The Nonlinear Statistic Forecast Theory And Method Of The Evolving Process Of Air Temperature

The short-term evolving process of air temperature at the north of east-north in our country is researched, analyses and forecasted by combining dynamical analysis with mathematical statistics analysis, researching physical mechanism of the evolving process of air temperature and establishing the modern analysis theory and method of the evolving process of air temperature with later mathematical theories. Simultaneously, the forecast theory and method of nonlinear time series is established, which combines mechanism of the time space system with analyzing historical data.The paper consists of several parts as following:Firstly, we probe an estimating method with the time-change parameters to overcome the problem with greater errors that us think a dynamical process with the time-change parameters as a static process with the no time-change parameters and forecast the time-change parameters system by the model with the no time-change parameters.Secondly, overcoming drawback of single variable fitting AR models lacking of other variables acting on factor variable, a set of the trace formulas are given about the time-change coefficient matrixes of multivariable fitting AR models.Thirdly, evaluating to statistics quality of the nonlinear model is discussed. That is, firstly to test models and secondly to test residual errors. In fact, it is that nonlinear statistics models have the optimization process step by step. Ultimately, models are up to fitting optima and residual errors are iidN.Fourthly, in this paper, we integrate theories of time series analysis and principles of climate dynamics, research mechanism of the evolving process of air temperature, combine physical analysis with statistical analysis of stochastic process, select forecast factors and construct the mathematical model framework of nonlinear time series according with the evolving feature of air temperature.Fifthly, thinking the evolving regulation of air temperature as a dynamical system in pace with time changing, we investigate the air temperature at certain region in province Heilongjiang and forecast the air temperature at the region by the above method. We also summarize a set of effective nonlinear forecast theories and methods about the short-term regional air temperature.From the contradistinctive forecast in this paper we can see that the method of the dynamic forecast is better than the general method .The method is right, feasible and effective by the proof. We believe that it has the broad prospects in the aspect ofthe nonlinear forecast theory.