The Forecast And Elusion Of RMB Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one of the most challenging issues in economics and policy research. The frequent and large-range fluctuation of exchange rate is disadvantageous to the economy of every country, in floating exchange rate regime. And that the increases the exchange rate risk and intensifying of the speculation, adds to the instability of economy, reduce the efficiency of resource allocation .There has an important meaning ,if we can correctly forecast the trend and the range of the variation of exchange rate. Our country implements great reformation in the regime of foreign exchange rate management, and managed floating exchange rate regime of RMB emerged based on the supply and demand of market. It would not change as single US dollar any long and the regime of foreign exchange rate would be more flexibility. We chose the period from 1999 to 2006, during the period the regime of exchange rate of RMB changed frequently, the range of variation changed rather largely. And we chose NDF as the variable datum, made the research of forecasting exchange rate of RMB.At first, the thesis made overviews of the researches of exchange rate of RMB. Though the researches are many in quantities, large in range, and some of them are profound, in general speaking, they emphasize particularly on the determination of equilibrium exchange rate, lacked the application of mathematic instruments, and the applications of Time Series are rare. So we designed the research scheme in which econometric models is the main.Exchange rate theory is the guidance of research and forecast, and the thesis discussed the evolvement and diversification of the theory, analyzed various factors that influenced the determination of the theory.The chose of variable parameters is the determination to the result of forecast, the thesis established the economical model with the parameter of NDF. And analyzed comprehensively the NDF including characteristic,advantage etc, comparing it with RMB nominal exchange rate and REER.The thesis compared the applicability amply between each forecasting method and instrument in the paper. Combining the particularity of the influences and the forming mechanism, we designed the forecast instrument of the econometric model.