Study On Time Prediction And Evaluation Of Landslide Hanzard

China is one of the most serious countries suffering landslide disaster in the world. According to the preliminary statistics, at present, the area threatened by landslides in our country has approximately occupied 1/5 ~ 1/4 of the national land area, and the economic loss caused by collapse and landslide is about 20 billion Yuan every year. Now, it is impossible in our country to have enough economic and technical force to comprehensively control about latent risky landslide disaster spot. Under the condition, the another way of comprehensively preventing and controlling them is carrying out prediction and evaluation research of landslide hazard. Specially, if the occurring time of landslide can be predicted timely and accurately, we may take measures and countermeasures against natural disasters as soon as possible so as to reduce the loss caused by this kinds of disaster to the lowest degree.Based on the above purpose, in this paper, aiming at the questions in the past landslide prediction, such as sole research technique , backward method and theory achievement with weak practical, application and so on, time prediction and evaluation of landslides is emphatically researched from quantitative , qualitative and numerical modeling three aspects on the basis of widely consulting the domestic and foreign documentation and material related to landslides forecast. According to landslide monitor material, landslide quantitative prediction is realized by using landslide prediction and evaluation models; on the basis of experts' experience knowledge, landslide qualitative prediction is realized by using the method and way of expert system; landslide numerical prediction is realized by using simulation method to establish geology-mechanics- distortion model (GMD). On the basis, the method and technical path of landslide comprehensive prediction and evaluation is proposed, which organically combines quantitative prediction qualitative prediction with numerical prediction by using intelligent decision-making support system. At the same time, landslide comprehensive prediction and evaluation information system is preliminarily designed and developed based on the GIS platform. Finally, we choose representative landslides to carry out the actual landslide time prediction and evaluation work, such as Xintan lanslide and Shiliushubao landslide in three Gorges reservoir area.The findings indicates that, this article has realized time prediction and evaluation of landslides from theory method and technical way, and has the stronger prediction function, and provides scientific basis and policy-making support for the landslide disaster prediction.