The Study Of Features On Different Time-scale In Southeast Asia During 1948-2002

Based on the global monthly rain data (PREC viz. Precipitation Monthly Anomalies Over Global Land & Oceans from 1948-2003) created by Chen et al, NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed monthly mean wind data and global monthly SST grid data edited by British Meteorological Bureau, this paper investigates some problems of the climate change of drought and flood of Southeast Asia during 1948-2002. The main contents and results are as follows.Through calculating the precipitation trend coefficient in Southeast Asia, it was found that decline trend occurred in year and season rainfalls except in winter. There are always decline trend in Philippines, on the contrary in Indo-china peninsula.The study on the time series of Southeast Asia average seasonal precipitation points out that the interannual and interdecadal fluctuations of the rainfall are obvious. The drought and flood years in Southeast Asia have been identified and tested by using the Precipitation Reconstruction data set in year and seasons scale from 1948 to 2002, and been made statistic tests. The distribution of drought and flood years takes on a decadal feature in year and seasons.The relations between rainfall and wind fields, SST and ENSO event have been studied. The results suggest that the connection is close between drought (flood) years and warm (cold) events in Southeast Asia. Those also show that rainfall in autumn associates most with ENSO events, and the same in winter. Spring rainfall has weak relation with ENSO events, and there isn't evident relation between them in summer.