Groundwater Three-dimensional Numerical Simulation Of North China Plain

Water resources are extremely scarce in North China Plain. Groundwaterutilization is up to 69% of total water utilization, and it has brought about long-termgroundwater overexploitation. Many environmental-geological problems occur, suchas land subsidence, seawater intrusion etc. So it is necessary to evaluate groundwaterresources in this area more exactly for sustaining use of groundwater.In this dissertation, the groundwater numerical modeling is applied to study ongroundwater resources evaluation of North China Plain. The T-PROGS module of thegroundwater modeling system GMS, which makes the best of borehole data accordingto transition probability approach and carries through geologic simulation based onconditional simulation of geo-statistics, is applied to construct the hydro geologicstructure model, then the hydro geologic conceptual model is developed and theregional mass of data of sources and sinks are assigned by GIS, data basement andoutside files of GMS. At last, the hydrogeology-unit flow package makes themintegration and constructs the groundwater numerical simulation model, while theparameters are defined by the materials.The analyses of constructed model show that the total recharge is230.61×108m3/a, the total discharge is 267.18 ×108m3/a, total natural water resourcesis 227.36×108m3 /a and water availability is 213.68×108m3 /a in simulated period(2002a and 2003a). The change trend of groundwater flow net is simulated before andafter startup of South to North diversion scheme. The change trend of groundwaterflow net in current exploitation condition is simulated before startup of South to Northdiversion scheme, and the water lever at the central of the cone of depression inunconfined and confined aquifer is decline by 10-15m. Based on the analysis ofgroundwater supply and demand after South to North diversion scheme in 2010a,predication of ceasing exploitation of groundwater 39.86×108m3/a and 31.48×108m3/a is made through the developed numeric simulation model. The water lever at thecentral of the cone of depression in unconfined and confined aquifer rise by 20-30mafter ten yeas of ceasing exploitation scheme carrying out. So it has significant effecton groundwater lever recovery of North China Plain.