Preliminary Research On Forecasting Of The Water Volume In The Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based On The Numercial Model Products

By using 2000-2009 area rainfall data collected from different watersheds of the Yangtze River, we investigate the spatial and temporal characteristic of heavy precipitation. To match the operational forecast of different grass-roots stations, the forecast skill of heavy rainfall provided by JMH,GER and T213 numerical models are evaluated. And according to these results, we build the applied integrated model basing on the prediction of the products. Meanwhile, by taking a good advantage of the data of the precipitation prediction of the radar remote sensing data and the historical data of the hydrological stations, runoff data flood transmission time and flow of value, through a single flow P+Pa～R analysis and rescheduled from the analysis, Ratio～Pa partition fitting effect and inspection of the three gorges reservoir basin, the relationship between runoff and precipitation is established.And the preliminary research on forecasting of the water volume in the three gorges reservoir area based on the numercial model products is taken on. The results are as follows:1) The heavy precipitation over the Three Gorges reservoir basin mainly take place in the May-July, especially over Chong Qing-Wan Zhou and Wan Zhou-YiChang basin. Relating to the forecast, the JMA model is the best and all the three performe well over the Jia Ling river and the Wu Jiang Basin.The forecasting value is smaller than the real value.To the correlation coefficient, the JMA model is the best and the T213 is the worst and all are different over each basin. Finally to exert the comprehensive effects, we establish the multiple linear regression equation and retain the forecasting model of areal rainfall,prodiving the theoretical foundation for rain forecast.2) By using of rainfall value P,Pa calculated by the antecedent precipitation and runoff R and according to the single flow P+Pa～R and Ratio (R/P)～Pa, we build the model of rainfall-runoff; Then we utilize this model and the value provided by the forecasting model of areal rainfall to forecast the inflow of 2008-2009. Taking the predicted value into comparison, it shows that it works well.Meanwhile, in this paper we confirm that putting the report radar data as precipitation rainfall into forecast the future input and production flow in river basin is the best choice. In addition, considering the need of the practical work we put forward construction ideas and specific method for system of the river water prediction system of three gorges reservoir, which facilitates the accurate and valid forecast.