The Application Of Reliability Analysis On Landslide Stability Of Reservoir Shore

The reservoir bank is one of the most basic geological environments of human survival and engineering activity Studying about the reservoir bank especially stability of the urban reservoir bank, have important realistic meaning. At present, reliability analysis and engineering technic is applied to the stability of reservoir bank step by step.In this thesis we gave an expatiation of the typic method of reliability analysis, and have a contrast. We regard water level of the bank as the random variables in the reliability analysis of stability of the reservoir bank, the seepage fields will take place dynamic change thereupon, this will influence the change of physics mechanics index of the soil body in slopes, we has considered this influence while analyzing the stable state function of landslide. Take some landslide of the Three Gorges reservoir region as an example, we adopt commonly more used technique Janbu while analysing landslide stability, set up steady state equation of landslide, analyses stable reliability of landslide by using the method of reliability analysis, the result indicates that in bank water level 162m, the landslide is in unstable state, Using the theory of central point to analyse, indicate that probability of failure drop instead, when go up from 135m to 145m in water level; As the water level goes up from 145m to 175m, probability of failure increase step by step. As the water level goes down from 175m to 135m, probability of failure increase with persistence, show that the stability of landslide decline as the water level goes down, this result accorded with the conclusion of ultimate-equilibrium analysis method. Using the theory central point and checking computations of reliability to the project measure (only to the gravity type retaining wall) that has already been controlled, derive the reliability formula of the stability slope and against overturning of the gravity retaining wall reclining on the slight slope, regard the water level of the reservoir bank as the random variable too(namely the height of quiet water pressure that the retaining wall receives is a random variable), making the reliability index of the stability in the conservation storage of retaining wall and carrying on computational analysis to random variable parameter situations, indicates that the steady reliability index of retaining wall improves to some extent in the course of conservation storage, namely the destruction probability at this moment is reduced to some extent. The study and conclusion of this thesis have some meaning to the stability research of the bank of urban and prevention and cure project.