A Study On The Method Of Disaster Weather Forecast Based On Association Rule

Disaster weather, for instance, heavy rainfall, flood, tornado, will usually bring about grave loss to the life and property of people and the construction of national economy. Strong convective weathers have a great deal with the origin and development of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The height and the exceptional dynamic field and thermal field of the Tibetan Plateau can have an effect on the origin and development of MCS, and beget heavy rainfall in Yangtze River Basin. However, the factors that affect the moving of MCS on the Tibetan Plateau are very complex, so it is very important to study and forecast strong convective weathers caused by mesoscale convective systems.In this paper, the trajectories of MCS over the Tibetan Plateau are automatically tracked by area-overlapped method and point-pattern matching method using GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) brightness temperature (Tbb), and then the results of the two methods are compared. Based on these, the environmental physical field values of MCS are abstracted and spatial association rule mining is used to study the relationships between the trajectories of MCS and their environmental physical field values and the relationship between the rainfall of rainstorm center in Yangtze River and the feature values of environmental physical field as well. These are of important value to improve the predicted accuracy of disaster weather and reduce the loss due to it.Six chapters are included in this paper. Chapter one discuss recent study resultsof MCS and heavy rainfall, based on this, methodology is provided. The fundamental principles of association rule of spatial data mining are represented in chapter two. Automatic tracking method based on point-pattern matching of MCS is discussed in chapter three, on the basis of these, some information about MCS, including trajectories, size, intensity, active regions, life characteristics etc, are obtained from June to August in 1999 and 2000. Besides, these results have been compared with that of area-overlapped method in this section. In chapter four, the relationship between the moving out of the Tibetan Plateau and to the east of MCS and their environmental physical field values is analyzed by spatial association rule. It reveals the condition of...