Research On Grey Time-series Theory And Application

In people's society, economic and scientific research activities, a lot of datas occur in the light of time order .Time-series analysis appears in the study of this kind of datas, but imperfect observation datas often occur. Because of all kinds of disturbing factor, so it cause that partial information is known and others are unknown. It is impossible that we study the matter by the method of mathematic statistics all-sidely. Whereas, the uncertain system about small sample and poor information are the study object of grey system theories. The actual world is described and recognized accurately by generating and developing the partial known information .So the grey system theory and time series analysis are integrated. The conception of the grey time -series is posted and the relative theories are discussed in this thesis.The theoretic section of this theme is mainly based on grey system theory and method. The generation of grey time-series, incidence analysis, cluster analysis and its predictive model are studied respectively. Particularly, innovation of this thesis is as follows.i) Integrating the relative theory of fuzzy mathematic, improve the theory method of incidence cluster analysis of grey time-series, put forward the conception of grey equivalence relation, make up the fault of cluster analysis of grey system theory.ii) Using C++ builder, develop the application software on several computer formula of grey incidence degree and predictive model GM(1,1), make the practically computing of applied question convenient.In the application section of this theme, the issue about quantization analysis and predictive model of unemployment and employment in the Large-scale Development of the Western is studied by relative theories of grey time-series. Unemployment and employment situation of Shaanxi province isanalyzed from the view of incidence relation of economic development and employment condition. The quantization mathematical model of economic development and employment condition of Shaanxi province is built by using GM model of grey system theory. The employment condition of Shaanxi province is predicted and studied. The satisfying result is obtained.