Unfortunately, there are usually great differences between the estimated losses and the actual losses because of the incompleteness of disaster information (strong earthquake can ruin the infrastructure of telecommucation and transportation). For the purpose of making approximate loss assessments, we should dynamically rectify assessment results using the up-to-date scientific research results and the disaster information feedback from earthquake affected areas.In order to accomplish the dynamic earthquake loss assessment, this paper dicussed the following aspects: firstly, by comparing different methods or models for earthquake fatality estimation, we chose the earthquake fatality model which was used in USGS PAGER system, and established the fatality modols for regional application; secondly, considering the differences between the empirical ellipse or circle isoseismal models and the actual isoseismal maps, this paper summarized some possible scientific methods and technology for rectifying the estimated isoseismals; thirdly, based on the fatality models that had been established and the isoseismal rectifying methods mentioned above, the paper finished the preliminary design of earthquake loss assessment system that could realize dynamic loss assessment; Besides, in the last part of the paper we designed the earthquake disaster issue and information collection system for the right to know of the public, which was based on the rapid assessment results of the previous system.The thesis briefly reviewed several models for earthquake casualty estimation developed by researchers. According to the empirical estimation model of PAGER system which was released by USGS in October 2007, in this paper we developed two regional applicability earthquake casualty estimation models using loss records of 128 earthquakes which struck from 1970 to 2008. In addition to that, using 234 earthquakes occurred between 1980 and 2007, we established a linear regression relationship between the number of the seriously injured and the number of death caused by earthquakes. At last, by comparing estimations of casualty using the models with the actual number of victims in 2008 WenChuan earthquake and 2005 JiuJiang earthquake, these models can make approximate estimations.In the second part, the paper discussed all the possible methods to rectify and determine isoseismals. The isoseismal rectifying methods were classified into two categories, the actual recording method and the statisitical method based on regression relationships. The actual recording methods include ShakeMap instructmental intensity, finite fault rupture process inversion, after shock sequence, coseismic displacement, remote sensing image and disaster information feedback from affected areas. Besides, the paper discussed how to determine the isoseismals using these statistical regression models, such as the regression relationships between magnitude and the surface rupture length, intensity of fault end and the epicenter intensity, the ratio of major axis or minor axis between adjacent intensity areas, etc.In this paper, we gathered vector format ShakeMaps of 42 earthquakes released by USGS and by referring to relevant papers and documents found that there were only 7 earthquake cases which had after-earthquake field investgation isoseismals. By quantitatively or qualitively comparing the digitalized field investigation isoseismals with the ShakeMaps in the unified coordinate, we could conclude that there were obviouse differences between them, however, the ShakeMap could be used to identify the location of macro-epicenter or the rupture directions.Using the finite fault inversion results of 5 earquakes and the field investigation isoseismals, we compared their geometry parameters and concluded that the finite fault inversion could be used to identify the marco-epicenter, determine the attenuation direction of extreme-intensity areas and geometry parameters of intensity areas. In this paper, we reviewed the studies done by researchers about using aftershocks, the coseismic displacement and remote sensing image to determine the isoseismals. Besides, we put forward that the disaster code of"12322"SMS could be mapped into contour line utilizing the Kriging interplating algorithm. We got the disaster code isolines of 2008 WenChuan earthquake by using 74 short messages and Kriging algorithm. Using the method that the disaster codes in short messages to be interplated into isolines provides us a new way to get the disaster information, and it needs to be justified or modified in the future.In order to utilize relevant regression relationships to determine the isoseismals, specifically, the regression relationships between magnitude and surface rupture length, the intensity of surface rupture ends and the epicenter intensity, the magnitude and the epicenter intensity, we analysed 27 earthquakes with epicenter intensity aboveâ…§in SiChuan and YunNan province (the latitudes lie between N27o and N34o, and the longitudes lie between E99o and E106o). And the statistical analysis results revealed that the ratios of major axises to minor axises had much greater discreteness, on the opposite, the ratios of major axises and the ratios of minor axises in contiguous intensity areas had less discreteness. Therefore, we founded a new approach to determine the isoseismals using the ratios of major axises and the ratios of minor axises in contiguous intensity. By appling this method to estimate the isoseismal of 2008 WenChuan earthquake, we could find that this method could make approximate estimations in high intensity areas but could't fit well in low intensity areas.In the last part of the paper, we reviewed the development of GIS technology and its application in earthquake loss assessment. Based on the established earthquake fatality models and methods to determine or rectify isoseismals put forward previously, we finished the design of earthquake loss dynamic assessment system; besides, we preliminarily deginned the earthquake disaster information issue system. Using the Visual Studio.net 2008 platform and ArcGIS Engine components, we implemented some core functionality of the earthquake loss dynamic assessment system.