Evolution Analysis Of Land Use In Qingdao Economic And Technical Development Zone

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) not only play an important role in globalenvironmental change and sustainable development, but also has become the frontier and thefocus of researches on global change. At home and abroad, a lot of research work were conducted in theory, methods and technologies and made significant progress.Qingdao Economic and Technical Development Zone is chosen as this study area, The traditional interpretation of remote sensing methods and ARCGIS software were used to acquisit the information of land use form Three Landsat TM images in 1995,2000 and 2004, and establish land-use spatial database. Conversion matrix model was used to analysis the number of transformation of the various types of land and a single type of land use dynamics,land use and land composite index utilization rate changes were calculated to analysis the speed of change in land use regional. Qingdao Economic and Technical Development Zone land use pattern of evolution of the landscape was analyzed By calculating the fractal dimension, separation, landscape diversity and fragmentation index landscape index in this ten years.Driven analysis of Qingdao Economic and Technical Development Zone of land-use changes was made From the natural and socio-economic factors two aspects. Factor analysis was made to extract the two impact factor of land use changes in Qingdao Economic and Technical Development Zone by integrating statistical data and using socio-economic software SPSS,and the two factors was named as population and economic growth factor and the level of urbanization factor. Socio-economic factors affecting the land was analyzed by using gray relational model and the results showed that industrial development and the size of the population were correlated the acreage of farmland. Catastrophe theory was used to analysis the seven indicators, The results showed that the number of arable land per capita grain output was mutated in the 10 years 1994-2003 period,and other economic factors such as total population, non-agricultural population, GNP, the total output value of agriculture and industrial product was a smooth change.Finally,Markov chain model was used to of predict the land use structure in Qingdao Economic and Technical Development Zone in the next 13 years. The results was that t the size of cultivated landd will be ramaticly reduced, and construction site will be significantly increase and grassland, water and unused land ratio was also decreasing trend. Therefore, we should formulate relevant policies to protect farmland and the need to increase input in agriculture, improve agricultural technology, and continually enhance the utilization of land in Qingdao Development Zone.